Willson Contreras had some interesting comments following yesterday’s 7-6 loss to the D-Backs in which an angry contingent of Fenway fans booed him for not running hard up the first base line during his tenth inning groundout. But before we get to the quotes, here’s a look at the play just to make sure everybody’s up to speed:
Immediately after he arrived back in the dugout, the fuming first baseman engaged with one of the more aggressive fans and had them removed from the ballpark.
After the game, Chris Cotillo of MassLive got the follow quotes from Contreras regarding the incident:
“If you’re a smart fan, you know what’s going on,”
“I’m not gonna get hurt running on a ground ball. If you’re a real fan and you know baseball, there’s no case for me to hustle out of the box.”
“I’m not 100%. We never are, but I’m taking care of my leg. If I have to run, I push it a little bit. If I don’t, my manager has my back. I talked to him and he gave me permission to do whatever it takes to take care of my legs.”
“I was feeling better until last night when I full-stretched my leg and it grabbed me a little bit. My manager knows that.”
On one hand, Contreras is absolutely right. No single groundout is worth hustling over if it means risking blowing out your leg, particularly if you’re unlikely to beat it out anyway. It’s far more prudent to nurse it where he can and save the more taxing efforts for high leverage moments. In this larger context, it all makes sense.
Or, at least it would make sense if the Red Sox were in a slightly different place in the standings. Because while the philosophy holds water while zooming out from an individual play to an entire game, it all gets flipped on its head once you zoom out further from the perspective of an individual game to the remaining season as a whole.
Right now, thanks largely to the gluttonous owners and their absurdly bloated playoff structure, the Red Sox find themselves in the rather ridiculous position of being both far enough behind Tampa for the division lead that they’re extremely unlikely to catch them, but also far enough ahead of the third Wild Card cutoff that they’re extremely unlikely to fall out of a postseason spot. They’re so far removed from a meaningful tension point, Fangraphs gives them a 95.1 percent chance to make the playoffs, but just a 2.7 percent chance to win the division. In other words, there’s a 92.4 percent chance they’re going to end up in that best-of-three Wild Card round.
Circling back to Contreras and his leg, if we’re going to apply the principle of giving up on certain plays with a low likelihood of mattering in favor of long-term health, shouldn’t we apply that same concept to the season as a whole? More to the point: If Willson Contreras can only run some of the time, why isn’t he on the IL?
If his leg is bothering him enough that he needs to (rightfully) manage it on certain low leverage, low probability plays within a game, why aren’t the Red Sox demanding he do the same on certain low leverage, low probability games within a season?
Unfortunately, the single most important thing Contreras can do to help the team right now is be as ready to go as possible for a best-of-three series starting on September 29th. I detest that MLB has come to this, but it’s the reality of being in an oversaturated playoff field. If this was 20 years ago, with just one Wild Card available, the Red Sox and Yankees would be locked in a highly captivating duel for the last crumb on the table. Every game would matter, animosity would be building, and we’d be scoreboard watching like a hawk for six weeks.
In that world, Contreras’ approach of playing through injury in this manner would be on the money. But we don’t live in that world anymore. Instead, we’re basically sitting around seeing how healthy everybody can get for a best-of-three series at the end of September. (I can’t tell you how angry this makes me as a baseball fan!)
In any case, the Red Sox are already playing the “get ready for September 29th” game with Justin Slaten and Garrett Whitlock, who are both on the IL. And the funny thing is, not having either of them around to pitch in the top of the tenth yesterday was a whole hell of a lot more impactful in terms of why they lost that game than Contreras not running out his grounder. So if we’re going to swim in those waters, why be inconsistent about it?
Oh, and if your concern here has anything to do with the bottom falling out in a potential Contreras absence, don’t worry about it. This group has already proven they can handle the ship in short bursts without their stars. Since July 1st, Contreras has missed or left 11 games from either suspension, sickness, injury or rest, and the Sox are 10-1 in those contests.
Ultimately, the bottom line is this: Contreras is either healthy enough to run down the first base line consistently or he’s not, and if he’s not, he shouldn’t be in these games. They’re not important enough. (Thanks MLB!)
Lastly, the Red Sox medical staff has already had a disastrous year in terms of diagnosing the initial severity of injuries, and if this season ends up crashing and burning in part because Willson Contreras ends up out for the year on an injury that could have healed with rest, I’m going to be a whole lot angrier than the fans who were booing Contreras at Fenway Park yesterday.
