This Sunday, the Cleveland Browns (5-4) take on the Houston Texans (3-5). Below, we analyze a few advantages, disadvantages, or general thoughts about the two teams before getting to our predictions for the game.
Time to Show Something Different
The start to the season for the Cleveland Browns was a feel-good story. Todd Monken in his first year as a head coach, all of the young players shining at times, and Deshaun Watson having five game-winning drives. And it was fun to harp on the incredible stat of all of those victories having game-winning drives,
but we all know that isn’t sustainable. If the Browns want to contend for the postseason the rest of the year, something has to change.
The penalties haven’t gone away.
The slow starts haven’t gone away.
Playing every winnable game down-to-the-wire hasn’t gone away.
The run game issues on both sides haven’t gone away.
I praised Todd Monken and Mike Rutenberg earlier this season for their ability to adapt and make adjustments. I don’t think that has stalled, I think what we’re seeing now are the true weaknesses of this team, and they aren’t marks of a playoff contender. Cleveland’s hopes seem to rest on taking advantage of their easy schedule, but they’ve blown their margin for error in that category too with losses to the Jets and Saints.
I think the coaching staff is trying to get it fixed each week, but so far they’ve mostly come up empty. That doesn’t mean the team can’t turn the corner in some of those areas, but the thing I keep saying now is, “this is the team’s four-game home stretch.” I don’t necessarily expect them to win all four games, which would put them at a ridiculous 7-0 at home, but on a game-by-game basis, we need to see this team pull of a dominant performance somewhere. Something to further bolster their confidence, further establish their identity, and to ride for the rest of the season.
The X-Factor
As a follow-up to the above, there is one X-factor who could, at any point, make a monumental difference to the team. Let’s get into it with some of our miscellaneous notes this week:
- That X-factor would be……….DE Jared Verse. It’s been a storyline all season — he was brought here, not to replicate what Myles Garrett did, but to be a damn-good alternative to him, at least when it comes to pressuring the quarterback. Overall, despite the run defense woes, the Browns’ defense has been fairly solid this season, and the sacks are coming from everywhere but the edge. If Cleveland’s defense is doing this good with Verse being a non-factor, or dare I say it, a liability, what is the upside to this unit if the switch finally flips for him?
- We’ve hated on Verse a lot, but this week, he finally admitted that he hasn’t played to the standard he wants, and that he’s talked to the team’s psychiatrist about it. I’m a firm believer in how the mental aspects of things can screw with your game. We see it most obviously with kickers all the time. Sometimes we see it with receivers and their drops. I thought Deshaun Watson had a mental block the past several years that he finally seems to have cleared. It’s possible it’s there with Verse. Verse says it’s not physical, so something has to explain the extreme dropoff of being one of the league’s best to one of the league’s worst performing players. Maybe this is a step to somewhat tackling whatever is getting in the way of him being the player he’s proven he can be. If he can deliver that against the Texans, maybe it’s the boost that Cleveland needs to put away a game.
- That presents us with the unique challenge of trying to figure out which Houston Texans team we’ll see. C.J. Stroud has been a bit of a disappointment the past few years, and last year, the team went on an incredible stretch to close out the year due to their defense. This season, I feel like the defense has been crap, and Stroud is lighting it up most weeks. But this defense should be better; they’ve often been plagued by giving up big plays in pass defense.
- Cleveland’s pass defense needs to be up to the challenge this week. Although some teams have used the run lately to combat the Browns, I feel like Houston won’t be so committed to the ground game.
- Deshaun Watson starting over Shedeur Sanders this week is probably the right call. As much as I enjoyed Sanders finally letting loose in the fourth quarter and overtime last week, many of those plays aren’t sustainable. When it was time to read-and-react in the first several quarters, things were too slow still, the operation was off, etc. The offense has had similar slow starts with Watson, of course, but the operation for the most part has been smooth with him.
- According to FanDuel, the Browns are 4.5 point underdogs against the Texans. The over/under is 40.5.
Quick Hitters
Offensive coordinator Travis Switzer talked about how the team has tried to work on ways to start faster offensively:
“Yeah, the first thing as a staff, we looked at everything that we’ve done early in games, and when we looked at it, it was like, man, we’ve kind of tried a little bit of everything as far as, hey, let’s maybe call some can plays early, or we’ve tried running it early. We’ve tried movement passes. So, we looked at that, and nothing really spiked out as far as, hey, this is the direction we should go there. And then we’ve also just stressed it to the guys, especially early in practice, like Wednesdays, the first period is always a tempo period, the first team period, so we’ve tried to stress it there. It’s like, okay, we’re going fast, but also, hey, we’re trying to start fast. That’s the point of this period here. And yeah, I can’t say that it’s been like one thing that jumped out to us. We just got to keep attacking it and try to stress it and just try to get better there.”
Defensive coordinator Mike Rutenberg was asked about Jared Verse’s admission that he’s seen the team psychiatrist to try to be a better pass rusher:
“I’m not going to discuss Jared Verse in terms of what he does off the field, but I’m really proud of Jared for his approach, for his attitude, the way he’s working with his teammates and our D-line coaching staff to help himself get to where he wants to go.”
