The Yankees will be without Aaron Judge for at least ten days after he was placed on the IL with a right calf strain suffered in the first inning of the Yankees’ loss to the Twins on Wednesday. It is a potentially mortal blow to their last gasp effort to chase down the Rays in the division. Nonetheless, they found ways to score, especially toward the end of his months-long absence with a broken rib, and they’ll have to tap back into that starting with tonight’s opener against the Diamondbacks
Gerrit
Cole has a point to prove after giving up seven home runs in his last two starts, the most he’s given up in a two-start stretch in his career. Hitters just aren’t chasing his secondary pitches out of the zone in two-strike counts, forcing Cole to become predictable going for strikeouts with in-zone four-seamers. Opponents are increasingly hunting the fastball in counts that should favor Cole, allowing them to barrel pitches they’d otherwise be late on if they had to respect his secondaries. In 20 starts, Cole is 8-9 with a 3.67 ERA (114 ERA+), 3.95 FIP, and 117 strikeouts in 115.1 innings.
The Yankees face old foe Eduardo Rodriguez, in the midst of a renaissance season in year three of the four-year, $80 million deal he signed with Arizona in free agency after posting an ERA north of five his first two years in the desert. He has made 25 appearances against the Yankees in his career, the bulk from his time with the Red Sox, pitching to a 3.80 ERA, 4.41 FIP, and 120:52 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 128 innings. Despite averaging just 92 mph, his four-seamer grades out as fourth-best in MLB because of the way he tunnels it with his changeup, cutter, and curveball. In 30 starts, the 33-year-old southpaw is 15-6 with a 2.62 ERA (160 ERA+), 3.74 FIP, and 135 strikeouts in 178.1 innings.
The Yankees try to fit as many righties into their Judge-less lineup against the lefty, which means Paul Goldschmidt leads off, Heliot Ramos bats third, and Rosario fifth. That being said, their two best hitters against a southpaw are lefties in their own right, Cody Bellinger and Spencer Jones proving that handedness is not the only factor in pitcher-hitter matchup success. The defense let them down multiple times in their extra-innings loss to the Twins and will need to be much sharper against an Arizona offense that’s among the best at putting the ball in play.
The Diamondbacks have just two hitters in their lineup (Pavin Smith and Tim Tawa) who are below league average for the season by wRC+. Gabriel Moreno has established himself as one of if not the best all-around catcher in MLB, with a 139 wRC+ and 5.0 fWAR. He’s surrounded by a decent amount of pop, Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Nolan Arenado each with over 20 home runs on the year.
How to watch
Location: Chase Field – Phoenix, AZ
First pitch: 9:40 pm ET
TV broadcast: YES, DBACKS.TV
Radio broadcast: WFAN 660/101.9 FM, WADO 1280 (NYY) | Arizona Sports 98.7 FM, La Campesina 101.9 FM & 860 AM (AZ)
Streaming: Gotham Sports App, MLB.tv (out-of-market only)
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