Riding a two-game winning streak, the Detroit Lions have a massive home-field opportunity to knock the NFL’s last remaining undefeated team off its warship throne, move within striking distance of first place in the NFC North, and exact revenge for last year’s two defeats to the Vikings, both highly uncharacteristic of the team’s identity under Dan Campbell. Prior to last season, Campbell had won five straight games against Kevin O’Connell, including four in a row with Brian Flores as defensive coordinator.
The Lions’ quest to regain the throne of the North will ride on the shoulders of their All-Pro-caliber backfield duo of Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs, and an offense facing a Vikings defense under Flores that is off to a historically lethal start, pillaging opponents on its way to a 6-0 record (11 wins straight dating back to last season).
With the stakes incredibly high for Halloween weekend, this week’s preview dives into the cranium of Detroit’s Megamind, Drew Petzing, as he squares off against not just Flores but his former quarterback, Kyler Murray. We’ll examine how the Lions’ offense can keep the monsters from underneath their bed.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are sourced from NFL Pro, FTN Fantasy, Pro Football Reference, SumerSports, or Pro Football Focus.
The Trojan Norse
The Minnesota Vikings’ pass defense, with its 70.0%+ blitz rate, has been nightmare fuel for opposing quarterbacks. They lead the league in EPA/dropback allowed (-0.323), success rate allowed (38.2%), sack rate (10.1%), and pressure rate (38.6%).
The Vikings’ unpredictable, overwhelming, exotic blitzes have tricked offenses so thoroughly that teams are frightened to run play-action passes, worried that quarterbacks momentarily turning their backs to the defense to sell the run fake could hinder their processing and lead to immediate negative plays.
Teams are averaging only a 19.3% play-action pass rate against Minnesota (31st), totaling just 40 such dropbacks. The Packers had 10 play-action dropbacks in Week 1 against the Vikings, and no offense has exceeded that total in a game since. The Saints and Colts combined for only six play-action dropbacks over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the Lions’ offense ranks fourth this season with a 33.3% play-action pass rate and has recorded at least 11 such dropbacks in every game.
Against play-action passes this season, the Vikings’ defense is allowing 7.9 yards per attempt (19th), +0.003 EPA/dropback (12th), a 48.3% success rate (11th), and a staggering 13.8% explosive pass rate (27th). The inherent risk of turning your back to Minnesota’s defense and becoming the Headless Hurler is still real, as the Vikings have recorded a 16.2% sack rate (1st) and 48.6% pressure rate (1st) against play-action dropbacks.
The Vikings haven’t quite been tested against play action this season, with their matchup against the Bears coming in a monsoon, hardly a fair test of their passing attack. They’ll also face the Bills next week, an offense with the league’s second-highest play-action rate. While Minnesota remains formidable against play action, particularly with its ability to generate pressure and sacks, its defense ranks outside the top 10 in several metrics. It hasn’t been nearly as historically dominant against play action as it has against the run and on traditional dropbacks.
As Petzing illuminated last week, and as Lions fans have witnessed for years, Jared Goff is a different breed of beast as a precision processor when it comes to play-action passing. Detroit’s offensive line is also above average in pass protection, with room to improve as its younger players develop and the heady Cade Mays continues acclimating at the pivot. Now it’s a matter of proving they aren’t afraid of the dark when facing Minnesota’s pressure packages and are willing to challenge the Vikings with the play-action passing game that has been a staple of Detroit’s offense.
The Devil’s in the Dropback
Continuing on the topic of counterpunches to the Vikings flooding pass-rush lanes with second-level defenders such as Eric Wilson, Blake Cashman, the immortal Harrison Smith, and Josh Metellus. There’s another potential wrinkle for Detroit’s offense. It’s not often the Vikings are forced to defend straight dropbacks from under center. No team really is in this era of the NFL, but the Lions could be equipped to do it.
The Lions are averaging only 1.8 such dropbacks per game this season, but Jared Goff has completed 6-of-9 passes (66.7% completion percentage, 6th) for 84 yards (9.3 yards per attempt, 3rd) and two touchdowns (t-2nd). Detroit also ranks in the top 10 in success rate and explosive pass rate on under-center straight dropbacks, while its 4.7 yards after catch per attempt ranks fourth. They do need to be careful, however, as they’ve allowed a 40.0% quarterback pressure rate (7th) and one sack on these plays.
Luckily, straight dropbacks from under center have helped disarm the Vikings a bit. Flores’ furious, fully fanged forces have faced 15 under-center, non-play-action dropbacks this season (10th), allowing opponents to complete 9-of-14 passes (64.3% completion percentage, 6th) for 132 yards (9.4 yards per attempt)—nearly a first down per pass attempt, albeit on a small sample size! Minnesota also ranks in the bottom 10 in success rate and explosive pass rate allowed on these plays. Perhaps most surprisingly, they’ve generated pressure on just 13.3% of those dropbacks (t-27th).
The real treat is that the Vikings’ defense is allowing a league-worst 6.4 yards after catch per attempt on such passes. Perhaps all those aggressive, mugged-up looks at the line of scrimmage are proving hazardous, with defenders scrambling to get into coverage position after the snap and missing tackles.
