Before a single possession takes place on the court, the Toronto Raptors are already expected to beat the Dallas Mavericks at home on Sunday.
At least that’s what the Raptors fan base believes, especially after being held hostage by exceeded expectations and a timeline that’s regrettably ahead of schedule.
Simply put – the NBA’s lone Canadian franchise isn’t very good against competitive teams.
Fine then.
But that means the Raptors can’t drop games against the bottom dwellers of the league. Their fragile
lead over the play-in team is in danger of slipping away. With the Houston Rockets, Phoenix Suns, Detroit Pistons and the Denver Nuggets awaiting them later this month, the Raptors desperately need to take care of business against lower-ranked teams.
That begins with defending home court against the Mavericks, even if Cooper Flagg overcomes his questionable tag before the 6:00 p.m. EST tip-off on Sportsnet.
The last time the Raptors dropped a game to a team below .500 was in a 121-117 overtime loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on Jan. 16. Former fun guy Kawhi Leonard sat the game out with a right ankle sprain, but James Harden bullied the Raptors defence and finished with 31 points and 10 assists. When adjusting the bar to a slightly lower level, the Raptors haven’t lost to an opponent currently in a playoff or play-in spot since falling 138-117 to the Washington Wizards on Dec. 26.
Since their last meaningful victory over a playoff staple – a 103-101 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder back on Jan. 25 – the Raptors have struggled mightily in the second half. Toronto is 3-5 in the third and fourth quarters against playoff teams during this stretch. Often, it’s a disastrous third quarter that leads to a comfortable final frame for the opponent, or it’s a Raptors meltdown in back-end of the fourth quarter.
For most supporters who have followed the team this season, it’s a script that’s repetitive in the worst possible way. It feels like the Raptors are destined to lose in the opening round of the post-season. It’s like Toronto is on a collision course that can be seen before the car leaves the driveway.
But despite the doom and gloom, there’s still basketball to be played, and the Raptors aren’t necessarily firing on all cylinders (yet).
Centre Jakob Poeltl’s minutes are back to where they should be. The Austrian big man is averaging 27.4 minutes in his last five games. However, there’s still ample room for improvement. Poeltl is often good for a double-double in roughly half the games he appears in. Still, he only has one double-double in seven games since returning from injury on Feb. 11. With Collin Murray-Boyles already ruled out due to a thumb sprain, it’s imperative that Poeltl quickly works his way back to full strength. The rookie performed admirably in the veteran’s presence, and Poeltl returning the favour would go a long way in sustaining the Raptors’ lifeline.
With Brandon Ingram listed as questionable, it’s important for Scottie Barnes to summon the aggression he showcased earlier in the 2025-26 campaign. Barnes’ February numbers (and his two-game sample size in March) are down across the board in comparison to his season averages. His three-point shooting is the most glaring downward spiral, but that’s been a concern since early January. The bigger red flag is the rebounding totals. Since the All-Star break, Barnes has averaged 3.3 rebounds against playoff teams. That’s a drastic dip from the eight boards he averages on the season. Understandably, it’s also affecting his assist numbers since he’s initiating fewer breakouts.
Historically, Barnes is the type of player that goes as his team does. The best version of Barnes have arguably come during his rookie season, when he was surrounded by championship-level auxiliary players, and earlier this year when the Raptors were one of the hottest teams in the NBA. But when the Raptors struggle, Barnes does as well. If he can eventually tap into a state where he can consistently will Toronto to victories, it’ll help the team stay afloat in the Eastern Conference playoff race.
