The Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns helped each other out last week. Both in upsets, they took down teams that will help the other chase a division title. The Browns took down the undefeated Green Bay Packers, while the Lions beat up the reigning AFC North champions, the Baltimore Ravens.
Now, the two face off in a game that could be a lot more competitive than the 10-point Vegas line suggests. Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup with our On Paper statistical breakdown, preview, and game prediction.
Note: We are leaving 2024 data behind starting now. Additionally, a reminder that DVOA statistics are still not opponent-adjusted, so I am going to lean a little more on my charts than DVOA this week.
Lions pass offense (5th in DVOA) vs. Browns pass defense (18th)
It appears the Lions’ passing attack is picking up where it left off last season. Even Week 1’s disappointing performance now looks a little better in the proper context of Green Bay’s strong start defensively. As he has for the past 2.5 seasons, Jared Goff is near the top of the league in just about every statistical measure:
- 8.0 Y/A (fifth)
- 120.2 passer rating (second)
- 81.7 QBR (third)
- 0.387 dropback EPA (second)
- 54.8 dropback success rate (third)
What has helped Goff out tremendously is Detroit’s impressive pass protection, particularly in the past two weeks. The Lions have not given up a sack in the past two games, they currently have PFF’s third-highest pass blocking grade (70.7), and they rank 11th in ESPN’s pass block win rate (68%).
When not pressured, Jared Goff ranks third in the NFL in EPA/dropback, third in passer rating, and first in completion percentage over expected. When pressured, those rankings drop to 10th, 11th, and… well, first.
The Browns’ defense will be a formidable challenge for the Lions this week. Thus far, they haven’t given up over 200 net passing yards in a single game, and look what they did to Jordan Love last week:
The Browns’ defense forces you to throw quick and short because of good coverage on the perimeter (seventh in PFF coverage grade), and an insane pass rush (first in sack percentage) that doesn’t require a lot of blitzing (13th in blitz rate).
It’s hard to get a full feeling for their pass defense because facing Lamar Jackson has skewed their overall numbers—making them look pretty average.
- 6.8 Y/A (18th)
- 106.0 passer rating (25th)
- 0.105 dropback EPA (17th)
- 46.0 dropback success rate (18th)
But we can’t use Jackson as an excuse for the Browns defense because Goff’s Lions are just as lethal of a passing attack. And what’s particularly relevant to this matchup is something Erik Schlitt pointed out in his Honolulu Blueprint:
Entering this week, the Lions are the second most efficient team when passing to the intermediate area of the field, while the Browns rank 27th in efficiency in defending this area, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats.
Player to watch: Myles Garrett. Yeah, I wasn’t going to go this full preview without mentioning him. Lined up almost exclusively over the left tackle, Garrett continues to be a huge problem for every opponent. Garrett sees the highest double team rate of any edge defender, yet he still has PFF’s highest pass rush grade (92.0), t-12th in pressures, and is second in PFF’s pass rush win percentage. Taylor Decker will have his hands full, but also keep an eye out on everyone else. Many of Detroit’s other offensive linemen will have to win one-on-ones with the extra attention Garrett will command.
Advantage: Lions +1.5. Because the Lions have been so excellent in pass protection as of late, and because they’ll be playing at home to help the line communicate, I think Detroit has a clear edge here. It’s not going to be easy, and Goff will have to be patient and take what the defense gives him, but he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the league at doing that. Avoiding turnovers will be key, so don’t expect a lot of risky throws from Goff this week.
Lions run offense (2nd) vs. Browns run defense (1st)
The Lions’ rushing attack is officially back after a terrible Week 1 performance. It’s still not entirely clear if we can completely throw out that opener due to communication issues and a lack of chemistry on the offensive line, but we’re headed in that direction after how dominant the Lions’ run game has been in the past two weeks. They’ve been so good on the ground that their season-long statistics are still outstanding despite the Week 1 dud.
