I find this deadline kind of fascinating. It is officially Chaim Bloom’s first deadline, although I am sure he was involved in last year’s deadline. But that alone makes it interesting. I also feel like it is an early signal in how much different things will be than under the current regime compared to John Mozeliak’s tenure. I do not mean in terms of who they get back in a trade. I mean in terms of who they trade.
I am currently writing this on Sunday night and the Cardinals have not made a move
yet. When this gets posted on the website, I wonder if a move will have been made. And I also wonder if when you are reading this, if the Cardinals have made a move yet. I point all of this out, because this deadline could go a number of different ways, but I kind of get the feeling that since no move has been made yet, that we’re going to get the most boring version of how the deadline could go. In other words, expiring contracts and nobody else.
On the podcast, Jake asked me what team I would most like to see a Cardinals player traded to and I honestly do not care at all where players are traded, but my answer does sort of reveal my headspace. I answered Riley O’Brien on the White Sox, because that would be fun, but also if Riley O’Brien is traded, I am going to be very happy with the return. That question revealed to me that I am rooting for the guys who do not need to be traded to be traded, just because that means they are trading them because an asking price has been reached or perhaps surpassed, which isn’t necessarily going to be the case for Dustin May or JoJo Romero or Ryne Stanek.
So when I say the Cardinals should trade Andre Pallante, that’s really what I mean. I will give off the necessary disclaimer that I don’t know if he’s even available in a trade, that I don’t know how many teams really want him, and that it’s possible I would agree with not trading Pallante if I saw who was really being offered. So this entire post is me imagining that there is a market for Andre Pallante. He is the kind of starting pitcher where it wouldn’t surprise me if there’s not much of a market honestly.
However, in theory, the Cardinals should absolutely trade Andre Pallante. I have nothing against Andre Pallante. I am recognizing a pitcher with a limited ceiling, an escalating salary, at his absolute peak value, and whom ideally there’s no room for by the time he reaches free agency. He has two years of control after this year. We are all collectively hoping we don’t want Andre Pallante in the rotation in 2028. I’m getting a head start while he has trade value.
From a 2026 perspective, it works out pretty cleanly, albeit nobody can get injured, which isn’t ideal. Hunter Dobbins and Quinn Mathews should both be in the rotation right now, which means you need to clear out two starters (or have a 6-man rotation, but that doesn’t really work when you have off days). I think Matthew Liberatore should stay in the rotation – there are dozens of us! – and Michael McGreevy and Kyle Leahy are obviously not moving based on their performance. So we can in a literal sense fill his spot.
For next season, Richard Fitts becomes immediate starting pitching depth and if you want more, feel free to sign a starting pitcher. We certainly have the money. Best case scenario, it’s an ace or strong #2. Worst case, you sign another Dustin May. I don’t mean literally Dustin May. I mean the concept of a one-year make-good deal. And by June, maybe Jurrangelo Cjintje or Liam Doyle or Tekoah Roby or Mason Molina or Ixan Henderson look ready for the MLB. All of them will be in AAA.
So I think the Cardinals have the MLB ready depth to trade Andre Pallante. The biggest concern this year is mainly there’s nobody beyond the starting five, but I think that’s just a risk you take in a season you’re pretty sure you won’t make the playoffs. The mere act of trading Dustin May and Andre Pallante already suggests this year isn’t really the priority. If they have to try starting Brycen Mautz again or even try Pete Hansen for the first time, doesn’t seem like the worst case scenario.
As for Pallante himself, he should have some value. He is making $4 million this year and will probably make something like $6-7 million next year and $10-11 million in his last year of arbitration. This is dirt cheap for an effective 4th/5th starter – and he’s pitching better than that right now. His preseason projection was 1.5 WAR while throwing 136 innings. I’m guessing ZiPS views him more like a 2 WAR pitcher now (FIP improved from 4.09 to 3.95 in rest of season projection).
Assuming he has a 2 WAR projection is a relatively safe projection if he stays healthy – because his innings projection would rise if he had back-to-back 160 inning seasons (currently what he’s projected at). If I value his last arbitration year at 1.5 WAR – mostly baking in injury potential – and I take his current rest of season projection of 0.6 WAR, that means until he is a free agent, a team will be trading for 4.1 WAR while paying something like $18 million. That’s a solid surplus value of $23 million ($10 million per win).
