For the 1st time in franchise history, the Houston Texans are a wildcard team in the NFL playoffs. Another novelty: their playoff run doesn’t start on Saturday in the opening slot. Monday Night Football
will see the Texans face off against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
For those with really long memories, the Houston vs Pittsburgh playoff rivalry was a big deal during the Steelers initial Super Bowl era. Earl Campbell, Terry Bradshaw, Dan Pastorini, Jack Lambert. So many NFL legends went to war in those games.
Unfortunately for H-Town, the Steel City came out on top again and again in those storied matchups.
In the no-longer-existing AFC Central division, the Oilers and Steelers met twice a year, and 2 times in the AFC Championship game. In that era, the Steelers won 4 Super Bowls, while the Oilers ended their existence with none.
Jumping ahead to the new era of H-Town pro ball, the Texans have historically struggled in night games. Going into Monday night’s game, the Steelers lead the series between the 2 franchises 5-3.
NFL teams relying on kickers to generate the lion’s share of their offense tend to struggle in outdoor games in bad weather. The forecast as of this writing for Monday night in Pitt is 34* with 10mph, swirling winds and a 50% chance of precipitation.
Dome teams often struggle in winter, outdoor stadiums.
Those are all valid, historical reasons to give the edge in this game to the Steelers.
But, there’s another historical note that swings in H-Town’s favor: Defense wins championships.
Houston head coach Demeco Ryans and defensive coordinator Matt Burke have assembled, empowered and run an absolute lights out defense all season. If you listen to the NFL talking heads, the Texans are the team no other AFC contender wants to face in the playoffs, rightfully so.
And, numerous prognosticators already have the Super Bowl set as the Texans vs the Los Angeles Rams.
Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. will make Aaron Rodgers’ night absolutely miserable. And, just when the Steelers o-line thinks they have those 2 game-wreckers figured out, Tommy Togiai, Azeez Al-Shaair, Jalen Pitre and Kamari Lassiter are going to make plays.
Another historical marker to watch: dominant defenses playing in inclement weather tend to have slobber-knocker, knuckle-dragging, gut-grinding games with low scores and lots of violence.
How long can 4000 year old Rodgers survive the brutality of the Swarm City dawgs? Unless he has access to Brett Favre’s painkiller collection, there’s a solid chance he doesn’t play the full game.
In more recent history, Houston’s OC still hasn’t figured out how to consistently call positive offensive plays. Facing the T.J. Watt led Steel Curtain, Nick Caley is going to need to channel his inner Bulls on Parade or the Texans’ playoff run will be NFL (not for long).
Houston Texans Wildcard Playoff Stats
- TEXANS qualified for postseason for 3rd consecutive season. Became 5th team since 1990 to begin 0-3 & qualify for postseason. Won 12 games in a season for 2nd time in franchise history (2012).
- QB C.J. STROUD passed for 3,041 yards & 19 TD passes in 2025. Can become 4th QB ever to start & win playoff game in each of 1st 3 seasons. Aims for his 7th in row on road with 200+ pass yards.
- RB WOODY MARKS ranks 6th among rookies with 703 rush yards in 2025. Aims for his 3rd in row on road with 75+ scrimmage yards.
- WR NICO COLLINS led team with 1,132 scrimmage yards & ranked tied-9th in NFL with 1,117 rec. yards in 2025. Is 1 of 4 WRs with 1,000+ scrimmage yards & 5+ TDs in each of past 3 seasons. Has 5+ receptions in each of his 4 career playoff games. Made 2nd-career Pro Bowl in 2025.
- WR JAYDEN HIGGINS ranked tied-2nd among rookies with 6 rec. TDs in 2025. Had 2nd-most rec. TDs by rookie in franchise history.
- TE DALTON SCHULTZ ranked 3rd among TEs in receptions (82) & 6th in rec. yards (777) in 2025.
- DE DANIELLE HUNTER ranked 3rd in NFL with 15 sacks in 2025, 7th-career season with 10+ sacks. Aims for his 5th in row with sack.
- DE WILL ANDERSON ranked tied-4th in NFL with career-high 20 TFL & had career- high 12 sacks in 2025, as he & Hunter were 1 of 3 pair of teammates each with 10+ sacks. Made 2nd-career Pro Bowl in 2025.
- LB AZEEZ AL-SHAAIR led team with 103 tackles in 2025, 3rd-career season with 100+ tackles. Aims for his 3rd in row with 5+ tackles & PD. Made 1st-career Pro Bowl in 2025.
