With the 2025 Texas Rangers season having come to an end, we shall be, over the course of the offseason, taking a look at every player who appeared in a major league game for the Texas Rangers in 2025.
Today we are looking at pitcher Jack Leiter.
Jack Leiter was better in 2025 than he was in 2024.
Granted, that’s not a terribly high bar to clear. Leiter had an 8.83 ERA and 6.11 xERA in his nine appearances in 2024. That is a bar that is so low to the ground, you don’t exactly have to jump to clear it.
You basically have to simply not shuffle your feet.
Still, I don’t mean to damn with faint praise. Leiter made significant strides in 2025. He made 29 starts in the majors and threw 151 innings. He cut his ERA by more than 50%, from 8.83 to 3.86. His FIP dropped from 5.66 to 4.15, his xERA fell from 6.11 to 4.45. Leiter’s K rate went up and his walk and home run rate went down.
Leiter’s ERA was around league average — B-R had him at 5% below league average with an ERA+ of 95, and Fangraphs had him at 5% above league average with an ERA- of 95 — and we will take that from a rookie in his first full season in a major league rotation.
Leiter also got better as the season went along, which is encouraging. After putting up a 4.37 ERA in 80 innings over 16 starts in the first half, with a 7.7 K/9 and 4.26 BB/9, he improved to a 3.28 ERA in the second half over 71 innings covering 13 starts, with a 10.0 K/9 and 3.67 BB/9.
In the second half, he generally avoided the disaster outings that have plagued him in the past. He made it at least five innings in 10 of his 13 second half starts, allowed more than four runs just once, and held opponents to one or two runs in 9 of those 13 starts. To the untrained eye watching from home, he appeared grow calmer on the mound as the season went on, less likely to get visibly frustrated.
Jack Leiter even appeared on a handful of Rookie of the Year ballots, finishing 7th, with Noah Cameron of the Royals being the only pitcher to finish ahead of him.
It was a successful season from a developmental standpoint, I think. Leiter was a league average…I wouldn’t call him an innings-eater, necessarily, but he was an acceptable back of the rotation starter. B-R has him with a 0.4 bWAR on the year, Fangraphs has him at 2.3 fWAR, and I think somewhere around the middle of that is probably about right.
The question with Leiter is, where does he go from here?
There are still significant weaknesses in Leiter’s game. He doesn’t miss enough bats, particularly for someone with his stuff. He walks too many batters. His fastball was much better in 2025, as opponents went from a .443 wOBA/.423 xwOBA against it in 2024 to .281/.330 in 2025, but his newly added sinker got lit up. He added a spike change in 2025, but was wildly inconsistent with it — sometimes it looked like a devastating out pitch, sometimes it was spiking three feet in front of the plate or missing glove side by two feet.
Jack Leiter turns 26 years old in April. His path to the majors was slower than I think everyone — including Leiter himself — expected when he was taken second overall in 2021. He’s now made it, though, and has a firm hold on a rotation spot. If he can tighten his command, improve the consistency on his changeup, he could make another big stride forward, potentially establish himself as a solid #2/3 starter. If he doesn’t, if he treads water or shows minor improvements, he’s a back of the rotatoin guy.
Its possible expectations were too high for Leiter coming out of college, being the #2 pick of the draft and banking the largest signing bonus in the class. That said, the top of the first round in 2021 has ended up being pretty rough.
Henry Davis, selected first overall, has been bad. Jackson Jobe, selected third, missed time due to physical issues, made his major league debut in 2025, was okay for the Tigers, and then underwent Tommy John surgery, which will cost him most of 2026. Marcelo Mayer, the #4 pick, hasn’t stayed healthy and hasn’t been that impressive when he’s been on the field. #5 pick Colton Cowser hit well in 2024, didn’t hit much in 2025, and is looking like a platoon guy. Jordan Lawlar, at #6, has missed a ton of time due to injuries and is moving to the outfield. The rest of the top 10 consists of Frank Mozzicato and Benny Montgomery, who haven’t made it past AA and are fringe prospects at best now, Sam Bachman, who is now a reliever on the AAA/majors shuttle for Anaheim, and Kumar Rocker, who, well, we know what’s going on there.
So Jack Leiter, at this point, still looks like one of the best picks in the top 10 of the 2021 first round. If he can build on his 2025 season and take another step forward, he could establish himself as one of the best picks in 2021, period.
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