Even after recording the best record in their league, winning a pennant, and getting to within a fateful bounce or two of winning the World Series, the road is not always easy in perhaps the league’s most competitive and balanced division. That is precisely where the 2026 Blue Jays find themselves.
2025 was a resounding success, and with much of the core from last year’s American League champions still in tact, expectations will be high this season. Despite that, their division is tough, and they
have nearly a rotation’s worth of good pitchers beginning the year on the injured list. Matching last season’s success will be anything but easy for the Blue Jays, but the potential is there.
2025 record: 94-68 (1st, NL East)
2026 FanGraphs projection: 86-76 (T-2nd, AL East)
While the lineup that propelled the Jays to a pennant last season is largely in tact for 2026, the projected starting group did undergo some changes. Bo Bichette left for the Mets in free agency, signing a three-year $126 million deal. On top of that, Anthony Santander, who signed a five-year deal worth nearly nine figures before his dismal 2025 season, underwent labrum surgery last month that will keep him out for the majority of the regular season.
It was not all losses, however, as they signed infielder Kazuma Okamoto to a four-year from the NPB over the offseason. He began his career in Japan with six consecutive 30-home run seasons, and is coming off of a shortened year where he posted a 210 wRC+ in 293 plate appearances in one of the world’s best leagues. Projections see him as a legitimate everyday bat, with solid power in a well above league-average profile.
Outside of the changes, the lineup still remains strong at the top. After it appeared he may be just about washed with the bat, George Springer bounced back in 2025 with a shocking career year at 35, and he’ll look to ride that wave into ‘26. Daulton Varsho experienced a renaissance as well, setting career-highs across the board and hitting 20 homers in just 71 games. Guerrero is a star despite the occasional ups and downs, and the supporting cast of Addison Barger, Alejandro Kirk, Andrés Giménez, and Ernie Clement is more than serviceable.
On the pitching side of things, the situation is not as sturdy in Toronto. Veterans Kevin Gausman and Dylan Cease lead the way. Gausman had a good bounce-back in 2025, and the strikeout-heavy Cease will look to have one of his own after signing a seven-year $210 million deal this offseason. Max Scherzer returned to the club on a one-year deal to provide some stability in the back of the rotation, but beyond that, things get shaky.
To begin the season, each of Shane Bieber, José Berríos, and hotly-anticipated sophomore Trey Yesavage will begin the season on the injured list. The confidence their two veterans provide for their teammtes will be missed, and Yesavage appears to have ace potential, which the Jays will surely be eager to get back. At full strength this is a rotation that features top-notch talent, with veteran depth that would be highly valuable in a potential October run. The question, however, is when at least most of them can get healthy at the same time.
As for the bullpen, Toronto retains almost everyone who helped them get to the doorstep of a title in the 2025 postseason, with closer Jeff Hoffman, playoff workhorse Louis Varland, and contributors Mason Fluharty, Brendon Little, and Braydon Fisher back in the fold. The notable exception is a free agent swap of Seranthony Domínguez (now of the White Sox) for the crafty-but-effective Tyler Rogers, who signed a three-year, $37 million contract after leading the majors with 81 games pitched in 2026 between the Giants and Mets, recording a 1.98 ERA and 0.944 WHIP.
Coming off of a pennant-winning campaign, the talent and potential in Toronto is clear, but they do not come without some uncertainties. Health is an issue out of the gates, but they also occupy a notoriously competitive division. In the American League East, FanGraphs projects all five teams to go at least .500, and for the Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, and Orioles all to finish within three games of each other. Though it won’t likely finish that way, it’s telling of the balanced and talented state of the AL East, which makes the path to good postseason position difficult for any team, including the defending pennant winners.
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