Tarik Skubal has won the last two AL Cy Young Awards while also capturing consecutive ERA titles and leading baseball in strikeouts over that span. But when the Royals open a four-game series in Detroit this week, they may be seeing Skubal in a Tigers uniform for the final time. With Detroit well back in the playoff race and the July 31 trade deadline approaching, speculation continues to build that one of baseball’s best pitchers could be on the move.
Kansas City Royals (43-60) vs. Detroit Tigers
(48-54) at Comerica Park, Detroit, MI
Royals: 4.25 runs scored/game (21st in MLB), 5.18 runs allowed/game (28th)
Tigers: 4.25 runs scored/game (20th), 3.97 runs allowed/game (7th)
The Tigers have the ninth-best walk rate (9.3 percent), but the sixth-worst batting average (.235). Dillon Dingler is third among all catchers with 22 home runs. He has been on a tear since the start of June, hitting .325/.363/.624 with 11 home runs in his lats 40 games. Rookie Kevin McGonigle has a 14.4 percent walk rate, ninth-best in baseball. Riley Greene is hitting .310/.385/.524 against righties this year. He is also a .304/.337/.544 hitter in 50 career games against the Royals.
Spencer Torkelson has a 32.3 percent strikeout rate, seventh-highest among qualified hitters, and a 50.7 percent flyball rate. Kerry Carpenter is hitting 4-for-43 (.093) this month. Zach McKinstry is hitting .093/.235/.093 against lefties this year. Gleyber Torres is a career 3-for-26 (.115) hitter against Michael Wacha.
The Tigers have the fewest stolen bases in baseball, and they have the third-worst success rate (69 percent). The Tigers are fifth-worst in Outs Above Average at -19, with Tokelson and Carpenter rating very poorly.
Troy Melton has struck out nine batters in each of his last two starts and has allowed two runs or fewer in eight of his nine starts. He throws a 96 mph fastball and opponents are hitting just .083 against his cutter. Six of the seven home runs he has given up were against lefties.
The Royals have actually fared well against Skubal in his career – he has a 4-9 record and a 4.06 ERA in 18 career games against them. He has allowed just four earned runs with 32 strikeouts in 23 innings over his last four starts. He has a reverse split with lefties hitting .286 against him, while righties are hitting just .194.
Casey Mize left his last start in the fourth inning with groin tightness, and after taking a comebacker off the wrist. He has a 2.50 ERA in seven home starts this year. He has a 4.97 ERA in 13 career starts against the Royals. Salvador Perez is 14-for-33 (.424) with four doubles and a home run in this career matchups.
Framber Valdez gave up six runs while recording just two outs in his last start against the Cubs. He has the fourth-highest groundball rate among starters at 51.9 percent. Opponents are hitting .307 against his sinker this year.
Kenley Jansen hasn’t given up a run in seven outings this month, although he has six walks in 6.1 innings. The active leader in career saves with 487 has four blown saves this year in 15 opportunities. Kyle Finnegan has had a huge drop in strikeout rate while seeing his walk rate spike up and he has the biggest gap between ERA and FIP of any reliever. Tyler Holton has a 2.11 ERA at home.
The Tigers have won four of six from the Royals this year, including a home sweep in Detroit in mid-April. The Tigers have been playing well lately, winning 13 of their last 18, but it is probably not enough to keep them from moving Skubal. With one of the deadline’s most coveted trade chips in Tarik Skubal, the Tigers could end up shaping the market over the next week.
