There’s a tension between expectations and reality when it comes to high lottery picks.
The third overall pick? Perfect. We’ve got a superstar. The first five picks in every NBA draft are superstars. It’s
an unimpeachable fact.
Only, it’s highly peachable. It can be peached to no end. A lot of high lottery picks don’t survive past their rookie contract. Some manage to find a way as a bench player. So the recent development of Jabari Smith Jr. is encouraging.
Whether fans recognize it or not.
Rockets’ Jabari Smith Jr. is rounding into form
Let’s look at the surface numbers first.
Last season, Smith Jr. averaged 12.2 points and 7.0 rebounds per game while shooting 35.4% on 4.9 threes per game with a -0.7 Box Plus/Minus (BPM). Through five games in 2025-26, he’s averaging 15.0 points and 5.2 rebounds per game while shooting 36.7% on 6.0 triples, with a 0.5 BPM.
That’s progress. It’s also a five-game sample size (a caveat that comes in every article until we hit 20, PS). If it means anything, there has to be a why to go with the what.
There’s nothing especially telling in the stats. Smith Jr.’s Usage % has ticked slightly up, from 16.0% to 17.2%. That’s a nothingburger.
His shot profile may have hints. Smith Jr. is taking fewer shots between 10-16 feet (9.7% vs 14.5%) than he did last year. He’s hitting a higher percentage between 0-3 feet (72.7% vs 70.4%). Beyond the uptick in three-point efficiency, Smith Jr. is cutting out some of his midrange attempts and increasing his efficiency around the rim. There’s a why.
Would it be too greedy to ask for a how?
Rockets’ Jabari Smith Jr. is developing physically
Having the body of a man seems to be helping.
Smith Jr. is notably bigger and stronger. His notoriously non-existent handle his scarcely improved, but at 6’11”, he never needed much of a handle. If he’s able to muscle his way from the mid-range to the cup, few players can successfully contest him once he gets there.
If he’s a threat to finish at the rim, it changes the way teams guard him. Smith Jr. has more space when he launches triples now, because defenses are recognizing that he’s become something of a three-level scorer.
The space afforded by Kevin Durant can’t be underestimated either. The Rockets’ spacing is still awkward at times. Amen Thompson is still driving into a dunker’s spot that’s occupied by Steven Adams (and his defender) only to fumble a pass to Alperen Sengun, who’s (barely) in high post position.
Still, it’s better.
So is Smith Jr. He may never live up to the platonic ideal of a third overall pick that many fans hold, and that’s OK. It should be noted that Smith Jr.’s offseason extension doesn’t qualify as “platonic ideal of a third overall pick” money either. The way things are going, it may be one of the best value contracts in the league before long. The most important fact is that Smith Jr. is steering well clear of certified bust status:
Like it or not, that counts for something.
