You can’t say you didn’t see this one coming. It would have been great to get one of those “because baseball” games. But it’s always important to remember that sometimes Goliath just squashes David, the Globetrotters virtually always win and The Miz and the Brewers are going to beat the Cubs in Milwaukee.
It’s a rare game in the modern era when I think that things get even worse as the game gets later. It’s no secret that as starts, on average, get shorter and shorter over time, the number of wins
and losses recorded by starting pitchers also decreases. I’ve not studied it, but surely it’s not a 1 to 1 ratio. But there’s going to be some correlation there.
I can remember back more than 20 years ago and the not so subtle strategy of running up pitch counts against pitchers like Kerry Wood and Carlos Zambrano. If you can’t hit them, work up the pitch count and get in the pen. As pitch counts have gone down, that strategy is definitely a thing. And it is essentially a no-lose scenario. The pitcher gets deep and gets into the third time through the order with an escalating pitch count, he’s vulnerable. They get him out and you are going to see some depth relievers. Does any of that guarantee victory? Of course not. But it sure helps.
The counterpunch, of course, is building a strong bullpen. Hard to do, but we have slowly seen the rise of stealing the game with your bullpen. Now we see scores of hard throwing, talented relievers at the end of games. A seemingly unending line of guys throwing in the upper 90s. The Cubs do not have a strong bullpen. The Brewers do. Ergo, this was a rare game where I didn’t feel more comfortable as the Cubs held the Brewers scoreless longer. Even after Seiya Suzuki’s solo homer, I assumed the Brewers would eventually outlast the Cub bullpen.
I was not wrong. Ho hum. An entirely expected result with a few innings of false hope sprinkled on top.
Three Positives:
- Colin Rea. The one thing you absolutely could not have was a very short start. Rea matched Miz for five innings. He was charged with a run in the sixth.
- Seiya Suzuki provided a brief ray of hope with his solo homer. Added a walk and a sacrifice fly.
- Alex Bregman with a single and walk.
Game 82, June 26: Brewers 6, Cubs 2 (44-38)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Colin Rea (.137). 5 IP, 23 BF, 5 H, 3 BB, ER, 4 K
- Hero: Seiya Suzuki (.100). 1-2, HR, 2 RBI, R, BB, SF
- Sidekick: Alex Bregman (.042). 1-3, BB
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Ethan Roberts (-.260). IP, 5 BF, 2 H, BB, 2 R (0-2)
- Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.122). 0-4, DP
- Kid: Nico Hoerner (-.091). 0-4
WPA Play of the Game: Garrett Mitchell’s two-out, two-run homer in the sixth off of Ethan Roberts. (362)
Mets Play of the Game: Immediately before that, Roberts got a line drive double play with runners on first and second and no outs. (.204)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 81 Winner: Pete Crow-Armstrong received 74 of 168 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +20
- Michael Busch +18
- Ben Brown +13.5
- Carson Kelly +12.5
- Trent Thornton +11.5
- Jacob Webb/Jameson Taillon -8
- Edward Cabrera -9.5
- Phil Maton -10
- Caleb Thielbar -13
- Seiya Suzuki -20.5
Up Next: Game two of the weekend three-game set in Milwaukee. David Peterson (3-6, 6.09) makes his Cub debut. I suspect he is too much of a pro to have actual tears in his eyes the first time the Cubs turn a double play behind him. The Mets defense has been exceptionally bad and the Cub defense has been quite good. The Brewers start Kyle Harrison, the promising young lefty. Harrison is 8-1 with a 2.50 in 14 starts. If you ask me, this is a second complete mismatch and the Cubs will struggle for any offense for a second straight day.
It’ll be interesting to get a look at Peterson as a Cub, at least.
