With the Syracuse Orange set to face the SMU Mustangs for the first time as ACC counterparts, we asked Steve Helwick covers a wide range of college football for Underdog Dynasty and Hustle Belt on SB Nation to tell us more about SMU. Here’s what he had to say:
TNIAAM: SMU surprised a lot of people by making the ACC Championship Game and College Football Playoff. What’s the mood around this year’s team as they head into this game at 2-2? Does the Rhett Lashlee to Arkansas chatter come at a bad time?
Steve Helwick: SMU saw this same exact movie before sitting 2-2 in non-conference play in 2023 before rattling off nine consecutive wins for a conference championship. And last year, the Mustangs were 1-1 after an early loss to BYU and then won 10-straight until the ACC Championship. Rhett Lashlee and the coaching staff know how to rebound from early adversity and get the team in proper shape heading into league play, and there’s enough veteran leadership on the team that experienced those turnarounds.
A 3-loss ACC champion qualified for the College Football Playoff last year, so despite falling out of the rankings, SMU’s goals remain on the table should it take care of business against the ACC. This team has no shortage of talent. Kevin Jennings and the wide receiving corps can compete against any defense in the country and the new-look defensive front is stout. However, there have been concerns with a banged up roster, a porous passing defense which ranks last in the FBS, the inability to close tight fourth quarter matchups, and a kicking game which is 2-of-7 on the year. Lastly, while I understand the Rhett Lashlee connection as an Arkansas alma mater, and he’ll have to answer questions about the opening for that reason, I personally don’t see a significant threat for him to depart Dallas for Fayetteville — so I expect that to be brushed aside by those in the building.
TNIAAM: Kevin Jennings has 5 interceptions on the season so far. Is it a case of trying to force plays or has he just been unlucky?
SH: The best way to assess this is walking it through interception by interception. The first pick vs. East Texas A&M of the FCS was an underthrown slant in the end zone — probably his worst throw of the season. The Baylor interception was a jump ball to tight end Matthew Hibner that needed a bit more air. Hibner was running a wheel route to the end zone, but the heave was instead sniffed out by Baylor’s free safety. For the Baylor game, it’s worth noting the first play of that game was a near interception ricocheted off the defender’s hands into a highlight 75-yard touchdown. Moving on, the Missouri State interception occurred on the opening drive. That ended up being a low-percentage throw into double coverage as the safety perfectly read the route, deflected the ball upward and snagged it on its way down. The two TCU interceptions were quite excusable as they transpired in the late fourth quarter on desperation throws down 11 with under five minutes remaining — so the game was pretty much decided either way.
Jennings attempts a more difficult throw profile than most college quarterbacks, and he’s purely unafraid to test the deep ball. This approach will result in more interceptions than dink-and-dunk quarterbacks, but outside of the turnovers, his 68.3 completion percentage with the passes he’s attempting is quite stellar.
TNIAAM: The Syracuse defense has struggled to stop the run this season. How do you expect SMU to attack the Orange when they have the ball?
SH: SMU uses the passing game to open up the run. The Mustangs will set things up with a mixture of wide receiver screens and downfield shots. What’s great about SMU’s receiving corps — which includes the tight ends RJ Maryland and Matthew Hibner — is the group’s route versatility. Whether it’s Jordan Hudson, Jalen Cooper, or Romello Brinson, or even Maryland, almost everyone on the team is a capable deep threat 30 yards past the line of scrimmage yet can thrive in the short-throw game. SMU is predominantly an aerial offense this year, but UCLA transfer running back T.J. Harden has excelled as the lead back with 5.4 yards per carry — gathering 115 yards and three touchdowns on Baylor. One element of the Mustangs’ offense you shouldn’t expect to see vs. Syracuse is the quarterback run game as Jennings’ mobility has been hampered by an ankle injury, which showed at TCU in Week 4.
TNIAAM: Rickie Collins is making just his 2nd career start in this one. Which SMU defenders are the ones to watch as Syracuse tries to rebound after only scoring 3 points against Duke?
SH: SMU is all about havoc at the defensive line. This was the Mustangs’ No. 1 strength during their 2024 playoff push. Even with a revamped d-line this season, the unit still remains potent as Cam Robertson and Jeffrey M’ba both feature three sacks on the season, and SMU ranks in the upper quartile of the FBS in both sacks and tackles for loss. But the concern with the Mustangs is what happens in instances when the quarterback gets enough time. SMU allows more passing yards than anyone else in the country, and the defense is looking to combat this unwanted statistic by shuffling roles (moving corners to nickels and vice versa) and deepening the rotation — because the lack of fresh legs in the secondary showed in fourth quarters vs. Baylor and TCU. The main name to watch on the back end is reigning First Team All-ACC strong safety Isaiah Nwokobia. Nwokobia leads the unit in tackles after registering 100 stops in the prior year, and he’s a true ballhawk with 10 interceptions in a Mustang uniform. Despite the struggles in the pass defense, the Nwokobia-led SMU defense remains a force at generating takeaways — also a strength of the 2024 CFP team.
TNIAAM: Who do you think wins this game and why?
SH: SMU wins, 35-20. Syracuse’s offense sees a stronger performance with Rickie Collins gaining additional comfort at quarterback while pitted against the nation’s last-ranked passing defense. I don’t think Syracuse’s run game will succeed in Dallas, but the Orange can reach the end zone several times with a more aerial-centric offense. However, SMU’s explosive attack should see a favorable matchup itself against a Syracuse team which surrendered 500 yards in consecutive weeks. The Mustangs are equipped with tremendous skill position talent and speed, and there should be a slew of 20+, 30+ touchdowns Saturday in Dallas. Rhett Lashlee’s team received a perfectly opportune bye week to improve the health of an injury-riddled roster, and the Mustangs will be fresh and ready from the get-go after an emotional loss to arch-rival TCU.
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Thanks again to Steve for the time. You can follow him @s_helwick on Twitter.
