The stage is set. Monday Night Football in Indianapolis. Philip Rivers starts his second game for the Colts, and a 49ers win clinches a playoff berth. DeForest Buckner should be activated off IR, setting
up an old friend scenario. Unfortunately, Charvarius Ward was placed on IR, so that reunion won’t happen. The 49ers are looking to snap a five-game losing streak to Indianapolis. Their last victory was on November 25, 2001, against Peyton Manning as the 49ers won 40-21 and sent Indianapolis head coach Jim Mora into his infamous “PLAYOFFS” rant.
So how do the 49ers leave Indy with the win and a playoff berth? Here are three things to watch for on Monday.
Running Outside Zone vs the Colts defense
While the 49ers’ running game has been inconsistent in 2025, to put it nicely, and the Colts’ defensive line presents a tough challenge, Kyle Shanahan would be wise to utilize more outside runs on Monday night. Let’s be frank, the numbers when running outside aren’t pretty. With an outside run rate of 46.8% (16th in the NFL), the 49ers are 30th (!) in EPA on outside runs at -0.15.
If there is one place to attack this Colts defense, it is on the outside. Indianapolis’ run defense on inside runs is number one in the league with an EPA of -0.24. Buckner’s return only makes that task harder. However, teams have rushed outside against the Colts at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (53.5%), and they are middle of the pack in EPA at -0.02 (17th).
Attacking the edges with runs and designed throws to Christian McCaffrey can be the key to keeping the offense rolling.
Selling out to stop the run and Philip Rivers ADOT
Look, I’m not making an old man joke here, but anyone who watched Rivers play on Sunday in Seattle saw a man physically incapable of pushing the ball downfield. Short, quick throws to set up YAC is the name of the game with Rivers under center. Meanwhile, the 49ers’ tackling and run defense have been poor of late. You can expect the Colts to hand the ball off as much as possible, as long as the game script allows. You can’t ask the 49ers to turn into a top-five rush defense in this game, but the focus has to be slowing down Taylor and making Rivers beat them.
The Colts are third in the league with an inside run rate of 64.2%, but that torrid pace that Taylor was on has tapered off considerably. If the 49ers can get back Sam O, Tatum Bethune, and Yetur Gross-Matos in this one, they can improve this run defense and have the Colts play into their hands.
Late Game and Red Zone
The 49ers are top five in late-game offensive success rate (53.9%, 2nd) and red zone EPA (0.17, 4th). The Colts’ defense has struggled down the stretch of games, with a late-game defensive success rate of 48.6% (26th), but is very stingy in the red zone (-0.08, 8th). If the 49ers can continue their red zone success in 2025, it would shift the pressure on the Colts’ offense and make their playcalling more predictable. While you’d like to put this game away earlier, if it does come down to crunch time, the smart money is on the 49ers offense to deliver.
