Steve Kerr called it a “pattern” after Sunday night’s loss in Denver. I’m guessing he was being diplomatic. What’s happening to the Warriors in the third quarter this season is a “pattern” in the same way that Michael Myers has a pattern of hunting down the residents of Haddonfield on a recurring basis. It’s more of a haunting curse, 12 minutes of true horror.
Golden State lost to the Nuggets 116–93 in their final game of March, but the score barely tells the story. They walked into halftime up 53–46,
playing the kind of disciplined, connected basketball that travels against real teams. Then the third quarter arrived and Denver bodied them 40–21. That run knocked the air out of Golden State’s sails and effectively ended the game.
And that part is the problem; not just that it happened, but that it keeps happening.
Per NBA.com, over the last ten games, the Warriors have posted a –21.9 net rating in the third quarter. Their defensive rating in those minutes is 128, a number that doesn’t belong anywhere near a team trying to hold onto a playoff spot.Everything that can go wrong is going wrong at once.
In that timespan, they’re giving up 7.5 points off turnovers in those third quarters, bad enough for dead last in the league. Second-chance points allowed? Fourth worst. Opponents fast break points? Third worst. Opponents;‘ points in the paint? Fourth worst.
And when you zoom in, the games start to blur together in a way that feels less like a slump and more like a script. Here’s the 3rd quarter post mortem from a handful of games over their last 10 where their opponents went ham:
- Atlanta, 39–20.
- New York, 38–26.
- Washington, 34–20.
- Detroit, 30–23.
Over the last five games alone, the Warriors own a –33.3 net rating in the third quarter. Daaaamn.
What makes it hit deeper is the memory of what this quarter used to be. There was a time when halftime leads against Golden State felt temporary, even when they were big. JJ Redick once talked about sitting in a locker room up 20 and feeling uneasy. Not because of what had happened, but because of what was coming.
The third quarter wasn’t just where the Warriors pulled away. Rather, it was where they made teams understand the game was over.
Klay Thompson scoring 37 in a quarter.
Steph Curry outscoring an entire Pelicans team by himself.
Four seasons of a +16.7 third-quarter net rating that made even the 73-win dominance feel explainable.
They went beyond winning the minutes; they broke teams in them with sheer joy and execution.
Now the numbers tell the opposite story. Golden State sits at a –1.8 third-quarter net rating on the season, 18th in the league, on a team that is exactly neutral overall. The obvious explanation is also the incomplete one. Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Moses Moody have their knees encased in carbonite. The depth that used to carry the system through all 48 minutes has thinned out to the point where the third quarter asks for something the roster can’t consistently give.
The dynasty version of this team spent two quarters applying pressure and then made you pay for it when your legs went. This version absorbs that pressure and runs out of answers when the game tightens. Kerr sees it. But there are seven games left, and the math hasn’t closed yet. If this team is going to extend its season at all, it won’t come from rediscovering who they used to be. It’ll come from surviving the stretch that keeps ending them.The third quarter used to reveal the Warriors at their most inevitable. Now it’s where everything unravels.
With some health and some resilience, they’ll be able to go find new ways of third quarter balling. I think?