Ben Clemens recently introduced an updated model to prospect valuation and that’s equivalent to a 45+ hitter and 40 pitcher. So I don’t think I need to tell you that a top 100 prospect is off the table, but just to give you an idea of how good those prospects are, Yairo Padilla is a 45+ future value prospect according to Fangraphs. So is Joshua Baez, although I think Padilla is the better comp just because Baez is seen as a top 100 prospect by some. So I don’t want to mislead there.
I imagine the 40 future value pitcher is someone with limited potential closer to the majors – maybe a Pete Hansen type or maybe someone very likely to end up in the bullpen. Richard Fitts and Hunter Dobbins are more valuable than this 40 future value guy, but I feel like the concept is similar – especially in a trade of Pallante, getting someone who can get MLB innings now might be something he wants in return.
And if you buy into the theory that deadline prices are more expensive, maybe you can get more than this. Probably not just because I think part of the reason the deadline prices can be pricier is for the playoffs – and Pallante isn’t really someone you grab for the playoffs. I mean some teams would actually like him in the playoffs, but I’m not sure he’ll net a playoff price. And his control years are valuable enough on their own.
Certainly if someone is offering something more valuable than a 45+ FV hitter and 40 FV pitcher, uh yeah definitely trade him. If someone is offering exactly the value I have him as it here, I can see an argument for keeping him, but there is truly no scenario where he gets more than that in the future. Obviously the question is if he can even net that kind of return. I’m not sure.
Lars Nootbaar
Alright, if you were wondering what Lars Nootbaar might return, I’ll do some quick and dirty math. Nootbaar is projected for 0.5 WAR the rest of this season. He came into this season with a 2.2 WAR projection. As of now, I would expect that to be lower for 2027. Let’s just say he’ll be projected for 2 WAR next year, mostly because I think anybody trading for him is expecting that or it’d be weird to trade for him. That means 2.5 WAR. He’s currently making $5.3 million, and there’s about 29% of the season left, so that’s only $1.5 million. He’ll probably make about $8 million next year, so let’s just make it easy and say the receiving team owes him $10 million overall.
That is $15 million in value. Which is a 45+ future value pitching prospect. According to Fangraphs, that’s Brandon Clarke essentially. Someone just outside of the top 100. Or a 45 future value hitting prospect, which is a little bit more nebulous, but I think describes Jesus Baez at this point. Fangraphs has Leo Bernal as one, but I think he’s a better prospect than that, so again I think it’s slightly misleading if I was suggesting that as a return. And to be fair to FG, they made these rankings before the season. It is entirely possible their half season of play has raised their future value (and I might even say probable?)
If the Cardinals chose to hold onto Nootbaar, I’m guessing these offers aren’t on the table. And the Cardinals might be gambling they get more for him in the offseason. If he has a 120 wRC+ in the last two months of the deal, it would not surprise me if teams would be more willing to pay this in the offseason. And if he really explodes and gets hot, I think he would definitely get more in the offseason. Cause right now he just looks like an average outfielder. His underlying metrics support better than that and if you could point to two months worth of delivering and use the foot as an excuse for why not in the past, I mean that doesn’t seem like a hard sell.
I don’t expect the Cardinals to trade Pallante. Nootbaar I’m more 50/50 on. Both Pallante and Nootbaar would suggest a bit of a departure from how Mozeliak operated. Pallante more than Nootbaar. There are comparable situations to Nootbaar, albeit both players were quite literally injured when they were traded (Tommy Edman and Harrison Bader). Pallante would be a big change.
And not to read too much into one day of moves, but if specifically Nootbaar isn’t traded, I think there’s a possibility it’s because Bill Dewitt did not want to trade Nootbaar. Is that a hot take? He’s a fan favorite, I’m sure the owner is a fan of him, and sometimes trades not happening might be because of owners more than we realize. Arte Moreno makes it obvious, but I think it’s possible other owners are better at hiding it. Again, it’s possible the offers just aren’t there, but there’s a chance things don’t change as much as we expect because Bloom still has someone to answer to.