Detroit ranks:
- Seventh in yards per carry (5.0)
- Seventh in rush EPA (0.041)
- Third in success rate (47.7%)
- Eighth in yards before contact per rush (2.8)
- 11th in yards after contact per rush (2.1)
We all know the damage Detroit’s running back duo can inflict, but a lot of credit goes to an offensive line that has turned things around in a hurry. Right now, the Lions rank third in PFF team run blocking grade (71.2)—although just 26th in ESPN’s run block win rate.
Regardless of whether the Lions are the best rushing attack the Browns have faced, Cleveland has absolutely demolished every run game they’ve faced so far. Most impressively, they held Lamar Jackson to two rushes for 13 yards and Derrick Henry to 23 yards on 11 rushes. Yes, the Lions were able to stop the Ravens run game, too, but not like that. No matter how you slice it, this Browns’ run defense has been top-two so far this year, and most of the time, they’re not second.
- 2.3 yards per carry allowed (first)
- -0.23 EPA/rush (second)
- -0.93 rush yards over expected per rush (first)
- 31.9% rush success rate (fourth)
- 2.71 adjusted line yards (first)
And while the Lions are always a threat to break out a long run (five rushes of 15+ yards, t-seventh), the Browns are the only team in the NFL that hasn’t given up a rush of 15 or more yards.
Player to watch: Grant Delpit. A big reason the Browns don’t give up big runs is because Delpit, their in-the-box safety, does an excellent job defending the run. Cleveland is not afraid to load the box, and Delpit ranks third in PFF run defense grade among all safeties (88.3) and leads the position in run stops (6).
Advantage: Draw. Yeah, I’m not picking sides here. It’s strength vs. strength. I can see this going either way. The most likely scenario is probably a modest day from Detroit’s rushing attack—somewhere in the 70-80 yards range.
Browns pass offense (31st) vs. Lions pass defense (23rd)
For as good as the Browns have been defensively, it’s been a disaster passing the ball on offense, and outside of the Packers, I’m not sure you can even argue they’ve gone up against good defenses.
There’s really nothing that’s working right now with the Browns’ passing attack. Joe Flacco ranks 30th of 31 qualifying QBs in EPA/dropback (-0.35), 31st in passer rating (65.9), 31st in yards per attempt (5.0), and 28th in air yards per attempt (6.2). He’s not getting any help from his unimpressive receiving corps, which is averaging just 3.0 yards per separation per target (29th).
And his pass protection is just as questionable. He’s facing the ninth-highest pressure rate (39.6%) per NFL Pro despite facing the lowest blitz percentage in the league (17.2%). The team ranks 29th in PFF pass blocking grade and 29th in ESPN’s pass block win rate.
In short, the entire operation is a mess. They could get some help this week with right tackle Jack Conklin trending towards potentially playing after missing the past two games, but there are more problems at hand than just their right tackle.
The Lions have plenty of room for improvement themselves when it comes to their pass defense. While it felt like they took a step forward last week against the Ravens—and they did, particularly with seven sacks—their coverage abilities are still their biggest weakness. PFF ranks them 20th in coverage grade (56.3), and the Lions have given up 11 plays of 20+ yards through the air, tied for sixth-most in the NFL.
As a team, here’s where they rank in some key stats:
- 8.6 Y/A (29th)
- 119.1 passer rating (30th)
- 0.220 dropback EPA (26th)
- 44.9% dropback success rate (13th)
The success rate continues to offer hope, as long as Detroit can start limiting the big plays allowed.
What also helps is their pass rush, which has seen some improvement as of late. While they rank dead last in ESPN pass rush win rate (which focuses on how quickly pressure comes), they actually rank 14th in PFF pass rush grade, ninth in NFL Pro’s pressure percentage (38.2%), and second in sack rate (10.8%). While the Lions aren’t getting pressure quickly, they are getting pressure.
