The Detroit Lions look to pass a very early litmus test on Thursday night with a trip to Orchard Park for a date with the Buffalo Bills. While both teams are coming off Week 1 wins, the vibes are a little better in Buffalo after taking down the Houston Texans on the road. The Lions, meanwhile, nearly blew a 21-point lead to the New Orleans Saints.
But that’s just one datapoint. Which team has the statistical advantage for “Thursday Night Football”? Let’s take a look in my Lions vs. Bills preview and
prediction.
Note: DVOA rankings in each subsection represent 2025, since there is more data to go off of. In Week 4, we will move away from 2025 data completely.
Lions pass offense (6th in DVOA in 2025) vs. Bills pass defense (12th)
2026 DVOA rankings:
- Lions pass offense: 17th
- Bills pass defense: 23rd
Week 1 results: 204 net passing yards, 96.7 passer rating
Last year, the Lions sported one of the most efficient passing attacks in football—for the third straight season. There should be little doubt that Jared Goff has full command of this offense, and has a comfort level in the scheme that few in the NFL do. Last week against the Saints was a lower-than-average day for Goff and company, but there was nothing particularly out of the ordinary from his performance.
In Week 1, the Lions ranked:
- 14th in passer rating (96.7)
- 25th in yards per attempt (5.2)
- 19th in dropback EPA (0.012)
- 21st in success rate (41.5%)
Certainly not their best effort, but there were some good signs. For one, Goff was pressured on just 31.7% of dropbacks, the 12th-best mark of Week 1 and well below his 34.7% average last year. Secondly, drops were a serious problem in Week 1, and as long as the Lions can clean that up, I think they’ll be okay.
In short, I’ll be monitoring the Lions’ passing offense efficiency after an inconsistent Week 1, but I’m not too concerned about it right now.
Although, we’ll see how it works out with Larry Borom set to start at right tackle after Blake Miller was ruled out. It could be a matchup to exploit.
Week 1 results: 257 net passing yards allowed, 106.7 passer rating
The Bills’ pass defense was outstanding last year, ranking:
- 7th in passer rating allowed (79.8)
- 8th in dropback EPA
- 6th in dropback success rate
It’s hard to judge how things will play out in 2025, because they played a talented Texans passing offense that can be very explosive. But it wasn’t exactly a promising start for Buffalo. They ranked:
- 24th in passer rating allowed (106.7)
- 15th in yards per attempt (7.2)
- 17th in dropback EPA (0.098
- 24th in success rate (51.2%)
What was particularly surprising was their lack of pass rush against the Texans. While they tallied three sacks, two came in the final minute of the game. They produced a league-low 21.4% pressure rate despite blitzing right around the league average (26.2%).
Something else to watch: the Bills secondary was called for five penalties last week. They’re handsy, and Detroit could try to take advantage, despite rarely drawing defensive holds or pass interference calls.
Player to watch: Greg Rousseau. While the Bills’ pass rush isn’t too threatening, Rousseau is a bit of a terror. He produced seven pressures, two sacks, and five quarterback hits—all while mostly lining up over the right tackle. Could be a huge factor against Borom.
Advantage: Lions +0.5. The Miller injury has me a little worried here, but Borom is at least an experienced body out there and he finished 2025 strong. If Detroit can keep Goff clean, they should be fine.
Lions run offense (10th) vs. Bills run defense (31st)
2026 DVOA rankings:
- Lions run offense: 4th
- Bills run defense: 17th
Week 1 results vs. Saints: 33 rushes, 165 yards, 5.0 YPC
The Lions rushing attack looked a lot more efficient in Week 1 under Drew Petzing. The investments along the offensive line and change in coordinator seems to have paid off after an extremely efficient day against a Saints run defense that was a top-10 unit last year. For Week 1, the Lions rank:
- 8th in yards per carry (5.0)
- 14th in EPA (-0.072)
- 3rd in success rate (50.0%)
The offensive line ranked eighth in PFF run blocking grade (69.7) and fifth in FTN Fantasy’s adjusted line yard.
I don’t want to fully declare that Detroit’s run game is fied, but it was an extremely promising start to the season.
