The Buffalo Bills reclaimed their footing in the AFC East with an exciting 44-32 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Highmark Stadium, improving to 7-3 on the season. In a game that featured nine
lead changes, quarterback Josh Allen continued to write his name deeper into the NFL record books, accounting for six total touchdowns. Yet, for all the offensive success — Buffalo racked up 451 total yards — the defense showed cracks, surrendering 202 rushing yards and allowing Baker Mayfield to carve them up for 212 total yards and two scores.
As the Bills gear up for a short-week showdown with the Houston Texans on Thursday Night Football, it’s time to assess the stock market of player performances. Who’s surging toward MVP conversations, and who’s in need of a reality check? Let’s dive into the top three trending up, the top three trending down, and some honorable mentions while using NFL advanced metrics to frame the discussion.
Top 3 Bills players trending up
1. Josh Allen, QB – The Unstoppable Force
Unleash the Beast. Week 11 might be remembered as the day offensive coordinator Joe Brady learned to live with the chaos and trust the force behind it. Despite a rocky start with an awful interception on Buffalo’s first offensive possession, Allen flipped the script, finishing with 317 passing yards, three touchdowns through the air, 40 rushing yards, and three scores on the ground. This marked the third time in NFL history a player has achieved three passing and three rushing touchdowns in a single game, and the second such feat for number 17 in his career.
The reigning NFL MVP’s advanced metrics highlight his dominance: since the Week 8 bye, Allen boasts a +0.67 EPA per dropback on downfield throws (10+ air yards), ranking second in the league, with five such touchdowns (most in the NFL). Against man coverage, Allen went 11-of-17 for 166 yards and two touchdowns, while his 7-of-13 completion rate on deep balls yielded 168 yards and two scores. Allen’s ability to rebound from turnovers (Buffalo overcame three total) sends his trajectory upward; he’s leading the NFL with 25 total TDs, and his 68.2% adjusted completion percentage over expected (CPOE) this season suggests his accuracy is up there with the best numbers of his career.
It was a performance where we could see the return of the Josh Allen everybody loves — the unstoppable force of nature leading the offense as the centerpiece of it, not something to save them when the run game doesn’t work. If this Bills’ team is going somewhere, it’ll be led by this Josh Allen, and playing complementary football to help him.
2. Tyrell Shavers, WR – Hard Work Pays Off
In a receiving corps plagued by inconsistencies, former undrafted player Tyrell Shavers emerged as the feel-good story of Week 11. Thrust into a larger role with Keon Coleman sidelined, Shavers hauled in four catches on five targets, for 90 yards and a touchdown — a 43-yard bomb from Allen that flipped the momentum in the second quarter.
Shavers’ 22.5 yards per reception shattered his season average of 12.8, and he added crucial blocking in the run and screen game, no more so than during running back Ty Johnson’s 52-yard score. Advanced metrics from Next Gen Stats highlight his explosiveness: Shavers’ 28% target share on deep routes (20+ air yards) outpaced veterans like Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel. His route-running precision — evidenced by a 92.4 Pro Football Focus (PFF) route grade — turned a potential offensive weakness into a strength.
As Buffalo searches for reliable targets beyond Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid (out with a hamstring injury), Shavers’ poise, making the most of his opportunity under pressure, signals a rising role. It will be hard not to keep feeding him, especially in the red zone, where his 2.1 EPA per reception led Bills wideouts. It’s always great to see the hard work and professionalism paying off.
3. Cole Bishop, S – Defensive Anchor in the Secondary
Amid a run defense that continued to struggle, safety Cole Bishop stood as a pillar of reliability, earning praise as Buffalo’s top defender in the unit. The second-year pro logged 67 defensive snaps, notching six tackles (three solo), a pass breakup, and a game-changing diving interception, surprising Baker Mayfield and sparking Buffalo’s late run to secure the win.
Bishop’s tackling efficiency was solid, with no missed tackles on his six attempts for a rare 100% success rate. His pick created a +3.8 EPA swing for Buffalo, the largest single-play impact on defense in the game. In coverage, Bishop allowed just 3.2 yards per target with a 42.1 opponent passer rating — elite marks that place him in the 88th percentile among safeties — bolstered by his 73.2 overall PFF grade, fourth-highest on the Bills’ defense.
With veteran safety Jordan Poyer as his early downs partner and mentor, and rookie defensive back Jordan Hancock helping him to roar on clear passing downs, Bishop’s emergence as the back-end enforcer is no fluke; his +1.9 coverage EPA over the last three games (including his third INT of the season) positions him as a cornerstone for a secondary that’s allowed just 6.8 yards per pass attempt since Week 9. If he continues to trend up like this, Bishop will be on Pro Bowl and even All-Pro consideration sooner rather than later.
Trending Down
1. Joey Bosa, DE – Injury Slow Down
Playing through a wrist injury, Joey Bosa had a day to forget, registering just one tackle and zero pressures in 43 snaps. As Mayfield operated with freedom (sacked only once for a loss of eight yards), Bosa’s lack of impact was glaring, contributing to Buffalo’s paltry 18% pressure rate on third downs. His win rate on pass rushes plummeted to 8.3%, well below his season average of 14.2%, and he generated a -1.1 EPA on his snaps, the worst among Bills linemen. With the Bills ranking 24th in sacks per game (1.9), his inability to collapse the pocket and to set the edge in the run game allowed Tampa Bay’s RB Sean Tucker to amass 106 rushing yards.
