Carolina has nine games left in the regular season. 70% of the regular season is in the bag. In a perfect world, the post season will add nine more games (and nine more wins). TBD. Here’s where the three main metrics currently rank UNC and its remaining opponents:
Meanwhile, the AP poll thinks the Heels are 14th. The Coaches poll has them at 18th. Various voices weigh in on basketball teams to date, and suffice to say they differ. They’re all looking at different things and then weighing them differently
— just like Carolina fans.
Within the bounds of their own criteria, they’re all correct. Kenpom, T-rank, and NET’s metrics all reflect the team’s entire body of work, and they’re unflinching in that regard. They’re accurate in that reflection. They see the team that built a 32-point lead on Syracuse and also one that looked new to the game, allowing that lead dwindle to 6 in a matter of moments. Which one is the “real Carolina”? So far: both.
But metrics have blind spots. They’re a highly valuable complement to the eye test, but they shouldn’t supplant it. The metrics say that what I‘ll call “elite UNC“ and “immature UNC” average out to 27. Or 28. Or 30. All in the same neighborhood. Fair.
The UNC that ran away in the second half against Kansas and got up 32 against Syracuse is an elite team, full stop. They can beat anyone in the country (although Arizona might require an abnormally hot shooting night). The UNC in the last 10 minutes of that Syracuse game could lose to anyone. It’s almost mind-boggling to see a team execute at both an elite level and borderline incompetence for such an extended portion of the game.
That’s the intriguing thing about the metrics. They’re averaging the results so far, impartially and comprehensively. The Syracuse game ended up a wash in the numbers, and that’s a microcosm of the season to date with the efficiency gauges. As fans, however, we see a team that for extended stretches looks unbeatable, paired with one that here and there looks like a first round exit.
So, here’s premise #1: a team that consistently generates 27 to 30-ish results, possession by possession, game after game, is very different than an inconsistent one that frequently demonstrates the ability to play at a top-10 level. The metrics can’t measure that (and shouldn’t). But as fans, we see a team with top 10 potential, one facing the challenge of banking more minutes under “elite UNC” and fewer minutes under “lost-their-focus UNC.”
Premise #2: the schedule gets tougher these last nine games. That could (emphasis on the conditional) help this team level up in the focus (and hence consistency) department.
Premise #3: the issues holding this team back are—for the most part—within their control. It’s possible (emphasis on the conditional) that the Syracuse game extended them that life lesson on a silver platter and then smacked them upside the head with it.
Premise #4: starting two true freshmen guarantees growing pains. By the end of the season, they’re often no longer playing like true freshmen.
Caveat #1: in football, teams typically are what they are by this point in the season. Basketball’s a bit different, though, as teams can and do get hot. Lightbulbs flip on.
Caveat #2: via the metrics, the Heels will be underdogs in four of the remaining nine games, with two others being coin flips. Duke (twice) and State will be favored. For premises 1-4, it’s now or never. Going into the post-season needing redemption for a disappointing regular season is the last thing this program needs at the moment.
Go Heels.
