I still think the Nuggets will be good.
I do not know if they are as good as the name recognition makes them seem.
Jokić is so dominant that it is easy to overlook how questionable the rest of the roster looks, and this offseason did not really fix any of the things I was worried about.
Denver Nuggets: Over/Under 47.5 wins
Over: -130
Under: +105
To win NBA Championship: +2500
To win Western Conference: +1300
To win Northwest Division: +900
Last season: 54-28, third in the West, lost in the first round
Key additions: DeMar DeRozan, Marvin Bagley III, Alpha Diallo, Trevon Brazile, Bryce Hopkins, Lonnie
Walker IV Key losses: Peyton Watson, Tim Hardaway Jr., Bruce Brown, Jonas Valančiūnas
My outlook on Denver is pretty bleak compared to what the name recognition suggests. They did not fix the bench. If anything, I think they made it worse.
Peyton Watson is the loss that bothers me most. He gave them size, athleticism, and defense off the bench, and Denver sent him to Cleveland after failing to work out a long-term solution. Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bruce Brown are gone too, meaning a second unit that was already a problem lost multiple players who could actually be trusted.
And I do not think the replacements make a ton of sense around Jokić. DeRozan is still good, but he is 37, lives in the midrange, and needs the ball. Denver already has Murray and Jokić creating most of the offense, and putting another non-volume three-point shooter around Jokić is not exactly how I would be trying to maximize him. Bagley is another weird one. He can score and rebound, but he doesn’t space the floor and isn’t the kind of defensive center who gives Denver a completely different look behind Jokić.
The Christian Braun problem is still there too. Denver gave him a huge extension before last season, then watched his production fall from 15.4 points on 39.7 percent from three in 2024-25 to 12.0 points and 30.1 percent from three last year. He also missed almost half the season. The Nuggets are basically betting that he just becomes the previous version of himself again.
Then there is Gordon. He is incredibly important to everything Denver does, but he dealt with hamstring problems throughout last season and then had calf tightness in the playoffs. At 31, I do not think you can just assume he suddenly plays 75 healthy games. That matters because this roster is not deep enough to absorb injuries the way better teams can.
Oklahoma City is still loaded. San Antonio is ridiculous. Minnesota is good. Houston is good. Even Portland is getting better. Denver plays in one of the toughest divisions and conferences in basketball.
Jokić will win them a ton of games on his own. That is why I am not projecting some collapse. But 45 or 46 wins, a playoff spot, and another season where Jokić covers up a lot of structural problems feels completely realistic. At plus money, that is enough for me to understand the under. But 45 or 46 wins, a playoff spot, and another year where Jokić masks a lot of structural issues feels completely realistic. At plus money, I can understand the under.