- LB HENRY TO’OTO’O had career-high 9 TFL & 4 PD in 2025.
- CB KAMARI LASSITER ranked tied-5th in NFL with career-high 17 PD in 2025. Aims for his 4th in row with PD.
- CB DEREK STINGLEY had 15 PD this season, as he & Lassiter were 1 of 2 pair of teammates each with 15+ PD. Made 2nd-career Pro Bowl in 2025.
Caley has leaned heavily on kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn all season to get points when Caley’s play calling has failed to do so otherwise. Relying on that in Pittsburgh on Monday night is likely not going to go the way Caley wants, unfortunately.
As much of a stud kicker as Fairbairn is and has been his whole career, the Steelers stadium is notoriously kicker unfriendly. Booting the ball on the carpet in NRG is one thing. Doing it in the open air venue is an entirely different thing. Especially when one end of that stadium opens to the intersection of 3 rivers.
Pittsburgh Steelers Wildcard Playoff Stats
- STEELERS won AFC North for 1st time since 2020. Seeking 1st playoff win since 2016. Surpassed 1965-85 Cowboys (21) for most consecutive seasons with .500+ record.
- QB AARON RODGERS was 1 of 5 QBs with 20+ TD passes (24) & 7-or-fewer INTs (7) this season. Ranks 4th all-time in TD passes (527) & 5th in pass yards (66,274). Needs 79 pass yards to surpass Ben Roethlisberger (5,972) for 3rd-most pass yards ever in playoffs. Needs 2 TD passes to surpass Patrick Mahomes (46) for second-most TD passes ever in playoffs.
- RB JAYLEN WARREN led team with career-high 1,291 scrimmage yards (958 rush, 333 rec.) in 2025.
- RB KENNETH GAINWELL set career highs in scrimmage yards (1,023) & TDs (8), as he & Warren were 1 of 4 pairs of teammates each with 1,000+ scrimmage yards & 8+ TDs this season.
- WR DK METCALF led team with 850 rec. yards in 2025. Aims for his 3rd in row in playoffs with 5+ catches, 95+ rec. yards & 2+ rec. TDs.
- WR BEN SKOWRONEK made 1st-career Pro Bowl in 2025.
- DT CAMERON HEYWARD was only DL with 75+ tackles (78), 5+ TFL (9) & 5+ PD (6) in 2025. Aims for his 3rd in row on road with TFL.
- LB T.J. WATT surpassed HOFer DeMarcus Ware (110.5) for 2nd-most sacks by player in 1st 125 games since 1982. Has 115 sacks since 2017, 5th-most sacks by player in 1st 9 seasons since 1982. Aims for his 4th in row on road with TFL. Made 8th-career Pro Bowl in 2025.
- LB PATRICK QUEEN led team with 120 tackles, 5th-career season with 100+ tackles. Aims for his 5th in row in playoffs with 5+ tackles.
- LB ALEX HIGHSMITH led team with 9.5 sacks & tied career-high 15 TFL in 2025. Aims for his 4th in row with 2+ TFL & aims for his 4th in row in playoffs with sack.
- CB JALEN RAMSEY was only DB with 85+ tackles (88), 5+ PD (8) & 3+ sacks (3) in 2025. Made 8th-career Pro Bowl in 2025. Aims for his 5th in row in playoffs with PD.
Another factor that can’t be ignored from the NFL history books: the impact of officiating. The Steelers, arguably, are the recipients of the most infamous “bad call” ever made: the Immaculate Reception. Had officiating replay existed in the 1970s, that play would have been reversed. Or, at least should have been. Unfortunately, the modern referees make just as many bad calls, despite all the technology at their disposal.
Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers prediction
Despite all the historical indicators, stat lines, weather and officiating, 1 thing tends to separate the teams that advance in the playoffs and those that don’t: the will to win.
Demeco Ryans has instilled that in the 2025 Texans and for 9 straight weeks they’ve inflicted that will on their opponents, including wins over the Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Chargers – all current playoff teams.
Houston Texans – 29
Pittsburgh Steelers – 24
Conventional wisdom has this as a low scoring affair, but the playoffs tend to get, well, wild. Houston will jump out to a big lead, Mike Tomlin, possibly coaching for his job, throws the kitchen sink at the Texans D, but in the end, the H-Town will to win takes it.
Either way, expect a great game between 2 stellar head coaches. Possibly something of a passing-of-the-torch…