Week 1 results vs. Texans: 32 rushes, 124 yards allowed, 3.9 YPC
The Bills’ run defense was downright terrible last year, ranking in the bottom 10 in nearly every statistical category. However, like the Lions, they produced some promising results in Week 1. Against the Texans, the Bills ranked:
- 11th in yards per carry allowed (3.9)
- 24th in EPA (0.030)
- 18th in rushing success rate (41.9%)
- 6th in stuffed percentage (run stopped for 0 or negative yardage — 24%)
But it’s hard to know how much praise to give the Bills for what was essentially an average performance. That’s because the Houston Texans had a bottom-five rushing attack last year. Are the Bills actually improved, or did they just have a very favorable matchup in Week 1?
Player to watch: LB Terrel Bernard. The Bills’ fifth-year linebacker started off the season with a bang, producing a 84.7 run blocking grade and tallying six stops in his 11 tackles against the Texans.
Advantage: Lions +1. I’m cautiously optimistic about the Lions’ run game after a strong opening performance, but I feel like I have no real grasp on the Bills defense. I would not be surprised if they produced some negative plays, and Detroit will need to be better in digging themselves out of down/distance holes than they were in Week 1. But with as many holes as Detroit produced against the Saints, it’s only a matter of time before Jahmyr Gibbs breaks a big one.
Bills pass offense (10th) vs. Lions pass defense (6th)
2026 DVOA rankings:
- Bills pass offense: 1st
- Lions pass defense: 13th
Week 1 results vs. Texans: 323 net passing yards, 130.5 passer rating
One of the best passing attacks in football returns in 2026, but with a brand-new weapon aboard. After years of public complaining about not having a No. 1 receiver on the team, the Bills acquired DJ Moore via a trade. He rewarded the move by putting up 100 yards and a score in his Bills debut on five catches. Combined with Khalil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid, it’s a pretty solid grouping of skill players. They also have 2024 second-round pick Keon Coleman, but he has yet to break out and just had a 1-yard catch in the opener.
It’s also worth noting that the Bills did a pretty good job protecting Josh Allen against a feared Texans defensive line last week. Allen faced just a 28.1% pressure rate in Week 1, which was eighth lowest in the league. Considering he took the sixth-longest time to throw, as well, and that shows you just how long protection was holding up. Buffalo, unsurprisingly, ranked first in ESPN’s pass block win rate, but 14th in PFF pass blocking grade.
Oh, and there’s Josh Allen. He’s got a fantastic arm, elite elusiveness, and a gunslinger mentality. While that mentality can sometimes get him in trouble, it also means he’s not afraid to air it out. Last week, he had the highest deep ball percentage and highest average depth of target. He completed seven-of-11 passes that traveled at least 15 yards downfield. Yikes.
Week 1 results vs. Saints: 378 net passing yards allowed, 87.7 passer rating
How the hell do you judge the Lions’ pass defense right now. Last year, it was an average unit, despite the high DVOA ranking. They were 14th in dropback EPA allowed and ninth in dropback success rate.
In Week 1, those numbers were very similar: 16th in dropback EPA, but 20th in success rate. But they were 4th and 7th in the first half; 22nd and 25th after halftime.
The good news is the pressure stats are all up from last year. Per NFL Pro, pressure rate is up from 36.9% (seventh) to 40.6% (ninth). Time to pressure is also improved from 2.86 (30th) to 2.40 (fourth).
The bad news is Detroit is still giving up a ton of big plays. They allowed six passing plays of 20+ yards in Week 1, second-most of any team.
Player to watch: Dalton Kincaid. In Week 1, Kincaid caught five passes for 130 yards. The Lions allowed Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant combine for seven catches, 87 yards and two touchdowns last week. Detroit’s linebackers and/or nickel cornerbacks are going to get tested again.
Advantage: Bills +2.5. I want to believe in Detroit’s first-half performance against the Saints, but I’m finding it hard to believe considering how familiar some of the second-half issues were: mainly, having no good answer for third-and-long situations. Josh Allen is the exact player who can extend plays, put pressure on Detroit’s iffy secondary, and his fearless attitude will undoubtedly result in several explosive plays for the Bills.
