With a triple bye confirmed in the Big Ten Tournament, Illinois will play the winner of the Wisconsin/Washington game in its first matchup on Friday. Securing the triple bye is a major advantage in a tournament where surviving four games in four days can quickly wear teams down. Regardless, they’ll still have to go through a gauntlet to win the championship this year.
We know what kind of team Illinois is. They’re the most efficient offensive team in the country, slow and methodical in the half-court.
They rebound and create second chances in abundance due to their overwhelming size and physicality. However, the defensive side oftentimes leaves a lot to be desired.
If the bracket plays out as projected, Illinois’ road to the Big Ten Tournament championship game would most likely require beating Wisconsin and then Michigan thereafter. If they were to beat those contenders, the likes of Michigan State, Nebraska, and others on that side of the bracket would be waiting for Illinois in the championship game.
It’s hard to predict who Illinois may face if they do end up making the Big Ten Tournament Championship. However, more likely than not, the Fighting Illini will have to face Wisconsin first, and if they win that game, an unstoppable Michigan team would be waiting in the wings.
Let’s see what Illinois will have to do to beat them.
Wisconsin
At first glance, the analytics for both Illinois and Wisconsin reflect a very similar playing style. Both teams rely heavily on threes and are highly efficient on offense. But when you dig deeper into the numbers, the differences become clearer.
What Wisconsin Does Well
Three-Point Shooting Volume
Wisconsin launches 3s at one of the highest rates in the country, ranking 6th nationally in three-point attempts. Illinois shoots a similar volume, but Wisconsin converts at a slightly higher rate (Wisconsin: 36.3 3P% vs. Illinois: 34.9 3P%).
This means Illinois’ perimeter defense, specifically looking at Kylan Boswell and Keaton Wagler, will have to be sharp as Wisconsin is comfortable living behind the arc.
Free Throw Shooting
Wisconsin is excellent at the line (much like Illinois), shooting 78.2% on the year. In close tournament games, that becomes especially dangerous because it allows them to close games down the stretch.
Taking Care of the Ball
In the 99% percentile (as is Illinois) of D-1 teams for turnover %, turnovers are not a big part of Wisconsin’s offense. They value possessions and rarely beat themselves with careless mistakes.
Where Wisconsin Struggles
Interior Scoring
Wisconsin doesn’t generate much offense from its bigs. Most of their scoring comes from their tremendous guards, Nick Boyd and John Blackwell, who are averaging a combined 38 PPG.
Defensive Impact
They are not an elite defensive team. They do not block well or force turnovers effectively. They allow a higher than average FG% in the paint, midrange 2’s, and a significantly higher than average % from in the corners (43.6%)
Rebounding
Wisconsin is closer to average on the glass. They can grab defensive rebounds, but are not as skilled on the offensive glass at 10.4 ORebs/Game compared to Illinois’ 13.3 ORebs/Game
How Illinois Can Win
Control the Glass
Rebounding, as is most of the time with Illinois, is the clearest path to victory.
In the previous matchup between these teams, an OT loss in Champaign a few weeks ago, Wisconsin held its own on the boards and grabbed five more offensive rebounds than Illinois. That can’t happen again if Illinois wants to control the game.
Illinois needs to:
- Win the rebounding battle
- Generate extra possessions on the offensive glass
Contain Wisconsin’s Guards
As I mentioned previously, most of Wisconsin’s scoring comes from its guards, Nick Boyd and John Blackwell. If Illinois’ guards are able to make life difficult for them, Wisconsin’s offense becomes much easier to contain.
Play Well Defensively
We know Wisconsin and Illinois can both score the basketball. The difference will be on the defensive side. They have, statistically, the better defense, and it will be the big equalizer in this matchup.
Michigan
If Illinois advances, its most likely opponent is Michigan, which has been one of the most complete teams this season. Michigan presents a very different problem from Wisconsin.
What Michigan Does Well
Michigan is simply elite on both ends of the floor. Dusty May has created a juggernaut this year, who currently has the best odds of winning the championship via most sportsbooks.
Offense
Michigan ranks among the best scoring teams in the country. Their key strengths include:
- Top-10 nationally in points per game (88.4 PPG)
- 51% team field goal percentage (6th in the nation)
- Strong scoring in the paint, shooting 10% higher than average around the rim, and in the paint
- Excellent ball movement (6th nationally in APG: 18.8)
Rebounding
Michigan’s defensive rebounding numbers are very similar to Illinois’ (Illinois: 73.1 DReb% vs. Michigan 71.9 DReb%). However, Illinois does hold a slight advantage on the offensive glass. Having more than a 3% edge compared to the Wolverines in OReb%.
Where Michigan Is Vulnerable
Turnovers
Michigan can be sloppy with the ball at times. To the tune of 12.2 turnovers/game. They’re not always careful with possessions, which opens opportunities for opponents to generate extra chances.
Above-the-Break Three Defense
Michigan allows a decent number of above-the-break 3s. While they defend them reasonably well, the opportunities are still there for Illinois, which happens to shoot 10% more above-the-break threes than league average.
How Illinois Can Beat Michigan
Must Make their threes That Michigan Gives Up
Michigan’s defense will allow perimeter shots, and Illinois shoots a lot of them.
Crash the Offensive Glass
Because Michigan is so efficient offensively, Illinois needs to maximize every possession.
In their previous matchup, Illinois was outrebounded by Michigan, and it was evident. That can’t happen again.
Final Thoughts
Winning the Big Ten Tournament is never easy. Even with a triple bye, Illinois would likely need to beat two of the conference’s better teams just to reach the championship game.
Wisconsin would test Illinois’ perimeter defense and rebounding discipline. Michigan would test nearly everything.
But if Illinois can win the rebounding battle, convert open threes, and maximize possessions, the path to the Big Ten Tournament championship is absolutely there. Now it just comes down to executing it.
