We’re beginning to learn a lot about every team in the country thus far, and the biggest thing we’re learning is a simple clarification: there actually are great teams, don’t believe the lie. There are three of them, in fact.
Four top-10 teams lost this week. A Behren Morton-less 3rd-ranked Texas Tech went on the road to Tempe and fell to Arizona State, 26-22 while (4) Miami completely imploded offensively, falling to a Louisville team that capitalized on the opportunity to take out the lone ranked team on their
schedule. Previously 8th-ranked Ole Miss fell in Athens in a shootout against Georgia, 43-35, and lastly, 9th-ranked USC continued its struggles on defense under Lincoln Riley, getting flat out bulldozed by 11th-ranked Notre Dame’s running backs in one of the more lopsided 10-point losses you’ll ever see.
TIER TIME: GREAT TEAMS STAY GREAT
The Big Ten has been labeled top heavy, but the truth happens to be it has a handful of very good, top-30 teams, but they all continue to fall to the three best teams in the nation. Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon all rolled this week against three of the bottom four teams in the Big Ten. The Buckeyes blanked Wisconsin in Camp Randall (34-0) for the first time since 1980 in a total drubbing while Indiana rolled off of their momentum from a week ago in a 38-13 beatdown of lowly Michigan State. Oregon bounced back in a big way, crushing Rutgers 56-10. It was also a big day for the premier QB’s of the B1G as Julian Sayin completed 36 of 42 passes for 393 yards and four TDs, Fernando Mendoza aired out Sparty, tallying four touchdown passes to just four incompletions, and Dante Moore responded how he needed to after their loss to the aforementioned Hoosiers a week ago, completing 15 of 20 for 290 yards, four TDs, and an interception. Depending on your preferred betting site, Sayin and Mendoza are two of the leading trio for the Heisman Trophy right now.
What sets these three teams apart is dominance, efficiency, and consistency. There’s one loss between the trio, and it’s Oregon to Indiana. Indiana ranks first in the nation in EPA per play (+0.26 per CFB Graphs) and NET success rate (+21.02%). Ohio State ranks first in Game Score (+0.58), and defensive EPA per play (-0.25), and they rank second in EPA per play (+0.25), NET success rate (+19.23%), yards per play against (3.7), and NET yards per play (2.7). Finally, Oregon leads the nation in NET yards per play (3.6) and are second in yards per play on offense (7.5).
ON THE CUSP: ALABAMA
In a tier on their own just below these three teams is the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Tide unfortunately rolled Tennessee, though what keeps them out of the top three did rear its head here as well. Alabama continues to play with its food a bit too much for my liking. They had Tennessee on the ropes, ready to deliver the knockout blow for much of the middle two quarters, but they continued to let the Vols hang around despite having huge explosive plays, the 99-yard pick six, and a 99-yard TD drive. Alabama has struggled mightily against the run this season, and that was the main reason Tennessee hung around here. The data backs this up as well. The Tide are allowing 4.8 yards per carry on the season at a near 40% success rate.
The flip side of this is that Kalen DeBoer found his next great quarterback. Ty Simpson is the third of the headlining trio for the Heisman at the midway point of the season, and since the Florida State game where he struggled to stay upright, his line has done a solid job keeping him on his feet, allowing him to find his prolific playmakers down the field for huge plays. Simpson has been elite in all facets, captaining the most efficient, explosive passing attack in the SEC. The ground game and defense keep the Tide from taking that leap right now, but should they continue to rack up wins over the coming defenses they’ll see (LSU, OU, Auburn), they likely wedge their way into the ‘great’ tier.
CONFIDENT, CAUTIOUS, or CONCERNED?
This section is pretty simple: do I feel confidence, heir on the side of caution, or am I concerned about each team’s ability to make a run in the CFP, should they make it?
