The Detroit Lions and New England Patriots are in Germany for a big international matchup. The Patriots are a bit desperate for a win, sitting at 5-4 and clinging to the final playoff spot in the AFC. The Lions are a little more comfortable in the fifth spot of the NFC playoff race, but if they want to contend in a competitive NFC North, they need this game, too.
So which team has that statistical advantage and will come out on top Sunday morning? Let’s dive into the numbers with our Week 10 Lions
vs. Patriots On Paper preview and prediction.
Note: Stats may be a little lighter this week because one of my bigger resources—NFL Pro—is not available in Germany.
Lions pass offense (12th in DVOA) vs. Patriots pass defense (15th)
The Detroit Lions had their worst passing offense performance last week against a bad—but improving—Dolphins defense. Offensive line struggles were the lowlight of the performance, headlined by the “suspension” of left guard Christian Mahogany and inconsistent play of rookie right tackle Blake Miller. Mahogany is back in the lineup, and that should help the Lions’ passing offense which has remained near a top-five unit for most of the season. They rank:
- Fourth in passer rating (106.5)
- Seventh in yards per attempt (7.8)
- Fourth in dropback EPA (0.237)
- Fourth in dropback success rate (51.0%)
And despite the poor offensive performance, the Lions offensive line is still grading out well as a unit. Though they rank 17th in sack percentage (6.5), they’re fifth in pressure percentage allowed (19.4%), second in PFF pass blocking grade (75.1), and seventh in pass block win rate (54%).
The Patriots pass defense started off strong, but has struggled as of late, even against some of the most medicore-to-bad passing offenses. For the season, they rank:
- 27th in passer rating (100.2)
- 25th in yards per attempt (7.9)
- 24th in dropback EPA (0.151)
- 25th in dropback success rate (48.4%)
For comparison’s sake, all of these rankings except for dropback EPA are below the Lions’ pass defense. So whatever you think of Detroit’s ability to defend the pass, the Patriots have been worse.
But much like Detroit’s pass defense, the one place they thrive is pressuring the opposing quarterback. Thought they’re just 19th in pressure percentage (22.4), they’re sixth in sack rate (8.0%), 11th in pass rush win rate (52%), and second in PFF pass rush grade (82.8).
While EDGE Elijah Ponder leads the team with 7.5 sacks, it’s really New England’s interior pressure that causes havoc. Look out for Christian Barmore (78.1 PFF pass rush grade) and Milton Williams (20 pressures) to give Detroit’s interior offensive line some issues.
But New England’s second is very beatable. Christian Gonzalez is having a down year (50.4 PFF grade) and the Patriots will be down Carlton Davis.
Player to watch: Amon-Ra St. Brown. This isn’t just a Germany thing, St. Brown should thrive against the Patriots’ zone-heavy defense. Brown is the Lions’ best weapon when it comes to recognizing the soft spot in zones, just like last week’s eight-catch, 86-yard performance.
Advantage: Lions +2.5. The Patriots’ pass rush does have a chance to disrupt Jared Goff like the Dolphins did last week, but for most of the day, the Lions quarterback should be picking apart this poor secondary.
Lions run offense (4th) vs. Patriots run defense (10th)
The inconsistency of this rushing attack is still very frustrating to watch, but putting things into perspective, it’s still a very decent run game in Detroit. For the season, they rank:
- 10th in yards per carry (4.4)
- 12th in rush EPA (-0.073)
- Third in rush success rate (46.0%(
Negative plays remain a huge problem, with Detroit’s 20% stuffed rate ranking 25th in the NFL. They are improving in short-yardage situations, though, climbing to 18th in power success rate.
Still, the offensive line—though still plagued by some mental mistakes—appear to be moving people. Detroit ranks fourth in adjusted line yards, eighth in run block win rate, and, as a whole, the Lions entire team is fourth in PFF’s run blocking grade.
Detroit will face a formidable test this week against a run defense that has allowed 100 rushing yards just three times this entire season, and each of their last five opponents have been held at or below 4.0 yards per carry. Though last week’s performance against the Packers’ worst rushing attack in the league should provide at least some hope.
For the season, the Patriots rank:
- Ninth in yards per carry allowed (3.9)
- 10th in rush EPA (-0.123)
- 11th in rush success rate (36.9%)
Interestingly, the Patriots run defense appears more efficient than the sum of their parts. They rank just 16th in adjusted line yards allowed, 16th in run stop win rate, and 21st in PFF run defense grade.
One thing they do thrive in, however, is limiting explosives. They’ve only allowed six rushing plays of 15+ yards (third fewest) and just a single run of 20+ yards (t-fewest). But they’re just okay in short-yardage situations. They’re 10th in power success rate allowed (59%), but sport just a 16% stuffed rate (23rd).
Player to watch: LB Christian Ellis. While the Patriots are not particularly strong up the middle in run defense, Ellis sports the eighth-best PFF grade against the run (82.3), providing a strong second level of defense. The Patriots’ secondary is also active and strong against the run.
Advantage: Lions +0.5. Detroit hasn’t been as explosive as expected running the football this year, but they have found some consistency running for gains of 5-10 yards, and that could be exactly what we see on Sunday.
Patriots pass offense (6th) vs. Lions pass defense (24th)
Despite a horrible start to the year, Drake Maye has seemingly righted the ship—outside of last week’s performance against a very solid Packers pass defense. For the entire year, the Patriots pass offense ranks:
- 11th in passer rating (96.2)
- Third in yards per attempt (8.4)
- 10th in dropback EPA (0.162)
- Third in dropback success rate (51.0%)
Essentially, if the Patriots could stop turning the ball over, they’d be a top-five passing attack. But turnovers have been a serious problem. Maye’s 11 interceptions leads the league and his 4.0% interception percentage is third-highest in the NFL. To sport that dishonor and still produce the 10th-highest dropback EPA is pretty crazy.
