The Cleveland Cavaliers are officially on the ropes. They were properly defeated in Game 3 by the New York Knicks and face elimination on Monday.
Let’s go over today’s losers.
LOSER – The Process
Kenny Atkinson has preached process all season. The Cavs have a plan, and they stick to it. It takes extreme circumstances to get them to stray away from that process. And sometimes, even the extreme isn’t enough.
Josh Hart lit Cleveland up from downtown in Game 2. They continued to bet against him in Game 3. And while he didn’t
bury them all over again, he did convert on a totally uncontested three in the fourth quarter that feels like a backbreaker when you just hand it to him.
Why not just play defense? Because of the process.
The numbers might tell you that leaving Hart open will work in your favor over the long run. The problem is, the playoffs are all about short sample sizes. Why would you test fate to this degree? There’s a human element and a degree of ‘rising to the moment’ that analytics can not account for. If given the choice between guarding Hart or betting on a spreadsheet, I think you should guard Hart.
That same process has led to the Cavs launching three-pointers to no avail. There’s value in an open, or even semi-open, three-point attempt. But only if those shots are falling. You don’t get brownie points for taking good shots. You get a 0-3 deficit for not adjusting.
I’m not saying the Cavs should stop taking open threes. That would be silly. But they have no alternative. They’ve shot below 30% from deep in the series and have not found anything else to fall back on. They can’t get into the paint, they haven’t made any rotational adjustments, and they don’t get enough stops to change things.
It’s all out of whack.
Maybe this is the result of playing against a better team. I think we at least have to acknowledge the possibility that New York is flat-out better at this than the Cavs.
Still, you never want to go down without swinging. You have to throw the kitchen sink. To run into the same wall multiple seasons in a row while pointing to ‘shot quality’ is maddening.
Sure, it’s a make-or-miss league, but the best teams find a way to overcome the odds and win regardless. The Cavs aren’t willing enough to stray away from their process to even find out if that’s possible for them.
Why not play Jaylon Tyson in this game? I understand this team has leaned more on Dennis Schroder throughout the playoffs — but Tyson looked better in his seven minutes tonight than Schroder did. Why not make the adjustment?
The same can be said for Cleveland’s starting lineup, which can jump off the charts analytically, but comes with the glaring weakness of Dean Wade being a non-threat to dribble or shoot. They pivoted to Max Strus in the starting lineup for Game 7 against the Pistons, and they’ve consistently closed games with him over Wade. Maybe put your best players on the floor to start the game?
So many things can be explained away by trusting the process. Trusting a data point that suggests a different outcome was more likely. But… like Josh Hart said after Game 2, analytics can only take you so far.
LOSER – Transition Defense
This game almost got ugly in a hurry.
The Cavs, who should feel like their backs are to the wall, came out flat from an energy perspective. The Knicks looked like the hungrier, more desperate team, and beat the Cavs in transition multiple times (even off made baskets).
It’s one thing to turn it over and have an opponent run wild. It’s a whole other issue if you’re failing to get back after scoring a bucket. That stuff is inexcusable on a Tuesday night in January, let alone the Eastern Conference Finals.
New York outscored Cleveland 17-4 in transition. The margins are, of course, the margins. But losing one of those hustle categories that badly can swing a game. I’m not sure if it would have even mattered, considering how poorly the Cavs shot, but they didn’t do themselves any favors here.
This is a broader trend that stretches back to the start of the season. Honestly, it goes back to their series against the Indiana Pacers a year ago. They tried to address it by focusing on conditioning this season. It didn’t make a difference during the regular season, and it only got worse after trading for James Harden.
