The Obvious Ones
Miami University
I think everyone saw this coming. The RedHawks are in despite their first-round exit in the MAC tournament to UMass, and the MAC has two teams in the field of 68. The main issue with that, though, is that one of them is headed to Dayton, and it’s not Akron.
Travis Steele’s squad is heading to UD Arena this week to take on an SMU team that has seen better days. The Mustangs lost their last four regular-season games heading into the ACC tournament before falling to Louisville in a four-point loss. Led
by two former mid-major standouts in Boopie Miller (Central Michigan) and Jaron Pierre Jr. (Jacksonville State), it’ll be interesting to see how the RedHawks face off against their first power-conference opponent of the season.
South Florida
Brian Hodgson’s team has all the makings of a power-conference team that is hungry to make a run in the Big Dance. Led by American Conference Player of the Year Izaiyah Nelson, the Bulls have the size and scoring ability to matchup with any team in the nation.
Meanwhile, you look at Louisville. This Cardinal team led by Pat Kelsey has had some peaks this season, most notably their 11-2 start to the season behind the scoring ability of Mikel Brown, who not sits questionable for the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Additionally, the biggest weakness of the season for the Cards has been the frontcourt, bit with Nelson holding it down in the paint, it’ll be tough for Kelsey’s team defending the interior, and if Wes Enis and Joseph Pinion can get it going from behind the arc, it’ll be a long night for Louisville.
On the other hand, the Bulls face one glaring issue that could affect their Tournament performance: depth. It will be a battle keeping their players on the court, especially in the seven-ish man lineup that Hodgson runs.
The Legitimate Cinderellas
High Point
It’s high time the Panthers won a tourney game, and they have the real chance of being the mid-major darling this year at the 12-seed. With only four losses on the year, Flynn Clayman’s squad looks about as legit as ever, having only one loss in the entirety of 2026, and none since January.
Additionally, they’ve got the firepower to do it. The Big South champions run a top-70 efficiency offense at breakneck pace while forcing opposing offenses to play slow and get to the rack. Led by Rob Martin and Terry Anderson, this squad has the size to compete, and with Owen Aquino holding down the middle, it’ll be vital for him to hold off the size of Badger big man Nolan Winter.
Akron
The other MAC team is on here for one reason: they are much better than that seed line portrays. The Zips head in the tournament looking like the best team in the conference (yes, even with Miami), and they proved that, cruising all the way to the championship game before winning a thriller over Toledo.
It’s amazing to see Tavari Johnson in the Big Dance. The four-year player for John Groce now gets to play in the biggest game of his life against a Texas Tech team that has seen better days. The loss of JT Toppin has been a death sentence to the Red Raiders’ title hopes, but it’ll be an interesting development to see how well Grant McCasland’s bunch can rally behind that loss and win in the tourney.
The Crazy Picks
Tennessee State
The Tigers are a team that, at a 15-seed, many would count out due to the virtue of them not coming from a notable conference, but it’s going to be difficult for many of us mid-major fans to watch this guard trio of Aaron Nkrumah, Travis Harper II and Dante Harris go out without a fight.
In his first season as head coach, Nolan Smith has done what many would never believe for the former Memphis assistant. The Tigers are dancing for the first time since 1994, and they’ve got some firepower if they want to prolong their stay in St. Louis, but they’ll have their work cut out for them.
Iowa State is a good basketball team. With the fourth-best defense in the nation, according to KenPom, that forces the fourth-most turnovers of any squad, this Cyclones team can swiftly break down this Tennessee State offense that has prided itself on offensive firepower and a speedy pace, but the catch is, as a Cinderella, we look for the what if.
What if TSU shoots well and knocks down their threes? Would Iowa State be able to out-shoot them? Probably, but also, we’ve seen some truly great performances from Smith’s team on offense, so we wouldn’t be surprised to see this guard trio put itself on SportsCenter this weekend.
Kennesaw State
Why in the world would I choose the six-seed in Conference USA to be a Cinderella? It’s because this team has something that every single successful Cinderella has in March: heart. The Owls go into this tournament despite losing CUSA Preseason Player of the Year Simeon Cottle midseason to NCAA violations, forcing head coach Antoine Pettway to rely on his core of mostly freshmen and sophomores.
They play a Gonzaga team that, while only having three losses, has shown weakness across the season. The toughest player to guard is going to be WCC player of the year Graham Ike, who commands an enormous amount of attention on offense, and Mark Few has surrounded him with talent that only makes the Bulldogs stronger, but the Owls have size as well. Braedan Lue and Frankquon Sherman have been massive pieces on the defensive end this year for Kennesaw, and if the Owls can pull together a strong offensive performance, it doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility.
