The eight-game winning streak for the 16th-ranked Crimson Tide is over after the upset loss in Athens this past Tuesday, and with it, so too are the slim hopes of backdooring a share of the SEC Regular Season Title. Alabama’s chances of playing its way up to a 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament just got a lot harder as well, as it will likely take a deep run in Nashville (assuming the committee hasn’t already set the bracket before the Tide even takes the floor on Friday) in order for Nate Oats’ team
to push up to that 3-line and avoid sharing a quadrant with one of the absolutely loaded 1-seeds this year. It was a tough loss considering all of that, but it was far from a bad one – this ain’t your dad’s Dawgs in Athens this year.
Regardless, Alabama must turn the page, as it is officially March. Senior Day has arrived in Tuscaloosa, and the Tide will be looking to send its departing players out with a final victory in Coleman Coliseum against the hated Auburn Tigers on Saturday night. Nepo-baby Steven Pearl and his Tigers have been in a free fall since these two teams met in Lee County last month, as they have dropped seven of their last nine games and have fallen from safely in the Big Dance to smack-dab on the cutline. A Tide win tonight would put Auburn at 16-15 going into the SEC Tournament next week, and it’s simply unfathomable to me that the committee would put a .500 team in the field – I don’t care how tough their strength of schedule was this year.
So, Alabama has a chance to not only sweep Auburn, but also essentially eliminate them from the NCAA Tournament and vanquish them to the NIT.
From Last Time
Three Keys to Victory
Defend without Fouling. Auburn’s offense is heavily Iso-driven. This team does not share the ball well (301st in the country in A/FGM). However, they are very good at getting past defenders in one-on-one situations and drawing contact in order to get to the free throw line. In fact, they are #2 in the entire country in doing so. Whoever is guarding Hall better be absolutely ready to go. He’s personally 28th in the country in individual Free Throw Rate. Guy has a deep bag of moves, so whether it’s Amari Allen, Latrell Wrightsell, TBB (if he plays), etc. his primary defender needs to be exhausting his energy on the defensive end of the court.
Offensive Boards. The Tigers are one of those teams that utilize their athleticism and their desire to live in the paint as a springboard for being really good at offensive rebounding, where they rank 14th in the country. However, they don’t have much size or depth, so they also give up a ton of offensive boards (242nd in OREB% Allowed). Alabama hasn’t been great in either category, so the Tide needs to bring some real effort here today. Auburn can’t really shoot the ball very well (233rd in the country in 3P%), but they are truly an elite team at getting into the paint and – if they aren’t getting fouled – using their physicality to get extra possessions at the rim.
Attack in Transition. As I mentioned, Auburn isn’t very deep. They only really play 7-8 guys any given game and their Bench Minutes are dead-last in the SEC. Alabama needs to run the Tigers all game if they can. Get out in transition and wear these dudes out. Auburn is already pretty poor defensively, but they turn into turnstiles when they get tired.
When these two teams met in Auburn earlier this season, Alabama played one its sloppiest halves of the year and found itself trailing 41-37 at halftime. Honestly, I remember thinking, “just clean up some of these turnovers and mistakes and this should be an easy Tide win”. And Oats’ team did just that. The gameplan was pretty well executed outside of those dumb mistakes, as Alabama attempted as many free throws as Auburn did, kept it competitive on the glass, and made light work of Auburn’s porous defense whenever they didn’t turn it over – most of which were unforced.
The Tide went 20/36 from two, 12/23 from deep, and 20/23 from the free throw line. That’ll do. On the flipside, Oats chose to let Auburn attempt a bunch of jump-shots – which looked like it was going to backfire on him early on – but ultimately, the law of averages prevailed, and the Tigers couldn’t buy a shot down the stretch when it mattered most.
As mentioned earlier, since that loss to Alabama, Auburn has been downright bad. Bart Torvik has the Tigers ranked as the 80th best team in the country since the start of February, with an eFG% allowed of 59.8%, which ranks 359th in the country. That nearly 60% eFG% is driven primarily by a truly atrocious perimeter defense. Get this, since February 1st, Auburn is dead last in the entire country in 3P% allowed at 44.7%. Of all 365 teams that play D-1 basketball, Steven Pearl’s Tigers are literally the worst at defending the arc right now. Think that might be kind of important when playing a Nate Oats-coached team?
The Tide is listed as an 8.5-point favorite tonight. I know it’s a rivalry – and Auburn has literally everything on the line – but if they play defense like they have been, this could be an absolute ass-kicking. Game tips at 7:30 PM and will be televised on ESPN if you can’t make it out.
