After a thorough dismantling of the Red Sox in a Wild Card sweep, the Yankees are riding high. Their offense torched Boston’s pitchers, scoring 18 runs on 26 hits and swatting four homers in the two-game set. Next up is another division rival, the 98-win Tampa Bay Rays.
Tampa’s starting rotation finished second in the AL to the Yankees in ERA, though they did so in 56 fewer innings and with 176 fewer strikeouts. They’re expected to hand the ball to the perennially-underrated Drew Rasmussen in Game
1. The 31-year-old has posted a sub-3.00 ERA in each of his six seasons with Tampa, though a couple of those have been severely shortened by injury. He made 30 starts this year and tossed a career-high 172 innings, going 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA while leading the league in WHIP (0.913) and K:BB ratio (5.44). He finished the season particularly strong, allowing six runs over his last six starts. Of note, he threw a career-high 114 pitches in his last outing of the season, hinting that Kevin Cash, the notoriously short-leashed Rays skipper, may be looking for his ace to shoulder a larger burden than usual.
Like Cam Schlittler, Rasmussen’s top three pitches are all fastballs: a cutter, a four-seamer, and a sinker. All three have been lights-out; opponents hit .205 and slugged .326 against the cutter this season, the best they fared against any of the three. He mixes in a changeup that he threw 354 times without allowing an extra-base hit and, less frequently, a curveball and a sweeper. The only item missing from the two-time All-Star’s portfolio is postseason excellence — he’s made just one playoff start, back in 2021, in which he allowed three runs in two innings before getting the hook.
Cash has remained noncommittal on how he’ll deploy the rest of his pitching staff. Freddy Peralta, Nick Martinez, Griffin Jax, and Ian Seymour were Rasmussen’s rotation-mates and all are expected to feature in some capacity. After a nightmare first half with the Mets, Peralta rebounded nicely with the Rays. The right-hander went 5-0 with a microscopic 0.79 ERA over his last six starts of the year, earning AL Pitcher of the Month honors for September while regaining the form that saw him finish fifth in NL Cy Young voting last year and firmly entrenching himself in the playoff picture.
Martinez was one of the best value signings of the offseason, winning 15 games along with a 3.10 ERA on a one-year, $9 million deal. The 36-year-old faded a bit down the stretch, allowing 20 runs in 42 innings across his last eight starts, and it’s fair to wonder if his career-high 180 innings have caught up with him. The Rays converted Jax from a reliever to a starter midseason and the results were strong. He had a lower ERA in the rotation (3.14) than in the bullpen (8.00) but threw 75 pitches or more in just six of his 23 starts. None of those came in his five September appearances, meaning he’d likely be used more as a bulk arm than a true starter if he does get an October start. Seymour also began the year in the bullpen, though he topped 90 pitches six times after moving to the rotation. He’s the only southpaw of the bunch, a fact which could either make him an attracting starting option or a valuable multi-inning reliever against a Yankees lineup featuring a bevy of lefties. So, too, does the fact that he faced the Bombers in his final start of the season and shoved, holding them to one baserunner in five scoreless innings.
With the addition of a superfluous starter or two, the Rays’ bullpen will be a deep, veteran group. Bryan Baker is the team’s shutdown closer, posting a 1.44 ERA that trailed only Toronto’s Louis Varland among qualified relievers while tying for the MLB lead with 41 saves. His .203 BABIP is an outlier, though, suggesting some confluence of good luck and playing into a defense that graded out as the best in the AL by DRS. The last time Baker blew a save was back on May 13th. He relies primarily on a four-seamer against which opponents hit .125 with no home runs this season and a changeup that sits more than 10 mph lower.
Cash’s top setup option is Kevin Kelly, who appeared in a club-high 71 games. Kelly pitched to a 2.44 ERA on the season but struggled down the stretch, allowing seven runs in his last eight innings of work. Behind those two, the pecking order is less clear. Cam Booser has been the most effective lefty in the ‘pen, recording a sub-2.00 ERA in 41 innings. Fellow southpaws Garrett Cleavinger and Steven Matz had down years after strong 2025s, as did right-hander Cole Sulser. Casey Legumina is another righty option, as is Tyler Wells, who allowed three earned runs in 18 innings after coming over from Baltimore at the trade deadline.
Wells and Cleavinger ended the season on the IL with forearm tightness but each pitched an inning in a scrimmage Tuesday and could be in play. Tampa’s bullpen ERA of 3.99 is more middle-of-the-pack than the performance of its starters, but they still have clear lanes to get through the late innings.
In looking at the Rays’ pitching corps as a whole, Rasmussen looms large as their greatest differentiator. He’s a tough matchup for any team, but if the Yankees can get to him tonight with their third starter on the hill, they’ll do a great deal to puncture the Rays’ confidence and derail their winning formula. After Game 1, the Yankees will likely need to contend with a kitchen sink approach from Cash, who can be expected to make aggressive, matchup-based moves to put his pitchers in positions to succeed.