Bills run offense (2nd) vs. Lions run defense (19th)
2026 DVOA rankings:
- Bills run offense: 26th
- Lions run defense: 18th
Week 1 results: 21 rushes, 86 yards, 4.1 YPC
It was a bit surprising to see the Bills rushing attack struggle in Week 1 after being one of the most explosive units in football last year. Granted, that is a good Texans defense, but still, Buffalo finished Week 1 ranked:
- 15th in yards per carry (4.1)
- 28th in rush EPA
- 25th in rushing success rate
Their Week 1 rushing total (86 yards) was lower than any performance last year, as they abandoned the run with just 21 attempts.
There are some signs that explosive rushing attack from last year is still there. For one, they were only s”stuffed” on 7 percent of Week 1 runs, which was fifth-best. However, the offensive line ranked 22nd in run block win rate, and 28th in PFF run blocking grade.
Last year, the Texans had the second best run defense by DVOA and EPA and were sixth in success rate. So I’m not ready to call the Bills’ rushing attack severely hampered, but it certainly is on notice.
Week 1 results: 25 rushes, 91 yards allowed, 3.6 YPC
After an up-and-down season last year defending the run, the Lions defense started the year with a positive data point against the Saints. Detroit’s Week 1 performance ranked:
- 7th in YPC allowed (3.6)
- 18th in EPA
- 7th in success rate
The high EPA number is likely the result of two rushes: an 8-yard touchdown run by Kendre Miller, and an 18-yard draw play at the end of regulation that nearly set the Saints up to win.
There’s still some reason for skepticism about Detroit’s run defense improvement. Remember that the Saints had one of the worst rushing attacks in football last year, so holding them to those numbers may be commonplace.
Player to watch: James Cook. Cook was last year’s rushing leader, and while he managed just 57 yards last week, he still averaged 4.4 YPC. In addition to being the rushing leader, he also ranked 10th in success rate among RBs (44.7%) and second in rushing yards over expected per rush (+1.1). He creates yardage, even when it’s not there.
Advantage: Draw. There’s just not enough information here. I have no faith in Week 1 data for either team. The Bills played one of 2025’s best run defenses in the NFL last week, while Detroit played one of the worst rushing attacks from 2025. I think both units will be just fine this year, but that’s more rooted in history and faith than any facts.
Last week’s prediction
On Paper tallied it’s first win of the season both heads up and against the spread, but I got a lot wrong with my 23-20 Lions prediction. My biggest swing and miss was predicting that Detroit would struggle to run against a Saints rush defense that was a top-10 unit last year. That certainly boosts my confidence in Detroit’s rushing attack. I was also wrong in doubting the Saints’ passing attack. I noted Detroit’s issues with allowing big plays, but New Orleans was a bottom-10 team in explosive passing plays last year, so I thought they’d be okay. They were not, and now Detroit’s secondary is on higher notice.
In the comment section, there weren’t a ton of people very close to the final score, but the best effort came from Quinny the pooh and their 30-27 prediction.
As is On Paper tradition, the commenter with the closest score prediction gets a hastily-created photoshop. This week, I’m going fully off the username. Congrats, Quinny the pooh.
This week’s prediction:
The Bills come out with a +1 advantage, which isn’t too much. But it’s also probably more representative of my hesitancy this early in the season with little relevant data.
By far, the biggest mismatch is Josh Allen vs. the Lions, which is likely the biggest mismatch in most Bills games. However, the Lions feel particularly vulnerable to his aggressive mentality. Because of that, the least likely outcome to me is a Lions blowout win. Allen will keep them in it, because he will continue to test the back end of Detroit’s defense, and that has been the key to success for opposing QBs for years now.
Detroit does have a path to winning, and it involves playing nearly flawless football on offense with a healthy dose of Jahmyr Gibbs. Running the clock, keeping the possessions and scores low, and finishing drives could put in Allen in a position to be similarly flawless, and he tends to put the ball in danger at least once per game. But given Detroit’s inconsistent effort on offense last week, it’s hard to imagine them cleaning everything up on a short week.
So give me the Bills in a somewhat comfortable game for them. Bills 34, Lions 24.
