Major League Baseball is different every year. Some years there are multiple juggernaut teams. Some years there are multiple 100-loss teams. Some years, there are neither. Some years one or the other. It’s impossible to predict or time it out, so all MLB teams can do is try to put their best team forward and hope that it’s good enough to make it to the playoffs.
This year is one of the weirdest seasons in recent memory, because the American League is just going through it right now. We’re more than
a week into June, and not a single AL team is on pace for 100 wins. The closest is the Tampa Bay Rays, who are on pace for 97. Now, we do have a team on pace for 100 losses—the Los Angeles Angels. Meanwhile, there are only five AL teams with a winning record, and only five AL teams with a positive run differential.
How’d this happen? Well, the National League is slurping up all the victories; that’s at least part of the story. At the moment, three NL teams are on pace for 102 or more victories, with the Braves on a stunning 110-win pace. Mostly, the AL just has bad teams, though.
But you might have noticed when I said that there are only five AL teams with winning records that that is one fewer than the total number of playoff spots remaining. Yes, right now the Texas Rangers are 32-33 and have the final Wild Card spot.
The natural question is…could the terrible American League be the Royals’ saving grace? Fangraphs seems to think there’s a chance!
Honestly, a one-in-ten shot feels…right? Sure, the Royals haven’t played well, which is primarily evidence that the team isn’t as talented as other teams in the league. But, like, if you prowl the Reddit threads and other SB Nation blogs, you’ll quickly find that just about nobody is having a good time. There are a lot of flawed American League teams out there. For the Royals to sneak into the playoffs with 82 wins is within the realm of possibility here.
We’ll know either way soon. The problem is mainly the traffic between Kansas City and a Wild Card spot at this point, but the Royals are about to open a six-game homestand against the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers, whose route to the playoffs also goes through the Wild Card. After that, the Royals will have six games against the Washington Nationals and St. Louis Cardinals, who have a combined run differential of +3. Going 8-4 over those 12 games would put the team at 35-43, which is a bad-but-not-terrible record and would probably bring them within five games of that third Wild Card spot—maybe even closer; I mean, they’re 5.5 games away right now.
I still think the likeliest course of action at this point is that the Royals rally somewhat but only end up with a 74-88 record or something, which is just not gonna cut it. But we still haven’t seen the yearly Bobby Witt Jr. Goes Nuclear show. The bullpen is not going to be the worst bullpen in the league for the rest of the year. You can probably expect like five guys on offense to have better second halves. And heck, even the Guardians don’t look all that secure at the top of the Central by the quality of their play.
It is frustrating that the Royals aren’t waltzing away with the division crown. Still, the AL being so bad provides some hope. Maybe the best case result for this team would be the 2013 Royals, who were nine games under .500 on June 4 and ended up with 86 wins. While this team has further to go to get to .500, they also probably won’t have to get to 86 wins to get a playoff berth.
Ultimately, it comes down to playing good baseball. Until the 2026 Royals can sustain good play for a few weeks, skepticism is warranted. It’s just more fun to hope for and root for a team when there’s a shot, and hey, the rest of the AL isn’t doing their jobs, either.
