It might be hard to believe it’s been this long already, but this is already going to be Ronit Shah’s fourth draft leading the Atlanta Braves amateur talent evaluations since Dana Brown left to take over the Astros GM role early in 2023. With the draft now just days away I thought it would be a good time to look at Shah’s hits and misses in the draft, and try to determine any possible patterns we might see.
First Round Picks
In the three first round picks there hasn’t been anything to learn in terms
of a pattern. In 2023 the 24th pick was Hurston Waldrep, a college righty, who was fairly widely expected to be gone at that point. In 2024 the 24th pick was prep lefty Cam Caminiti, who was very much expected to be gone by that time. Last year they went against what most media boards had and took underslot prep infielder Tate Southisene at 22. There isn’t a real pattern because it’s two pitchers, one righty and one lefty as well as one college and one prep, both of whom were projected to be selected earlier in the round. Then there was a toolsy, but advanced hit tool prep infielder in Southisene who was both a talent and a money saver. If anything can be learned, it would be that if a talented player drops to the Braves, they will take that player.
The results of these picks has been strong. Both Caminiti and Southisene presently rank in Top 100 prospect lists, while Waldrep showed his potential in the big leagues last year – though health has slowed him so far this year.
Second through Sixth Rounds
In 2023 the Braves had an extra second round pick and went college righty handers Drue Hackenberg and Cade Kuehler in the second, followed by college slugging infielder Sabin Ceballos, projectable prep righty Garrett Baumann overslot, toolsy but raw local prep outfielder Isaiah Drake overslot, and then advanced pitchability college righty Lucas Braun to close out these early rounds.
In 2024 we saw college lefty Carter Holton, injured but talented college righty Luke Sinnard, college lefty Herick Hernandez, prep slugging catcher Nick Montgomery overslot, and then prep righty Ethan Bagwell overslot to complete their early rounds.
Last year the Braves had a pair of fourth round picks, and they used their early picks to pick college shortstop Alex Lodise, underslot but speedy and hitterish college infielder Cody Miller, a big overslot deal on prep lefty Briggs McKenzie, prep two way star Conor Essenburg overslot as a bat, and college lefty Landon Beidelschies to close things out.
The one thing that is clear here is that the Braves like to get their pitching in these early rounds. They are also willing to take chances on some guys with health concerns, and will throw overslot money to preps here.
These picks have had mixed results so far. I won’t judge the 2025 class yet, as it’s less than a year since they were drafted – but the early returns are promising, especially on McKenzie and Essenburg. The other drafts have seen a mix of promise (Baumann, Sinnard, Drake, Bagwell, Hernandez), injury (Hackenberg, Kuehler, Holton, Sinnard again), and guys who haven’t quite worked out (Ceballos, Kuehler). However this is a place the Braves seem to have done well since Shah became the man atop the amateur scouting ladder.
Seventh through Tenth Rounds
Welcome to senior sign territory. This is where the Braves have drafted almost exclusively college players, and almost all of them for significantly underslot bonuses.
In 2023 college righty Justin Long wasn’t a senior sign, but fellow college right handers Cory Wall and Riley Gowens were senior signs. College outfielder Pier-Olivier Boucher was another senior sign, and a guy with some promising untapped potential at the time.
The next year the choices were four college senior sign pitchers. Right handers Brett Sears, Logan Samuels, and Owen Hackman, and lefty Jacob Kroeger were the choices. Sears came from a big school in Nebraska, while the other three came from smaller schools, with Hackman from a mid major and Samuels and Kroeger from smaller division baseball.
Last year started with a non-senior sign in college righty Zach Royse, then the senior signs started with college righty Carter Lovasz, college outfielder Logan Braunschweig, and college righty Kade Woods – an MLB Draft League selection.
You don’t really expect much from senior signs, but the returns here have been positive. Gowens was used in a trade and the early returns from Sears, Lovasz, and Braunschweig are promising. Even Woods has flashed potential while healthy. Still you can expect to see the Braves save money in these rounds, and they typically like to do so with pitchers.
Rounds 11-15
The 2023 draft produced a college hit tool based utility guy in Jace Grady, the unsigned college infielder Brady Day out of the Cape Cod League, JUCO infielder Will Verdung, small college lefty Mitch Farris, and JUCO righty David Rodriguez.
In 2024 the choices were hit tool and speed college outfielder Patrick Clohisy, slightly overslot prep righty Cayman Goode, JUCO infielder known for speed Colby Jones, college first baseman Mason Guerra, and toolsy prep outfielder Owen Carey – at just $150k.
Last year the Braves went all to slot, starting with four right handed college arms in Colin Daniel, Jay Woolfolk, Logan Forsythe, and Mathieu Curtis. Then they grabbed college outfielder Dallas Macias. Daniel was seen as a potential starter, while the other three were drafted more as pen pieces, and Macias was a guy who had some success at a big time program – but slipped a bit in his draft year.
These rounds are hard to really call a pattern on as the Braves haven’t really had much money to spend. Only one player, Cayman Goode came in over the $150k that doesn’t count against bonus pools. Still the Braves have done well here, as Carey has become one of the better prospects in the system, Farris has been traded away but already made it to the big leagues, and Clohisy is still productive in the system with the 2025 class too soon to judge.
Final 5 Rounds
In 2023 it was college righty Isaac Gallegos, college outfielder Jace Kern, college infielder Cam Magee, college righty Riley Frey, and college catcher Will King to close out the draft.
The next year saw productive college outfielder Titus Dumitru, college righty Jacob Shafer, college hit tool outfielders Jake Steels and Dalton McIntyre, and toolsy Canadian prep outfielder Eric Hartman overslot to close that draft.
Last year we watched the Braves finish out the draft with college right handers Nico Wagner, Brody Fowler, Aiven Cabral, and Ryan Heppner, then finish it off with college first baseman Hayden Friese.
Once again it’s hard to form a pattern here, as the Braves haven’t had money to play with. Only one overslot guy, and everyone else has been a college guy at $150k or less. Still the Braves have done well, as Eric Hartman has emerged as one of the top prospects in baseball, Dumitru was used in a trade, and plenty of other guys from the 23/24 drafts are still in the system.