5) Texas Tech — CONFIDENT — do not let the loss to Arizona State fool you, this is a very good, very deep football team. Though they’re not going to find a ton of opportunity for quality wins in a very thin Big XII and likely have to win out to make the CFP, the defense is very real. The Red Raider defense did its job against ASU, generating four sacks and 10 TFL. The unit ranks 2nd nationally in EPA per play against (-0.24), 4th in success rate against (32.2%), and 4th in yards per play against (4.1). In order to maintain confidence, they need Morton to return by the Kansas State game — he’s still listed as day-to-day with a knee injury and likely isn’t needed against Oklahoma State this week — and for the defense to stay its smothering self.
6) Texas A&M — CAUTIOUS — a capable offense led by a an ever developing Marcel Reed, the Aggies find themselves as the lone unbeaten left in the SEC. A&M’s offense will be capable against just about anyone they play, and they avoid Alabama and Georgia this season to boot. The odds that A&M finish no worse than 10-2 are fairly high, but at this point, I am not a believer in this defense long term. UTSA put up over 200 yards rushing against this defense in week one, Love and Price combined for 162 on 35 carries in A&M’s win over Notre Dame, and Arkansas ran circles around this defense with 268 yards rushing on 32 attempts. There are very real concerns with this unit, and I’m curious to see how they do against LSU and a weak rushing attack in Baton Rouge as waiting on the other side of the bye week is Ahmad Hardy and Mizzou.
7) Notre Dame — CAUTIOUS — Notre Dame leans on its rushing attack and defense to get a lead, keep a lead, and keep the ball away from its opponent’s offense. Where things get dicey is when the ball is put in the hands of CJ Carr in close games. Late in their loss to Miami, Carr threw an interception that led to a ‘Canes field goal, and the Irish couldn’t overcome a 10 point deficit. Against Texas A&M, when Carr had to make throws to squash A&M’s comeback throughout the second and third quarter, the Irish offense went interception, turnover, punt while the Aggies took the lead. Carr is capable of making the throws, but he’s struggling to lead the offense against other playoff caliber opponents.
8) Oklahoma — CONFIDENT — now, I’m a little on the fence here as Oklahoma got their offense handled by Texas’s defense, but a less than healthy John Mateer plus a pair of brutal special teams blunders ultimately led to their defeat. I’m a believer in this defense against anybody. It’s a truly elite unit, up there with Ohio State’s. They generate pressure at an unbelievable rate, just a hair over 43%. Venables’ defense is also tops in the nation in success rate against (28.6%) and 3rd in NET success rate (+17.3%). The offense is a bit all over the place, however. Mateer is a great creator and can make anything happen on any given play, but the 3rd and Mateer offense can only go so far. The ground game showed signs of life against South Carolina, but early down success was still few and far between. Oklahoma will end their season with five top-25 games, and while the offense is concerning, a healthy Mateer with this defense can win four of these games and all but clinch a spot in the CFP.
9) Georgia — CAUTIOUS — Georgia just put 43 on Ole Miss, have developed into a consistent offense, but the defense is a solid unit at best that can struggle to get off the field. Its biggest issue is getting opponents behind the sticks on early downs, and while they limit explosives (5.5% explosive rate), they are dead last in the nation in average down and distance on 3rd down (5.91 yards), generate pressure on just 29.8% of dropbacks, and have forced just six turnovers in seven games. While this Georgia offense under Gunnar Stockton is capable of hanging with anyone, Mike Bobo is still calling plays, and the defense simply isn’t getting into advantageous situations and hasn’t been opportunistic enough to create easy opportunities to put teams away.
10) Miami — CONCERNED — it felt as if everybody but ESPN saw this loss coming because that’s how it always seems to go, but Carson Beck threw four picks in Miami’s loss to Louisville, and Miami’s continued struggles on the ground put a game manager QB into bad spots once again. Miami possesses a lot of weapons through the air, but Beck isn’t the kind of quarterback that can win you games. He’s shown us that for three years now. The defense is very good and will likely lead the way as Miami is a heavy favorite to win out in the lowly ACC. They will have two remaining road games against top-40 opponents (SMU, Pittsburgh), and they will be double-digit favorites in both, but this is about projecting down the line. I simply struggle to see a world where Miami is pitted against the best of the best in college football on a neutral site and wins.
