The San Francisco 49ers continue to see-saw back and forth in the win and loss column. Week 8’s loss to the Houston Texans wasn’t all that shocking, given the quality of the opponent and the road team’s
injuries.
All is not lost for the 5-3 Niners. If you’re going to drop a game, let it be in the AFC. San Francisco is 5-1 in the NFC. That conference record will come in handy, so long as the team continues to win the games they are supposed to.
There was enough bad in this game to humble the 49ers. The ugly was more of a product of injuries, while the good was too little, too late. Let’s pivot from Winners and Losers for now to discuss the 49ers from a different angle.
The good
The 49ers’ red zone defense held the Texans to one touchdown on five attempts. When your defensive line consists of rookies and practice squad players, the offense moving the ball is inevitable. It’s one thing to bend between the 20s. It’s another to fold once the offense is inside the red zone.
A 15-play drive to begin the game ended with a tackle for loss on 3rd & 1. On the second drive, the 49ers were more lucky than good, and that’s OK. C.J. Stroud’s errant second-down pass meant 3rd & 9.
It’s not as if the Niners had a bad call on during the lone touchdown drive allowed in the red area. A player was beaten 1-on-1. It happens.
Another tackle for loss in the fourth quarter limited Houston to another field goal. Going 1-for-5 in the red zone isn’t sustainable, but when the offense is fully healthy, the defense holding teams to 26 should be enough for the offense to win.
Mac Jones played well enough to compete, if not win. The interception came at the end of the game when it felt like the victor had already been decided. Jones was trying to make a play. That shouldn’t bother you. The lack of speed on the field was evident. However, that didn’t prevent Jones from giving his wide receivers opportunities to make plays.
The Texans have an elite secondary. Kyle Shanahan has been able to scheme players open for a month. That was not the case against DeMeco Ryans’ squad. There were a handful of throws where Jones put the ball where only his receiver could make a play. He was under pressure on 44 percent of his drops. All things considered, there wasn’t much more Jones could bring to the table on Sunday, especially against a defense that’s second in schedule-adjusted efficiency at limiting passes to tight ends and running backs — the two areas where the 49ers generally have their biggest advantages.
The 49ers’ special teams might have had their best collective showing of the season. Now that is a surprise when you remember that Eddy Pineiro didn’t attempt a field goal. Andrew Pasquini did a good job of highlighting Thomas Morstead, who had three punts inside the 20, including a long of 54.
Brian Robinson’s 46-yarder before halftime jump-started the offense. Robinson was so effective that Houston started to kick away from him. When you’re struggling to generate explosive plays, those types of returns are invaluable. Skyy Moore had a 29-yard return as well. Again, we’re not saying the expectation will be one long return per game, but you can’t pin this loss on the special teams units, which has not been the case in most instances this season.
The bad
Coming into Sunday, the 49ers’ run defense was eighth in EPA allowed and in the upper half of the league in schedule-adjusted efficiency. Houston stayed ahead of the chains all day because it ran the ball at will.
Houston almost hit Shanahan’s magic rushing number of 40 carries. It was death by a thousand cuts, which is the worst way to lose. Woody Marks had a long of 23. There were no other explosive carries for the Texans. The six first downs Houston rushed for all came at the worst possible times. C.J. Stroud’s likely stung the most. San Francisco had a free rusher, but they couldn’t make the tackle. That led to Stroud getting to the edge and picking up 13 yards on 2nd & 8 ahead of the two-minute warning.
The 49ers don’t stand much of a chance if they’re getting gashed on the ground defensively.
The 49ers have no shot if they’re going to give up 3+ 30-yard pass plays a game, as they did against the Texans. One of the defense’s calling cards this season has been its ability to limit explosive plays. A 50, 44, and 30-yarder surrendered are guaranteed points for the opposition in today’s NFL. The issue for the 49ers is that these weren’t competitive. There were a couple of 17-yard receptions mixed in there, too.
The safeties and nickel for Saleh have struggled all season. That did not change in Week 8. Fans were calling for Chase Lucas midway through the second quarter. He gave up a first down on the second play he was in. Upton Stout looks like he needs more seasoning. Ji’Ayir Brown has been good, relatively speaking, but his lack of speed was on full display. Malik Mustapha is still in preseason mode, so it’s understandable why he’s had issues throughout the two games.
It didn’t feel like the passing plays allowed were due to Stroud having all day to throw. The deep passes were called shots, and the secondary simply wasn’t in position. This defense stops the run and prevents the big play. They didn’t do either on Sunday against an offense without its top two wideouts.
The 49ers came into Week 8 eighth in the NFL in drops, and they didn’t help themselves on Sunday with another three. The 49ers weren’t expected to score much against the Texans. When your margin for error is slim, you can’t afford mistakes. Jordan Watkins saw his first career target go through his hands. Kendrick Bourne had a drop. Jauan Jennings dropped a long pass that hit him in the hands.
A month from now, these passes are going to Ricky Pearsall and Brandon Aiyuk. Until then, the professional receivers are going to need to catch the throws that hit them in the hands.
The ugly
It feels like we’re beating a dead horse, but this game was a sign of what life will look like without Fred Warner. C.J. Stroud completed 14 of 15 passes for a season-high 196 yards and two touchdowns on in-breaking routes with an 86.7 percent success rate — the second-highest rate in a game in his career when targeting multiple in-breaking routes.
Dee Winters’ coverage has dipped without Warner. He allowed all seven of his targets to be completed for 59 yards, three first downs, and a touchdown. Upton Stout didn’t fare much better. Stout was targeted eight times, giving up seven receptions for three first downs, including 25 yards after the catch.
Renardo Green was the lone Niner who did not give up multiple first downs with more than one target.
This section will seem like low-hanging fruit, but the Texans’ offense allowed a season-low 21.4 pressure rate. For the first time this season, Stroud wasn’t sacked in a game. And it wasn’t for lack of trying on Robert Saleh’s end. The 49ers blitzed on a season-high 33.3 percent of Stroud’s dropbacks.
Dee Winters, Malik Mustapha, Tatum Bethune, Ji’Ayir Brown, Curtis Robinson, and Upton Stout all blitzed. When they did come after Strout, they only managed to generate pressure on half of those dropbacks. When the Niners didn’t blitz, Stroud was only pressured on two of his 28 dropbacks.
Nicholas McGee spoke about the lack of pass rush and the 49ers’ decision to make. The only decision should be how many pass rushers the Niners acquire. You cannot compete against playoff teams with Trevis Gipson, a player who was playing in a different league last year, playing 50 percent of the time.
A Kyle Shanahan offense not getting a first down until late in the second quarter is unacceptable. By the time the Niners picked up their initial first down, Houston had 14. By the time the 49ers crossed midfield for the first time, the Texans had a 16-point lead. Yes, it’s a stout defense. But Shanahan’s offense didn’t get off the mat until the deficit was too big to overcome.
You can’t go three-and-out three times in a row and expect your defense to perform. Those quick drives came after the Texans had drives of 16, 10, and 11 plays. The 49ers’ defense was in for a tall task to begin with, but they were on the field for the majority of the first half because the offense couldn’t muster a single first down until 39 seconds were remaining in the first half.
It’s not all doom and gloom. The 49ers have put up plenty of stinkers in October under Shanahan. They were shorthanded on the road against arguably the best defense in the NFL.
The following month will feature all NFC opponents, with two division games sandwiched in between. If San Francisco can manage to go 3-1 during that stretch, they’ll be sitting pretty one week before their bye week.