So what’s causing the high interception rate? It’s a little bit of everything. An injured offensive line that ranks 21st in pressure rate (23.6%) and 18th in sack rate (6.6%), a quarterback who is still young and figuring things out, and a receiving corps that lost Romeo Doubs for the season and hasn’t had a lot of A.J. Brown available.
But, again, the Patriots passing attack remains pretty dang efficient despite those problems.
I’m still hesitant to believe in Detroit’s defensive improvement through the air. Much of that appears based on simply playing a bunch of poor passing attacks, but the one aspect they have seriously improved on is explosive plays allowed. In the first four games, the Lions allowed 20 passing plays of 20 yards (most in NFL). In the last four games, the Lions have allowed 14 (still t-10th most). For the season, Detroit still only ranks:
- 24th in passer rating allowed (97.5)
- 18th in yards per attempt (7.2)
- 26th in dropback EPA (0.177)
- 24th in dropback success rate (48.3%)
The pass rush (eighth in sack rate, seventh in pressure rate) remains solid, despite an ever-decreasing blitz rate (26.3%, 18th).
Detroit will be without top cornerback D.J. Reed for at least another week, but Brian Branch’s return has allowed them to have a little more flexibility in their coverages, and it has calmed some things down (a little).
Player to watch: Hunter Henry. While Henry is far from 100% as he deals with a foot injury, he remains the biggest threat to Detroit’s defense. Henry is first on the team in receptions (32) and second in yards (361). Meanwhile, the Lions is 31st in DVOA vs. tight ends.
Advantage: Patriots +3. This is the matchup that could change the game. New England, in my opinion, have one of the best passing attacks as long as they can avoid turnovers. The Lions aren’t particularly great at forcing turnovers, creating just eight on the season—only three teams have fewer. So I would expect a pretty strong day from Maye.
Patriots run offense (19th) vs. Lions run defense (22nd)
New England hasn’t run the ball very consistently, although injuries have played a large part in that, particularly as of late. They have a fullback, a running back, and three offensive linemen on IR. Running back TreVeyon Henderson has already been ruled out this week and top running back Rhamondre Stevenson could miss this one, too. Guard Ben Brown has been declared out already, and his backup Walter Rouse is working his way through concussion protocol. Put it all together, and the Patriots’ running game ranks:
- 14th in yards per carry (4.2)
- 24th in rush EPA (-0.149)
- 21st in rushing success rate (36.8%)
That said, running back Corey Kiner has stepped in and provided a bit of a spark in the last two weeks, rushing for 93 yards on just 15 carries, bolstered by a couple of 20-yard runs. Additionally, they are great in short-yardage situations, converting 75% of power situations, ranking fifth in the NFL.
The Lions’ run defense is really starting to come on in recent weeks, with one of their best performances coming last week against a sneaky-good Dolphins run game. Overall, though, the numbers remain pretty pedestrian. The Lions rank:
- 18th in yards per carry allowed (4.1)
- 13th in rush EPA (-0.115)
- Eighth in rush success rate (35.7%)
They’re still being victimized by some early-season explosives given up, but that has settled down considerably as of late.
What has been true pretty much all season is that Detroit has clogged the middle of the field. Led by the strong play of defensive tackles Tyleik Williams and Alim McNeill, anything between the b-gaps has been out of business. Yet, oddly, the Lions rank dead last in power success rate allowed, ceding an 84% conversion rate. So don’t expect many third-and-1 stops from Detroit on Sunday.
Player to watch: Malcolm Rodriguez. Rodriguez is quietly having a very strong season, and with Jack Campbell out for the foreseeable future, his role will continue to increase. Currently, he sports an 83.9 PFF run defense grade (seventh in NFL among LBs) and the third-highest run stop percentage (11.7).
Advantage: Lions +1. With all of the injuries, I just can’t trust the Patriots’ rushing attack. And given that the Lions finally seem to have some answers on defense, this should favor the Lions. The one aspect that could tilt things in New England’s favor, though, is Maye. While he still prefers to throw when he has escaped the pocket, he still does have 219 rushing yards this season, fourth most among quarterbacks.
Last week’s prediction:
While On Paper got wins both straight up and against the spread (6-2 overall, 4-4 ATS), it may have been my least accurate column of the year. I overestimated the Lions’ advantage on offense and underestimated their advantages on defense. I expected a shootout and got a 19-9 win, instead. Sure, I had no idea Mahogany was going to be out, but that doesn’t justify how bad I missed on that one.
To be fair, no one really expected a defensive battle. And the closest prediction in the comment section wasn’t all that close: a 24-16 prediction from The Proudest:
I don’t have photoshop on the road with me in Germany, so as your prize, enjoy this picture of me with a humongous beer in Munich:
This week’s prediction:
The Lions come out with a slight +1 advantage, but the edge in three of the four matchups. As is the case with a lot of games this year, the outcome could come down to that one disadvantage: the Lions’ pass defense. Maye is an electric player with a ton of explosive play potential. Detroit has done better at limiting that as of late, but the only recent quarterback they’ve played who can consistently do that was Jordan Love. If Detroit can repeat their performance from that game, they’ll be in good shape. If not, it could be a long flight home.
Lions 31, Patriots 30.
