The other day it was announced that the Nationals were promoting Jackson Kent to Triple-A. With this news happening, I wanted to talk about Kent because he is a fascinating and under-discussed prospect. You can argue that Kent is the Nats best healthy pitching prospect, though I would probably put him second behind Miguel Sime Jr.
Kent had a fantastic start to the season in Double-A. He posted a 2.35 ERA in 30.2 innings with 38 strikeouts to just 8 walks. The Nats 4th rounder from 2024 also showed off improved stuff. His fastball has gone from being a low 90’s offering to sitting more consistently in the 93-95 MPH range. This improved velocity has helped Kent dominate in AA.
However, the fastball is not Kent’s biggest weapon, and it never has been. Kent’s signature pitch is an absolutely gorgeous changeup. His changeup has over 10 MPH of velocity separation, but Kent still sells it with his arm action. It is truly a plus offering for him. Last season, the pitch generated a 51% whiff rate, and it has continued to be elite this year.
Fangraphs gave Kent’s changeup a 70 grade. That is elite stuff, but it makes sense when you watch the pitch. I actually found a 5 and a half minute video from one of his most recent starts. You get to see quite a few of his signature changeups, and his best ones are absolutely gorgeous. He has a natural feel for it and locates it very well.
Kent’s wonky delivery and elite changeup actually remind me a bit of Guardians rookie Parker Messick, who is having a lot of success this season. Both guys are stockier left handed pitchers with solid but not elite velocity. These guys rely on command and a wipeout changeup to succeed.
Another thing Jackson Kent does very well is get down the mound. He gets about 7 feet of extension, which is elite. That helps his fastball get on hitters quickly. This trait makes Kent similar to former Nats prospect Jake Bennett, who was a big extender with a good changeup. Bennett’s command is a little bit better, but Kent has an even better changeup than him.
I am interested to see how his mix works at the AAA level. He will be facing plenty of guys with big league experience. Will the changeup mesmerize them the same way it did to lower level hitters? I am also interested to see what his pitch shapes look like because we will get that with statcast. Kent’s breaking balls are seen as average at best. He has a curveball and a slider, but neither truly stand out.
This has certainly been a breakout year for Kent, but he did not come out of nowhere. Last season, Kent had a high 4.61 ERA in High-A and Double-A. However, his underlying metrics were strong. For the season, Kent had 132 strikeouts in 123 innings, while keeping the walks in check. He also had a 3.75 FIP and 3.30 xFIP.
Kent’s stuff has ticked up this season, but he is also seeing some positive regression. He pitched much better than his ERA last season. Now, with even better stuff, the results have been undeniable. That is why the Nats are pushing him to AAA. If he throws the ball well in AAA, Kent has a chance to make his MLB debut later this season.
Jackson Kent is an advanced arm with a deceptive look, good command and a wipeout changeup. In a farm system full of risers, Kent is a guy who has gone under the radar. However, with his promotion, he should not be going under the radar for much longer.
This is a guy we could see in the big leagues, and pretty soon. Kent is just 23 years old, but he is a very mature pitcher who has a clear path to big league success. He can use his funk, changeup and new found velocity to get outs in the big leagues.
In my opinion, Kent has the ceiling to be a 3 or 4 starter. One of the reasons the Nats may have traded Jake Bennett is that they knew Kent was a very similar profile. They did not have a guy like Luis Perales in the system, but Kent could do what Jake Bennett did, and maybe even more.
The Nats 2024 draft class looked rough last season, but there have been some good performances from the group this year. Seaver King and Jackson Kent have been the standouts. Both are now in AAA, and knocking on the door of the big leagues.