Bosa’s stock is trending down not for lack of ability — we’ve seen what a healthy Bosa is capable of — but because injury concerns, as his health has been the biggest concern regarding the veteran since the day he was signed. Giving more snaps to younger edges like A.J. Epenesa and Javon Solomon would be smart to allow the veteran to fully recover — he’s been crucial for the defensive line’s success when healthy.
2. Taron Johnson, CB – Not Looking Like Himself
Slot cornerback Taron Johnson, returning from a groin injury, looked a step slow in a season where he hasn’t looked like his old self. The former All-Pro logged 51 snaps and was targeted three times, allowing two receptions for 39 yards — including an easy completion to Sterling Shepard, where he dropped back too far in zone coverage, leaving the receiver wide open for a first-down conversion. His opponent’s passer rating ballooned to 109.7, the highest of his season, with a coverage grade of 48.2 from PFF — bottom-10 among cornerbacks. Advanced metrics paint a grim picture: Johnson allowed 19.5 yards per reception (up sharply from his 7.2 season mark) and generated just -1.8 EPA in coverage, ranking in the 15th percentile for slot defenders.
Johnson also struggled with something he’s been very reliable with over the years — firing his gun and attacking the line of scrimmage to help the run defense. Johnson often hesitated and was taken off plays, contributing to the unit’s pitiful performance there. While he tallied six tackles (three solo), his missed tackle rate hit 25% on run support — including whiffing on Rachaad White’s 11-yard gain — contributing to Tampa Bay’s 202 rushing yards. With all the wear and tear from playing almost as a linebacker in McDermott’s Nickel Base defense, Johnson’s regression raises alarms. His stock is dipping, with his body potentially breaking down and maybe ceding more snaps to Cam Lewis, who has been playing very well.
3. Keon Coleman, WR – Accountability Wake-Up Call
Second-year wideout Keon Coleman has failed to live up to the training camp hype and was benched as a healthy scratch in Week 11 after arriving late to a team meeting — yet another off-field lapse in a season marred by accountability issues. Absent from the game, Coleman’s role in Buffalo’s receiving corps is up in the air, with options like Tyrell Shavers and Gabe Davis stepping up into expanded roles and taking advantage of it.
On the field, Coleman’s play hasn’t inspired confidence. Through 10 games this season, he’s managed just 32 receptions for 330 yards and three touchdowns—averaging a modest 10.3 yards per catch, which ranks near the bottom among qualifying wide receivers. His average depth of target sits at 12.7 yards, per Next Gen Stats, but inconsistent effort shows in lazy routes and poor separation, leading to a catch rate under 55%. He’s also dropped three passes on contested catches, contributing to a 66.3 overall PFF grade that’s only average (50th among 85 wideouts). Metrics like his 0.20 EPA per route run (expected points added, a measure of efficiency) are middling at best, reflecting limited impact despite a high number of snaps.
Off the field, reports of repeated tardiness and teammates calling him out show he has lacked the maturity to deal with the pressure of being an important piece not living up to the expectations. After a rookie year derailed by injury, and now these maturation issues piling up, his stock is in freefall. I still believe he has the talent to succeed at the NFL level, but he has to wake up soon. At 22, there’s time to grow, but the Bills need more now, and others have shown they are ready to deliver.
Honorable Mentions
Trending Up:
- WR Gabe Davis – Back in a Bills uniform, he snagged three catches for 40 yards, including a clutch fourth-down grab, with a 1.9 EPA. Seemed ready to help with great chemistry with Allen.
- LB Dorian Williams – The third-year linebacker exploded for seven tackles, a pass defended, a QB hit, and a fumble recovery that swung momentum after a DaQuan Jones sack, generating +2.1 EPA in disruption plays and an 82.5 PFF grade (top-2 among Bills defenders).
- Ray Davis (RB/KR) – Four returns averaging 39.5 yards set up short fields, injecting life into special teams (+3.2 EPA on returns).
Trending Down:
- Josh Palmer (WR) – Two grabs on five targets for 17 yards in his return; expected to be a major part of the offense and a difference-maker for Allen, he’s been just a guy; his 0.4 AY/PT lags behind peers, signaling a depth chart slide.
Final Thoughts
In a season of highs and lows, this win was a reminder of Buffalo’s ceiling. The defense has flaws, but it has also improved with McDermott back calling the shots. The offense can be dynamic with the right catalyst powering it — their unique generational QB — instead of a well-schemed running game. Going this route can generate more mistakes and turnovers on the offensive side of the ball, and also more high-scoring games like this last one. However, Buffalo can be confident they always will have a good chance at coming out of these on top, since nobody in the league is more prolific than an in-rhythm number 17, wearing his Superman cape. Unleash the Beast, play well around him, and see the magic happen.
Catch up on all this and more with the latest edition of Leading the Charge!
