Game notes
- Time and date: Thursday, November 27 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN
- Location: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium — Memphis, TN
- Spread: Memphis (-5.5)
- Over/under: 59.5
- All-time series: Memphis leads, 6-4
- Last meeting: Navy 56, Memphis 44 — September 21, 2024
- Current streak: Navy, 1 (2024)
Setting the scene
Food, family, and football are the three ‘F’s of Thanksgiving Day. While the brand of football typically associated with the holiday is of the NFL variety, there is one collegiate game offered in the night
slate. The Egg Bowl used to own the night, but the SEC on ABC contract moved Ole Miss and Mississippi State’s annual rivalry to Black Friday, thus thrusting the American Conference into the feature Thanksgiving game.
Last year, Memphis derailed Tulane’s College Football Playoff chances in New Orleans on Turkey Day, and the Tigers make a second-straight appearance on the November holiday. This time, they face Navy in a high-profile American matchup. While Memphis cannot contend for the title game, it can play spoiler to the Midshipmen and secure a third-straight 9-win season in front of its home fans.
Navy Midshipmen outlook
Navy (8-2, 6-1 American) is alive for its first American Conference Championship Game appearance since 2016, but the Midshipmen need some help to get there. They’ll hope either Charlotte takes down Tulane in the stunner of the year or Temple upsets North Texas, in order to have a shot at the crown. First, Navy must take care of its own business and defeat Memphis for the second-straight season.
The Midshipmen are fresh off a bye week, and it came with perfect timing. Quarterback Blake Horvath has dealt with nicks, bruises, and cramps throughout the month of November, and his health is of utmost importance to this Navy team. He’s an extremely tough runner and unafraid of contact, and with those traits, it’s no surprise he stands two yards away from ranking as the FBS’s leading rusher among quarterbacks.
Horvath’s breakout game transpired against Memphis last year, where he threw for 192 yards and two touchdowns, while rushing for 211 and four in a 56-44 upset. This season, the senior has produced six games with at least 110 rushing yards and a touchdown, only needing 14 more yards for his second-straight 1,000-yard campaign. Perhaps his dominance in the run game makes him an underrated passer, and he’s on track for a top 10 passing season in Navy history with 1,290 yards — 63 away from last year’s total, which ranks 10th all-time among Midshipmen.
The reason the passing game excels: Eli Heidenreich. Navy’s all-time leading receiver is the ultimate explosive threat in this offense, often breaking free downfield for 30+ yard catches. He collects 19.5 yards per reception and has 741 yards on the year, eclipsing the 140-yard mark twice. With 78 more yards, he is the sole owner of the greatest receiving season in Navy history.
Other players that make Drew Cronic’s offense function are fullback Alex Tecza and running back Brandon Chatman. Tecza is the primary ball-carrier outside of Horvath, turning 107 attempts into 669 yards and seven touchdowns, while also excelling as the third-most frequented receiver.
Navy’s offense is one of the better units in the country, ranking first by a mile in rushing, 23rd in total offense, and 13th in third down conversion rate. The defense doesn’t exactly mirror those numbers, and Navy finds itself in shootouts quite often. In fact, the Midshipmen allowed over 30 points in each of their last four wins.
Landon Robinson is the heart and soul of this defense. The athletic defensive tackle commands significant attention, and he ranks atop the team with 7.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks. Linebackers MarcAnthony Parker and Luke Pirris are other notable talents up front, guiding Navy’s run defense to a national ranking of 61st. The passing defense is a bit more rough around the edges, and the Midshipmen yield 264 aerial yards per game — warranting a rank of 126th. Turnovers could certainly help, but they only have five interceptions on the year, which is a drastic drop from last year’s 17.
Memphis Tigers outlook
Memphis (8-3, 4-3 American) controlled its own destiny for the College Football Playoff two games ago, but the Tigers dropped their last two matchups in heartbreaking fashion — falling 38-32 to Tulane and 31-27 to East Carolina — possessing the ball with an opportunity at a go-ahead drive to conclude each game.
That’s been the theme of Memphis throughout the 2020s. The Tigers usually clear their non-conference schedule with ease, but a couple of last-minute losses doom them from reaching the American Conference title game, which they haven’t qualified for since 2019, despite finishing ranked in two-straight seasons.
Memphis owns the longest streak of scoring 20 points in the FBS at 51 games, and the offense continues to thrive off the play of quarterback Brendon Lewis. Lewis has embraced a warrior mentality through the last month, and he has not missed a start while battling an ankle injury. His mobility has been a bit more limited during this stretch, but he’s passing better than ever. Two of his last four starts featured 300-yard outings, and he is attaining these numbers efficiently, completing 74.1 percent of passes across these four games.
A bye week could help Lewis’ mobility, which would create an even more dangerous run game. Memphis already ranks 27th in the FBS in rushing yards, and it’s a team that thrives on explosiveness. Sutton Smith and Greg Desrosiers Jr. have both enjoyed plenty of breakaway runs throughout the year, and Smith is fresh off a 109-yard showing at East Carolina fueled by an 84-yard scamper. Memphis mixes in another back in Frank Peasant, who excels as the short-yardage specialist for third downs, fourth downs, and goal line packages — punching in five touchdowns in his last four games.
Skill position success has been a defining feature for Memphis over the years, and another player sustaining the tradition is Cortez Braham Jr. The wide receiver is fifth in the American with 827 receiving yards, and his seven touchdown receptions are tied for second in the conference. Braham is the master of acrobatic contested catches, and his running mate Jamari Hawkins can inflict some damage as well, serving as a downfield option with 17.8 yards per reception.
Memphis ranks 17th in scoring offense at 36.2 points per game and 46th in scoring defense surrendering 22.0 per game. The defense was more of a strength at the beginning of the year, but the Tigers allowed north of 30 points in four of their last five games — dropping three of them. Passing defense has been the primary weakness during this stretch, as teams are collecting explosive plays and beating Memphis deep. The Tigers allowed exactly 332 passing yards in back-to-back defeats without collecting an interception, and this facet must be shored up — as Navy can explode through the air when it needs to, throwing for 339 on Air Force.
Key names to watch on Memphis’ defense are inside linebacker Sam Brumfield and safeties Chris Bracy and Kamari Wilson. These three are the leading tacklers on the team, with Brumfield closing in on 100 stops — needing 11 more to attain that feat. Brumfield is the American leader with 13 tackles for loss, spearheading the nation’s 40th-ranked run defense. Meanwhile, Bracy and Wilson combine for 15 tackles for loss as effective run stoppers while producing a collective 12 pass breakups on the back end.
Prediction
Navy’s run-oriented style may be different from previous opponents, but Memphis can expect to be involved in the same track meet style game it saw vs. South Florida, Tulane, and East Carolina. Plenty of explosives will be manufactured by both teams in this offensive-oriented contest, and there could be at least four touchdowns of 30 yards or greater — whether it’s Brendon Lewis finding Cortez Braham Jr. on a post downfield, Blake Horvath or Alex Tecza sprinting downfield, or Eli Heidenreich breaking free as the further man on a deep shot.
Heidenreich will be the x-factor against Memphis’ secondary, and Navy will need to rely a bit more on the pass than it usually does in this particular matchup. This should be a back-and-forth thriller, but Horvath guides the Midshipmen to a road victory on Thanksgiving Night, securing a second-straight 9-win campaign and remaining alive for the American Championship.
Prediction: Navy 35, Memphis 31
