The New York Giants open the season on Sunday Night Football at MetLife Stadium against Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys are favored by three points, and the Over/Under is set at 48.5 points. The start of the 2026 NFL season is here!
Prescott and Dallas have controlled the Giants for the better half of a decade; Prescott is 14-3 against the Giants with 4,346 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, just nine interceptions, and an impressive 101.5 passer rating. Dallas had a 13-game winning streak
over the Giants before their Week 18 loss last season (34-17) where Prescott and the Dallas’ starters played just the first half.
However, John Harbaugh and his distinguished résumé are looking to change the fortunes of the Giants, and they’ll have an excellent opportunity to do so in Week 1, with the entire NFL world watching. Both Dallas and New York fired their defensive coordinators and added key defensive personnel, which should make for some physical football.
Dennard Wilson and the Giants defense should have their work cut out for them, even with the injury to Dallas’ starting offensive lineman, Tyler Smith, who underwent thumb surgery on Tuesday and is expected to miss four-to-six weeks. The injury places T.J. Bass as the starter next to Tyler Guyton (LT) and center Cooper Beebe.
The matchup
Smith’s injury is a tough loss for Dallas, but it presents an excellent opportunity for Wilson and the Giants’ defense to manipulate and attack the Cowboys’ protection while weakening a rushing attack led by the newly paid Javonte Williams, who signed a three-year, $24 million deal during the offseason. The loss of Dexter Lawrence is good news for Dallas, but competent veteran depth like D.J. Reader and Shelby Harris is no slouch.
Brian Schottenheimer will likely still attempt to establish the run on the road; Dallas averaged 4.8 yards per carry in their two matchups against New York last season, with a total of 58 carries. New York MUST prove able to stop the run on early downs, which will force the Cowboys into longer third-down situations, where we can see Wilson dive into his bag of tricks.
I expect to see manipulation from Wilson in passing situations — similar to what we saw under Wink Martindale: wasted blockers, unorthodox pressure via simulated/creepers, and a lot of slanting/twists up front. The middle of the field upgrades with Tremaine Edmunds and Arvell Reese provide tighter windows against the Cowboys’ efficient quick game, which could lead to trap situations with robber coverage from Jevon Holland, Tyler Nubin, or Ar’Darius Washington.
Dallas will likely try to quell the potential pressure with play-action bootlegs and easy quick-game options to the flat of 3×1 sets, avoiding the middle of the field early except off back-side reads. I expect a heavy dose of CeeDee Lamb in the quick game, and there will be multiple shots to George Pickens in one-on-one situations against any of the Giants’ cornerbacks.
Easing the Cowboys’ offensive line into comfort and slowing down the rush of Abdul Carter, Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and the rest of the Giants can be done by metriculating the ball downfield and putting points on the board; this will be more easily achieved if Dallas can be efficient and successful on early downs.
The Giants must be sound in their gap responsibilities against the run, and fast to tackle off the quick-game passing attack — no yards after the catch! Also, of course, tight in their match-principles against Lamb and Pickens.
As the game wears on in zone coverage, deeper depth over the middle of the field to eliminate post/dig routes from the dynamic receiving duo. New York must be unpredictable with their pressure decisions, because Prescott is a mastermind at diagnosing and finding answers, but the Giants should incorporate the second level into their four-man pressure packages, specifically targeting Bass.
Schottenheimer has the advantage of stressing the Giants’ defense by aligning Lamb and Pickens in a variety of different locations, which will either create mismatches or dictate certain coverages for Wilson and the Giants. The discipline of the cornerback room will be crucial in this matchup.
Final thoughts
New York does have a fighter’s chance, and they’re only three-point home dogs against a Cowboys team that has dominated them in recent memory. The Giants can win this football game if they slow down Javonte Williams and win some of their one-on-one matchups on the outside.
New York needs to win up front in obvious passing situations, and harassing Dak Prescott is an easy — yet difficult to achieve — way to earn a divisional win in John Harbaugh’s first regular-season game as Giants’ coach. Winning will be no cakewalk, but we’ll learn a lot about the Harbaugh-led Giants in Week 1 against the Cowboys.