This preview is about finding the small levers the Lions’ offense can pull against the most dangerous defense in the league. The Vikings’ pass defense feels inevitable. Stay on the field long enough, and they’ll get you. They’ll force you into mistakes.
Just like with play-action passes, straight dropbacks from under center offer a small avenue to exploit Minnesota’s aggression, get its defenders on their heels, and produce chunk plays. It’s an opportunity to move downfield quickly, catch Flores’ defense with its pants down, and get the ball into the hands of Detroit’s best playmakers with room to operate.
Ragnarök Meets Rah
Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown can be a ghoul to opposing defenses. It’s part of why he’s a three-time consecutive All-Pro, and his hands, toughness, and consistency have helped him slay the Vikings in the past.
Over his last six games against the Vikings, St. Brown has averaged 10.8 targets, 8.3 receptions, 100.7 receiving yards, 0.5 touchdowns, and 5.1 first downs per game. That production is more menacingly consistent than Michael Myers terrorizing Haddonfield, Illinois. And as much as everyone loves Dr. Loomis, Flores might as well be playing his role, desperately trying and repeatedly failing to contain the Michael Myers of Detroit’s offense.
Against the blitz this season, St. Brown has recorded 25 targets, 16 receptions, 204 receiving yards, three touchdowns, and 70 yards after catch. All five rank in the top 10 among wide receivers against the blitz. He’s been a ball magnet for Jared Goff when defenses bring extra rushers.
Last season, St. Brown was targeted 61 times against the blitz, hauling in 39 receptions (2nd) for 593 receiving yards (2nd), four touchdowns, and 329 yards after catch (1st). The Sun God has been Detroit’s secret weapon against the blitzkrieg.
As a secondary sidekick, while Sam LaPorta hasn’t experienced the same sustained success against the Vikings, he did record eight targets, six receptions, 97 receiving yards (16.2 yards per reception), one touchdown, and four first downs in his lone game against them last year. More importantly, LaPorta is eating blitzing defenses alive this season.
Against the blitz, LaPorta has recorded 14 targets, 11 receptions, 169 receiving yards (2nd among TEs), two touchdowns, and 92 yards after catch (4th among TEs). His 15.1 total receiving EPA ranks second among tight ends and fifth among all players.
Between St. Brown and LaPorta, Goff has a pair of boogeymen capable of giving Flores’ defense a taste of its own nightmare fuel.
This is my Boomstick
You can’t run and you can’t hide from the Vikings’ defense when you’re trying to run from under center, as Minnesota leads the NFL in EPA/rush allowed (-0.26) and rushing success rate allowed (27.8%), among a litany of other metrics in this category.
However, they’ve gotten their teeth kicked in against 34 shotgun runs this season:
- 6.35 yards per carry (31st)
- +0.24 EPA/rush (30th)
- 58.8% rushing success rate allowed
- 1.56 yards before contact per carry (17th)
- 4.79 yards after contact per carry (32nd)
- 11.1% stuff rate (28th)
- 11.8% explosive run rate (17th)
The stats are so stark that they’re almost unrecognizable as belonging to the same Vikings defense.
On shotgun runs this season, Jahmyr Gibbs has rushed 17 times for 89 yards (5.24 yards per carry) and an impressive 2.41 yards before contact per rush. He’s also been one of the most effective running backs on man-scheme runs from shotgun, with seven carries for 49 yards (7.0 yards per carry) and a league-leading 3.57 yards before contact per attempt. He’s recorded three runs of 10-plus yards (1st) and forced two missed tackles on those attempts.
It’s a small sample size, but it’s yet another chainsaw for Drew Petzing and the Lions’ offense to wield Flores’ way. Get Gibbs in shotgun looks, let his offensive line pulverize an unprepared defensive front, and let Gibbs do the rest.
Night of The Living Linemen
While on the topic of those physically imposing offensive linemen up front, Detroit’s unit still has plenty of imperfections, but like Frankenstein’s monster, it’s been pieced together and brought back to life. It’s important to remind Lions fans just how far this group has come from last year’s makeshift offensive line, particularly the units tasked with protecting Jared Goff and opening up escape routes for Jahmyr Gibbs against the Vikings’ defense.
Lions Offensive Line — 2025 Weeks 9, 17 vs. Minnesota (snaps played)
- Tate Ratledge — 123
- Penei Sewell — 122
- Christian Mahogany — 121
- Dan Skipper — 78
- Kingsley Eguakun — 64
- Graham Glasgow — 64
- Taylor Decker — 54
- Kayode Awosika — 18
The uncertainty and inexperience up front last season was a real issue and played right into the Vikings’ hands. Week 8 at Ford Field should provide more fertile ground for Detroit’s offense, with Sewell, Mahogany, Mays, Ratledge, and Blake Miller forming a more developed and improved unit, better equipped to handle Flores’ blitzes and keep the likes of Dallas Turner, Jalen Redmond, and Andrew Van Ginkel from massacring Detroit’s backfield.
