With the conference tournament just mere hours away, many eyes and ears will be focused on Mesa, Ari. to see who will be the victor of the 2026 baseball season – including all of us here at Mountain West Connection. Despite many fans being willing to argue why their favorite program will hoist the trophy come Saturday, there are (at least in my mind) clear cut favorites to win the tournament, dark horses that could pull off the upset if things fall their way and those who will most likely not make
it past the play in games. And what better way to showcase this than a current day classic: a tier list.
So, having set the stage, here’s my tier list of teams contending for the Mountain West Conference baseball championship.
The Favorites
San Diego State (No. 1 seed; 33-22, 16-8)
Oh wow, the No. 1 seed of the tournament is the highest favorite to win it all. Who could’ve guessed that?
But in all seriousness, it would be a surprise to see anyone but San Diego State winning the conference tournament this year. After just squeaking into the tournament last year with a 14-16 conference record and going 20-39 overall, the Aztecs were bounced by UNLV in the play-in round. To go from that result to not only winning the regular season one year later, but to do so BEFORE the last weekend of the season is an astounding turnaround that, while it does burn since the Aztecs are leaving in just a month and a half, does deserve praise.
The Aztecs’ were just simply better this year, both at the end and in general. They consistently stayed around the top of the conference in team batting average and ERA during conference play, which they finished in fourth (.315) and first (5.06) respectively. Their biggest advantage is the pitching, which has systematically tore down high profile hitting teams like Air Force, Nevada and New Mexico. Not to mention, San Diego State also contended and won a couple games against amazing ranked teams like No. 1 UCLA and No. 25 USC thanks to their pitching as well, which boasts a great 4.87 overall team ERA. This tournament is SDSU’s to lose.
Washington State (No. 2 seed; 27-25, 15-9)
Yeah, these guys have definitely shocked the Mountain West world with their performance this year, especially after their less than stellar start to the year. Washington State had one of the biggest revivals in college baseball from year to year, going from the literal bottom spot in the conference last year to sitting just one game off from getting a share of the conference regular season title. From 11-19 to 15-9 (there were two less series played this year), Wazzu gave their fans a much needed spring boost after last season, and in their last year being a guest member of the conference.
Statistically speaking, Washington State had to dig out of a mixed start to conference play after losing two of their first three series. However, after going 1-2 against Nevada in April, the Cougars did not lose another Mountain West series for the rest of the year, winning at least two games per weekend. One of the biggest reasons for this streak was their pitching staff, which boasts the second best team ERA in the conference with a 5.09, right behind SDSU. Even when the program was near the bottom in terms of hitting, which has been better as of late – now sitting fourth with a .315 team batting average, its pitching came in clutch. That will most likely be the deciding factor for Washington State, either pushing the program to the conference tournament or being its downfall if stunned.
Dark Horses
Air Force (No. 3 seed; 25-26, 15-9)
Very similar to San Diego State and Washington State, Air Force shocked several members of the Mountain West community (including myself) when they burst onto the scene in conference play. Back-to-back series wins against UNLV and Nevada started off an impressive year that pulled the Falcons from just missing the final spot in Mesa, Ari. last year to tying for the second seed this year, which included stints where they were atop the conference as well.
Despite joining SDSU and Wazzu in taking the top three seeds, the Falcons’ biggest strength is the exact opposite of their foes: hitting. Air Force held one of the best team batting averages throughout conference play, finishing second with a .326, only trailing Nevada. The program’s bats were so hot to start conference play that they put up 91 runs in six games, a trend that resulted in it scoring 244 runs against Mountain West opponents. Air Force’s pitching has always been its Achilles’ heel this season, which is why the program is a dark horse rather than a favorite. If they can keep the pitching at least somewhat clean while tapping into their batting potential, then we could see the Falcons getting an upset or two on their way to championship Saturday. If not, then they will most likely be either a play-in exit or the first team out of the loser’s bracket.
New Mexico (No. 5 seed; 28-22-1, 12-11-1)
It’s crazy to think about the rollercoaster that the Lobos went on this season. Even though they had a very weak strength of schedule compared to the rest of the conference to start the season, New Mexico began the 2026 slate with a 12 game winning streak, receiving national praise from media outlets. But, after getting their first loss against in-state rival New Mexico State, the Lobos lost six of their next eight games, evening out their overall record while getting off on the wrong foot in conference play. From there, it was a mixed year, finishing with a 28-22-1 overall and 12-11-1 conference record, both of which are lower than the 2025 campaign.
New Mexico would be higher in our eyes if it wasn’t for the fact that the program’s biggest strength, its performance in the batter’s box, didn’t go down in conference play. The Lobos have the third best overall team batting average in the conference with a .304, but that standing drops down to .284 (seventh) in just conference games. Their pitching has been better as of late, but they still have a 6.88 team ERA in Mountain West play, putting them at fourth in that category. Unless they are able to flip the switch on to how they hit in the beginning of the season, then New Mexico will be scary for any team that plays them. But that’s been basically a coin flip as of late, which can and will ruin the Lobos’ playoff run if it lands on tails.
Most Likely First Round Exits
Nevada (No. 4 seed; 24-26, 13-11)
After a pretty decent campaign throughout conference play, it is crazy to believe that Nevada could be a first round exit. The Wolf Pack won three of their first four conference series in the first half of Mountain West play, with their only weekend loss being at the hands of Air Force in an explosive series where Nevada took one game, but lost the final two. However, since their win in the Silver State Series against UNLV on April 26, the Wolf Pack has won one game, playing 10 in the span. They did play and got swept by then No. 18, now No. 25 USC and conference leader San Diego State in that time, but losing a series against GCU is not ideal before the big tournament.
Nevada has adopted the same mantra that Air Force has: Really great hitting, but not so great pitching. They lead the conference in team batting average (.331) while plating the third most runs in the conference (192), a feat that should not be ignored. However, after a decent run against Fresno State in mid-March, Nevada stayed either in the middle or near the bottom of the team ERA figures in conference play. The program enters the tournament dead in the middle at fifth with a 7.05 team ERA, which can be exploited by a team with great bats. The big thing keeping the Pack down here is their recent games, but if they can shake off the rust and get back to winning ways, then we could see a Cinderella run from the boys in blue.
UNLV (No. 6 seed; 30-24, 11-13)
UNLV was with New Mexico as one of the best teams during the non-conference beginning of the season, going 13-5 in that span while also facing some weaker competition that found a way to win a game or two. Then there was the first series of the season against Air Force, a series thought to be a sure win for the Rebels. They were swept by the Falcons, putting UNLV in team ERA hell after giving up 49 runs in their first three conference games. UNLV was able to somewhat bounce back, putting themselves in charge of their own destiny going into the final week of conference play against San Diego State. And, with two upset wins, the Runnin’ Rebels got the final conference tournament seed.
As much as the program has shown they have grit, especially in hitting, the Rebels need to get their pitching in line if they want a chance of avenging the sweep from Air Force later today, let alone advance further. They have had times where they were able to do so, such as their sole win against Washington State on April 18 and most recently against San Diego State in their first win of the series on May 15. While the numbers say they most likely won’t, as UNLV gave up more than five runs in 37 of its 54 games this year (68.5 percent), if they are able to hone in on the mound and keep their hitting prowess going, don’t be surprised to see UNLV near or in the conference championship.
Ultimately, these are all just predictions, and I hope the non-favorites shake things up. That’s what makes college sports so fun, you can only try to predict a winner in things like a conference tournament. So comment down below who you think will add some hardware to their collection after Saturday.
