Robert Williams III joined the Portland Trail Blazers in the second half of the Damian Lillard trade and hours before 2023-24 training camp. Given the team’s youth movement, the accepted view at the time was that the veteran big would be moved for more assets within one or two transaction windows.
Though injury-prone and undersized, Williams had established himself as one of the league’s premier centers with the Boston Celtics thanks to other-worldly athleticism and natural defensive instincts. When
healthy, the 6’9 Louisianan was destined to be a key piece in a championship run.
In 209 games and five seasons with the Celtics, Williams averaged 7.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1.7 boards in 20.5 minutes. In 2021-22, he enjoyed his best campaign to date, making the All-Defensive Second Team and finishing seventh in Defensive Player of the Year voting behind teammate and winner Marcus Smart.
He also played a key role for the Celtics during those NBA Playoffs, helping Boston all the way to the NBA Finals before losing to the Golden State Warriors.
So when he was included, alongside Malcolm Brogdon and two first-round picks to Portland, General Manager Joe Cronin was widely lauded for the return, which would no doubt deliver further assets. At the time, Williams was primed to be moved again as the Blazers dove deeper into a rebuild after already yielding center Deandre Ayton in the first part of the Lillard trade.
Unfortunately, Williams’ body broke down before the 2024 NBA Trade Deadline. If it was Cronin’s wish to move Williams during every ensuing transaction window, his ongoing injury concerns made it objectively harder.
But as we approach the end of his contract this summer, Williams is relatively healthy, which begs the question about where he spends the next part of his career.
His Contribution
After contributing in only 26 games through his initial two Portland campaigns, Williams has finally gotten on the court this season, playing 39 of a possible 57 games. He would have played more but the Blazers have learned their lesson and taken the precautionary approach of not playing him in both ends of back-to-backs.
While his averages of 6.3 points, 6.3 boards, 1.1 assists and 1.4 blocks in 16.2 minutes don’t look particularly impressive, Williams is more than just a collection of numbers in a box score. When healthy, the 6’9 center boasts the athleticism and instincts to corral smaller, faster players while also capably hindering taller and more imposing opponents.
He’s an example of how using angles, timing and old-fashioned grit can be just as imposing as someone standing seven-foot with a ridiculous wingspan.
His main source of offense comes around the rim, in lob and putback opportunities as well as being a decent passer in traffic. He’s also added an in-case-of-emergency three-point shot this season, hitting 43.8 percent on 16 attempts, though I would never want to rely on it regularly.
Among bigs, he ranks fourth in points per shot attempts at 1.55, sixth in effective field goal percentage at 77.6 percent, second in two-point percentage at 79.1 percent and third in points at the rim at 83.2 percent. On defense he’s fifth in block rate, swatting 4.3 percent of opponent attempts and ninth in defensive rebound rate, catching 24.4 percent of opponent missed shots.
Last week, we discussed the status of the Blazers’ most recent first-round pick, fellow big man Yang Hansen. As mentioned, the Chinese big is nowhere near ready to figure in a regular NBA rotation and probably won’t be up to speed next year either.
The rookie’s slow start will consequently figure in how the franchise approaches Williams’ unrestricted free agency. If Williams walks, Cronin could always snag a new backup center in trade or free agency. Said center might be a little more durable but they probably won’t be as savvy or reliable as Williams when on the court.
Free Agency
Williams’ health issues won’t result in a particularly lucrative payday this summer. But thanks to his resurgence this season, his prospects aren’t as overwhelmingly gloomy as they might have been 12 months ago.
If a team wants the 28-year-old enough, they might be willing to shell out a good portion of the $15.1 million non-taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, but not all of it. Unfortunately for Portland, this makes the Bird Rights they hold not particularly consequential.
No one knows Williams’ own motivations but you’d have to think the only reason he returns to Portland is if he thinks the franchise has at least a remote chance of figuring in the NBA Playoffs in 2027. As we saw last night, the Blazers are yet to be a real Western Conference player, but with Damian Lillard returning and potential moves made this summer, improvement is still in the cards.
If Williams felt comfortable about the Blazers’ prospects and was fine living in the Pacific Northwest, then the Blazers could probably have him back for about $8-$9 million an annum, if they chose to.
Conclusion
Robert Williams III has gotten his body to a level it hasn’t been since arriving in Portland two and a half seasons ago. As he approaches unrestricted free agency, both he and the Blazers have decisions to make about whether they continue on together.
There are gambles on both sides. Obviously for the Blazers, it’s Williams’ health or lack thereof. If he can stay on the court, you’re not going to get a better backup big, especially with Yang Hansen not ready to take on more responsibility.
For Williams, it could be whether this team is on the right track and close enough to playing NBA Playoff basketball so his skills can be used in games that really matter in April, May and beyond.
My gut tells me Williams finds a new home with a team a little closer to contention this summer but I wouldn’t rule out him returning to the Blazers if both sides are willing to take a chance on one another.