Special teams coordinator Bryon Storer was asked about gunners when they run out of bounds (as Cleveland did last week):
“All right, so when you’re putting the ball, you’re putting it toward – usually you’re trying to punt it toward the boundary to shorten the field. And so, you have releases by the gunners toward the punt direction. So, you’d like for both your gunners to release the same direction. So, if you’re punting left, both guys release left, and one guy ends up into the boundary. Now, you can’t run out of bounds on your own. A lot of times those corners will force you into the white. And so now you have to, take a line to re-enter. You know, what happened on that play was, DT (Daniel Thomas) didn’t realize he had gotten in the white, and so we just had a discussion on the sideline and just said, ‘hey, if there’s any possibility that you could have gone out of bounds, all you got to do is just point to the ball, tell your teammates, you, you, you, and they touch it.’ So, it’s a big learning experience for us, and unfortunately, it cost us 30 yards of field position, so we had to learn the hard way. But I just don’t think that it’s possible to change what we do in terms of staying out of bounds. That’s just part of the deal.”
Here are predictions from multiple staff members at DBN:
Predictions
Chris Pokorny: “The Browns have played a lot of close games, and are 3-0 at home, so this four-game home stretch that they are beginning is vital for them to stay in the playoff race. The Browns’ pass defense has remained a strong suit, but offensively, they still have some consistency issues, with too many dry stretches of scoring. Of all the games the Browns have played this season, this is the one where I feel like I have no idea what to expect. C.J. Stroud seems to be playing at an unexpectedly high level, but the Browns’ pass defense has been solid. Will Houston commit to the run, which Cleveland hasn’t been able to stop for weeks? And while Houston’s defense has struggled compared to my expectations, the talent seems to still be there, so do they get back on track against their former quarterback who takes a lot of sacks?” Browns 24, Texans 21
Jared Mueller: “The Browns are 3-0 at home, are coming off two straight losses, and Deshaun Watson takes back over at quarterback after a one-week concussion-related hiatus. The Texans have not been that good this year but have regrouped a bit and could have a healthy defense on the road in Cleveland.
For some reason, Jared Verse’s admission of flaws is a confidence builder for me, despite Houston’s talented offense.” Browns 27, Texans 24
Thomas Moore: “I don’t even know what to make of this team anymore. They win when it seems like all hope is lost, but then lose to the likes of the Jets and the Saints. The Texans will present a challenge, especially with their pass rush, but it’s hard to know how good they are, either, because two of their three wins have come against the Titans and Chargers. The thought of the Browns going into the bye week on a three-game losing streak and having everyone bleat for the next two weeks about a quarterback change is too much to even consider.” Browns 17, Texans 14
Barry Shuck: “Before the season began, I believed that the Texans would be one of the four best teams in the AFC. I also choose the wrong women. And although Houston might not make the playoffs, they have won three of their last four games and scored 44 points last weekend. The Texans have a prolific passing attack and the Browns are ranked #13 against the pass, so that will be a good chess match. They can’t run the ball, but neither can the Browns. Cleveland is middle of the pack in their passing game while Houston is listed in the lower third defending the pass. So, maybe the Browns can air it out to Harold Fannin and either of their two rookie receivers. Defense, or lack of, will be the determining factor. Cleveland will need to find ways to finish drives. Thank goodness for a good kicker and punter.” Texans 27, Browns 20
Ezweav: “We’re definitely hitting the rough patch. It’s a little promising watching the A22 against the Saints and seeing so many wide open plays (mostly missed) but the Texans aren’t the Saints so it’ll probably be a tougher slog
Defense should hold their own but CJ Stroud is a real quarterback so I don’t love the matchup. We’ll probably be talking about how 5-5 still exceeds preseason expectations tomorrow afternoon.” Texans 23, Browns 19
Curtiss Brown: “This game will be about as close of a playoff type game as can be. Considering what’s at stake, it should be. The Houston Texans have been one of the bigger disappointments this season. As talented as the Texans defense is, they haven’t been nearly as dominant. The Texans defense isn’t really special in terms of scheme but the talent is there. The run defense is somewhat leaky and they are suspect to give up explosive plays in the passing game.
Houston’s offense is starting to click a bit. Quarterback CJ Stroud might force the Texans to back up the Brinks truck if he finds a way to keep up this play. Houston will be down a couple of key defensive players so the Browns must take advantage of it.
Depending on how Houston comes out this game could be close or it turns into a route. If Houston comes out flat and underestimates the Browns, this could be a close game for 4 quarters. Houston might be down a couple players and are prone to letdowns but I feel that their talent will overcome that against a Browns team that is continuing to find themselves. Wouldn’t surprise me if Cleveland stunned Houston but I dont see that happening.” Texans 30, Browns 24 (OT)
Who do you think will win, Browns fans? Let us know in the comments section below.
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