Player to watch: Aidan Hutchinson. While Hutchinson’s overall stats (4 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 1 forced fumble) don’t jump out, he is still being a very disruptive player. PFF gives him an 82.8 pass rush grade (14th) and has credited him with 16 pressures (t-fifth). And for much of the game, he’ll likely be lined up opposite left tackle Cornelius Lucas, who has ceded the most pressures of any offensive tackle (19), per PFF.
Advantage: Lions +1. The Lions still have a lot to prove with their pass defense, but this is the week to prove it. The Browns don’t possess many elite receiving threats, they don’t pass protect well, and their quarterback—who is not a threat with his legs—is struggling to complete anything downfield. If Detroit struggles in this matchup, there are some big concerns ahead.
Browns run offense (16th) vs. Lions run defense (4th)
If there’s any hope offensively for the Browns, it’s in their recent running game. Their 2025 second-round pick, running back Quinshon Judkins, has been outstanding in the two games he’s played. He’s rushed for 155 yards on just 28 carries (5.5 YPC) and found the end zone once.
Although we’re dealing with a small sample size here, Judkins ranks second in rushing yards over expected per attempt (+2.0, behind only David Montgomery) and sixth in yards after contact per rush (4.3).
As for the offensive line, it’s a mixed bag. They rank 15th in ESPN’s run block win rate, 27th in PFF’s run blocking grade, and 19th in adjusted line yards. Let’s call their offensive line average, at best, at run blocking.
Overall, the team ranks:
- 21st in yards per carry (4.0)
- 10th in rush EPA (-0.004)
- 28th in success rate (32.8%)
Detroit’s run defense has mostly been strong this year, holding Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry to a combined 116 yards on 31 carries (3.7 YPC). That said, they were a bit leaky against D’Andre Swift, who had 12 carries for 63 yards.
Still, as a whole, the numbers are more good than bad. The Lions rank:
- 18th in yards per carry (4.2)
- Second in rush EPA (-0.289)
- Fourth in stuffed rate (22.5%)
- 17th in success rate (38.1%)
Player to watch: Jack Campbell. Quietly, the Lions’ third-year linebacker has racked up a 90.3 PFF run defense grade, the fifth highest mark among linebackers this year.
Advantage: Lions +1. Detroit has yet to be walked over in the run game, and they’ve essentially shut down two of the best backs in the league. I’m not fully sold on the unit yet because there have been too many explosives (10 rushes of 10+yards allowed, tied for 10th-most).
Last week’s prediction:
I picked the Ravens last week in a close one (34-31), moving On Paper to 1-2 overall, but 2-1 against the spread. Again, the Lions accomplished two of the three goals I outlined in order to flip the game in their favor:
I’ll be wrong about this game if:
- Detroit’s OL takes another step in running the ball
- The Lions’ secondary creates a couple of turnovers
- Detroit is actually able to bottle up Derrick Henry
With that, I have an increased confidence in Detroit’s run offense and defense moving forward.
We had a ton of good predictions from the Pride of Detroit community this week, but none were closer than Pick62022 and LRB57, who both predicted Lions 38, Ravens 31. Had the Ravens not (correctly) gone for two at the end of the game, you would’ve been our first perfect predictions of the 2025 season. Alas, enjoy this prize anyways.
Here are some spiked shoulder pads. Why spiked shoulder pads? Well, just in case a certain someone is considering being carried off Ford Field on players’ shoulders, particularly after being offered some bulletin board material. Prevent such humiliation with these spiked pads.
This week’s prediction:
The Lions come out with a modest +3.5 advantage and the edge in three of four matchups. That said, I don’t feel overly confident in any of the particular matchups that tip the scales in the Lions’ favor, so it would not surprise me at all if this is a close game.
That said, the Lions are the better team, and they should win this game. Here are the only ways I see Detroit losing this game:
- They turn the ball over at least twice
- The Lions are held to under 50 rushing yards
- They give up at least two explosive plays through the air
Otherwise, Detroit should be able to pull out a gritty win. Lions 24, Browns 13.
