For the first time since the first week of September, the Virginia Cavaliers will look to pick themselves up off the mat after a loss as they travel down to Durham to face a 5-4 Duke team that, somehow,
is firmly in the mix at the top of the ACC with a 4-1 conference record.
The biggest storyline for the ‘Hoos, of course, surrounds starting quarterback Chandler Morris. Morris left the game early against Wake after a rough late hit, and as of this week’s ACC availability report, is questionable to play. ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported Friday morning that Morris is progressing towards being cleared, but we won’t know for sure until UVA’s opening drive Saturday.
Whether or not he’s able to go, obviously, alters how effective the offense can be, with backup Daniel Kaelin having minimal playing experience as a redshirt freshman. Regardless, the ‘Hoos still have everything to play for, as a trip to the ACC title game remains alive and hinges on the Cavaliers finishing the season with two straight wins at bare minimum.
The Blue Devils have been up in down overall, despite a solid showings in conference play. Manny Diaz’s group has struggled in its past three games, going 1-2 and most recently losing on the road to a much-improved UConn team, but the Blue Devils continue to put up points. Their 35 points per game average sits fourth best in the ACC and 19th nationally.
Kickoff from Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham is slated for 3:30 eastern, with ESPN2 set to broadcast. Now, a look at all you need to know heading into the matchup:
Three Players
QB Darian Mensah
Defensive coordinator John Rudzinski and the Cavalier defense face their biggest challenge yet at the QB position with Mensah. One of the crown jewels of the transfer portal this offseason, the former Tulane signal caller has lived up to the hype so far. The true sophomore has thrown for an ACC-best 24 passing touchdowns, and ranks second in both passing yards (2,794) and completions (224).
Up until last week’s loss, Mensah had been spectacular at keeping the ball out of harm’s way for the majority of the year. Going into that game, the sophomore had thrown for 13 straight touchdowns since his last interception back in September. The Huskies picked him off twice in the win, in addition to forcing Mensah to fumble on the final drive of the game. Despite now owning four interceptions on the year, Mensah’s still thrown for multiple touchdowns in every game, tossing three or more five times in Duke’s nine games.
S Caleb Weaver
Weaver’s been a huge transfer-win for Duke, leading his team with 62 tackles after transferring over as a graduate student from Sam Houston. A former walk-on, Weaver was recently nominated for the Burlsworth Trophy, an award that recognizes the best player in college football that began his career as a walk-on.
With preseason All-American Terry Moore still out from a late season knee injury a year ago, Weaver’s leadership and experience has been critical on the backend. He got home for a sack against UConn last week and owns one interception on the year, serving as one of a handful of playmakers in Duke’s secondary.
WR Cooper Barkate
Transferring in from Harvard, Barkate leads the Blue Devils in receiving and sits atop the ACC in total receiving yards through 11 weeks with 824. The senior has been spectacular since making the jump up to the ACC.
He’s been a big play machine with five touchdown catches and has gone for 117 yards or more three times this season, including a six catch, 172-yard game against Georgia Tech, followed by 127 yards in a road win over Clemson. UConn found a way to limit Barkate to just 50 yards on five touches a week ago, but the big play potential is always there whenever Mensah feeds him the ball.
Two Matchups
UVA’s secondary versus Duke’s play action passing game
Despite the loss, UVA’s secondary took a giant step forward against Wake Forest. The ‘Hoos tallied seven pass breakups from five different players and allowed only nine receptions in total. On the ground, Donavan Platt, Ja’Son Prevard, and Devin Neal all made plays on the perimeter in one-on-one situations, which proved critical in giving the offense repeated chances to claw back.
Saturday will require another balanced defensive effort against a creative, run-pass option-laden Blue Devil offense. Duke loves to spread multiple receivers out wide to the boundaries, to clear things up for Mensah to make easier decisions with the ball.
Diagnosing the play is where things could get dicey for the ’Hoos. There have been times where opposing defenses have looked completely lost against Duke’s RPO offense, with plays where the vast majority of defenders sell out against the run, only for the ball to be thrown behind them. With UVA’s offense now playing like less of a sure thing, the defense can’t afford to spot the Blue Devils with any easy scores like it was allowed to in games against NC State and Florida State.
Duke has been average, but good enough to be dangerous on the ground, averaging 140 yards per game, which plays into their effectiveness of fooling defenses. But make no mistake about it, the passing game is where this offense makes its money. The ‘Hoos will need rock-solid one-on-one cover games from Emmanuel Karnley, Donovan Platt, and Jordan Robinson once again to stifle any potential shot plays downfield.
Jahmal Edrine and Trell Harris against the Blue Devil pass defense
Whether it was against the Wolfpack, Seminoles, or Stanford, the Cavalier offense has been better when Edrine and Harris are both cooking on the perimeter. Harris has been UVA’s go-to option through the air the last three games, hauling in 15 passes in that span, while Edrine’s production has dipped in the previous two, catching just three passes for 21 yards.
Saturday presents an opportunity to spread the ball around, regardless of who’s playing quarterback, against a Duke defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league and has been gashed for an average of 356 passing yards in its last three games.
All signs point to J’Mari Taylor and Harrison Waylee being able to move the ball on the ground consistently in this game, given the average performances by Duke’s defense against the run, so establishing Harris and Edrine early on could be just what the doctor ordered to get this offense scoring touchdowns, not field goals.
One Prediction
As rough as the loss to NC State was to start the season, that game seemed to spark the ’Hoos to lock in and rip off seven straight wins. After an ugly loss like last week’s at home, I’d be surprised if we don’t see the same inspired response from the ‘Hoos. As great as Duke’s offense is, UVA has the talent to match and owns the much better defense of the two.
Between possibly easing in an inexperienced backup quarterback in Kaelin or a recently cleared to play Morris, Des Kitchings needs to find ways to take the pressure off whoever’s under center by creating easy opportunities to get the rock to his playmakers on the outside. From Jet sweeps to quick screens with blockers out in front, anything to get guys like Edrine, Harris, Cam Ross, or Kam Courtney all involved as early as possible should go a long way in opening up the offense. I think we’ll see that, given how non-explosive the offense was against Wake.
Things seem to be trending towards UVA having Morris back, but you can only trust what a coaching staff puts out to the world before a game but so much. Whether it’s Morris or Kaelin with a full week of starter reps and preparation, I think UVA finds a way to get the job done against a shaky defense and puts up points in the passing game. Tony Elliott picks up another culture-defining road win, keeping UVA’s ACC title dreams alive going into the second bye.
Prediction: UVA 28, Duke 23
