The Nittany Lions look to end a four-game skid against the nation’s #1 team.
Penn State (3-4, 0-4) vs. Ohio State (7-0, 4-0)
Kickoff: Noon, Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
The Betting Line: Penn State +20.5
TV:
FOX, Noon, Gus Johnson (play-by-play), Joel Klatt (analyst), Jenny Taft (sideline)
Weather: A cool and breezy day with a high in the low 50s and little chance of rain.
COACHES:
Terry Smith (Interim):
PENN STATE RECORD: 0-1, 1st Year
OVERALL RECORD: 0-1, 1st Year
VS. OHIO STATE: 0-0
Ryan Day:
OHIO STATE RECORD: 77-10, 7th Year
OVERALL RECORD: Same
VS. PENN STATE: 6-0
FUN FACTS
(Fun facts is currently on hiatus, and will return once Penn State Football shows any sign of being fun again)
OHIO STATE OFFENSE VS. PENN STATE DEFENSE
Julian Sayin has not hit many bumps in his first year leading the Buckeyes offense, and is looking more and more like a Heisman finalist each week. Sayin has developed a knack for finding soft spots in the defense, and has been near-perfect under center with an extremely talented surrounding cast. The sophomore is completing 80 percent of his passes with 19 touchdowns and just three interceptions, and has thrown for more than 300 yards in four of seven starts – including a career-high 393 yards against Wisconsin in his last outing. He also has yet to throw an interception in conference play.
It helps that Sayin has perhaps the nation’s two best receivers on the perimeter. An easy argument can be made that Jeremiah Smith is the best overall player in college football, and is a big play waiting to happen at any moment. If defenses key on taking Smith out of a play, then future first round pick Carnell Tate can take over. The duo have combined for 83 catches, 1,189 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns on the year. The Buckeyes also have one of the nation’s best tight ends in Max Klare, formerly of Purdue.
The Buckeyes running game has been inconsistent at times, but they do have a deep rotation that gives them the ability to go with the hot hand. Bo Jackson has been a standout in his freshman year, although he has seen his productivity decline during Big Ten play. The Buckeyes also landed CJ Donaldson from West Virginia, who is a versatile back who can do a little bit of everything. Both Jackson and Donaldson fit prominently in the passing game as well.
Ohio State’s offensive line has done well protecting Sayin, giving up just three sacks on the year.
Penn State’s defense will no doubt need to add to that total for a chance of victory on Saturday as Sayin can easily stay on rhythm when given time in the pocket. This will also be a major opportunity for the Nittany Lions secondary, especially AJ Harris who has struggled despite being a projected first round pick heading into the season. Not only will the secondary need to excel in coverage, they will also need to find a way from allowing Smith to make big plays in contested coverage as he has proven he can do time and time again.
The Buckeyes will also look to exploit Penn State’s linebackers, as the unit has fallen off since Tony Rojas was lost for the year. Ohio State has the athleticism to get the linebackers out of place and make plays over the middle of the field.
PENN STATE OFFENSE VS. OHIO STATE DEFENSE
Ethan Grunkemeyer was solid in his first start at quarterback against Iowa, but will need to quickly improve against a Buckeyes defense loaded with NFL talent. He finished 23-0f-39 for 198 yards against the Hawkeyes, with a touchdown and two interceptions. It should be noted that the interceptions included a ball that went through the receiver’s hands, as well as an “arm punt” on a third-and-long.
Grunkemeyer will have his work cut out for him as he faces the nation’s top-ranked defense on the road. The Buckeyes defense has been exceptional, even by their own lofty standards. Ohio State is yielding a measly 216.9 yards per game and just 5.86 points per game — both top in the nation. They are deeply talented at all three levels with not many soft spots to identify.
The Buckeyes do an excellent job of confusing offenses as well. Safety Caleb Downs lines up all over the field to make it difficult to locate the nation’s best defensive player from down to down. They also like to disguise coverages and pass rushers, making quarterbacks guess where pressure will be coming from and who will unexpectedly drop back in coverage.
There are standouts throughout the defense, but linebackers Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles make it hard to find any openings. The duo are the two leading tacklers on the team and show up everywhere else on the stat sheet. Caden Curry is the new torchbearer for Ohio State’s passrushers under Larry Johnson Sr. Curry leads the team with seven sacks and 10.5 TFLs, and is just one of many that Penn State will need to keep out of the backfield.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Buckeyes will typically take their chances on 4th down rather than kicking a long field goal, with just one attempt beyond 40 yards this season. Kicker Jayden Fielding is 8-of-10 on field goals, with a long of 38 yards. Punter Joe McGuire has an average of 41 yards, although many punts have been on a short field.
PREDICTION
Ohio State-30, Penn State-10
It’s hard to believe that not long ago this game was viewed as the college football’s most-anticipated match-up of the regular season. Things sure have changed.
Putting all that aside, this game comes down to a couple simple truths — Ohio State has been the much better team at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and that they will have the easier time moving the ball on Saturday. Even a maximum effort that musters a few turnovers and big plays may only keep it close. Ohio State has the talent on both sides to eventually pull away, even if Penn State manages to keep it close for a while.
