Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, September 27 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN2
- Location: Flagler Credit Union Stadium — Boca Raton, FL
- Spread: Memphis (-13.5)
- Over/under: 61.5
- All-time series: Series tied, 1-1
- Last meeting: Memphis 25, Florida Atlantic 10 — December 23, 2020 (Montgomery Bowl)
- Current streak: Memphis, 1 (2020)
Setting the scene
Memphis (4-0, 0-0 American) is the talk of the town right now. Week 4 was the week of the Tiger as Memphis eradicated an 18-point deficit to storm back and defeat Arkansas. It marked Ryan Silverfield’s
11th consecutive non-conference victory — including bowl games — and sets Memphis in prime position for a College Football Playoff spot should it win the conference.
But that’s the catch. The Tigers must win the American. First up on the docket is Florida Atlantic (1-2, 0-0 American) that is fresh off a bye and looking for a signature win under a new regime. Memphis hopes to avoid a trap game in Boca Raton while the Owls look to play spoiler in Paradise.
It’s the third year the Tigers and Owls share the American Conference but the first conference matchup between the two. Memphis and Florida Atlantic squared off twice previously, with the Owls taking the 2007 New Orleans Bowl and Tigers surging in the 2020 Montgomery Bowl.
Memphis Tigers outlook
Last year Memphis earned a signature win at Florida State (which didn’t exactly age well), and one week later, the Tigers traveled to Navy as road favorites. The triumphant win over the Seminoles was followed by a stunning road defeat as the Tigers’ couldn’t get their defense right in a 56-44 defeat.
Fresh off an emotional 18-point comeback win over Arkansas, Memphis hopes to avoid a similar letdown in Boca Raton and maintain the FBS’s longest active win streak (currently at eight game).
Memphis proved its status as contenders last week, concluding the Arkansas game on a valiant 22-3 run to emerge in 32-31 fashion. The Tigers appeared defeated in the first half trailing 28-10, but their ground-oriented offense slowly chipped away at the Razorbacks’ advantage, while the defense manufactured several critical turnovers and stops — including a forced fumble by Chris Bracy while Arkansas was in range for a game-winning chip shot field goal.
The Tigers discovered the true poise of dual-threat quarterback Brendon Lewis in the victory. After a long lineage of star pocket passer quarterbacks, Lewis provides something different to the Tiger offense. The 6’3”, 210 pound quarterback finished with 199 passing yards and 103 rushing yards against the Razorbacks, becoming the first Memphis QB to rush beyond the century mark since Maurice Avery in 2005.
The run game is the strength of Memphis’ offense, headlined by Lewis and running backs Sutton Smith and Greg Desrosiers Jr. Smith recently took home Doak Walker National Running Back of the Week honors for his 12-carry, 147-yard outburst against Arkansas, sprinting in a go-ahead 64-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter. As a unit, Memphis is 19th nationally in rushing yards per game, averaging 236 yards per game and nearly 6.0 yards per attempt.
One aspect which significantly changed in Memphis’ offense is its tendency to pass. The Tigers ranked top 20 in passing yards and attempts a year ago, but they’re currently 102nd in dropbacks a third of the way through the regular season. When they pass, Nevada transfer Cortez Braham Jr. — who played with Lewis in Reno — is the preferred target, attaining 255 yards on the year including 102 vs. Arkansas.
Memphis’ defense features 10 new transfers along with all-conference defensive end William Whitlow Jr. It was a tale of two halves for the unit against Arkansas. The Razorbacks produced 500 yards and moved the ball effectively in all four quarters, but they were held out of the end zone in the final 30 minutes thanks to opportune defensive playmaking. In the fourth quarter alone, Memphis forced two critical turnovers with Arkansas in scoring position and landed a massive third down sack to deny the Razorbacks of field goal range.
Whitlow is one essential member of the front, producing four tackles for loss in a stellar start to the season. Newcomers making an impact alongside the veteran include inside linebacker Sam Brumfield, who ranks first on the Tigers in tackles (22) and sacks (3.0), as well as the hard-hitting strong safety Chris Bracy who jarred out the game-winning forced fumble last week.
Among the strengths of this collective group and backfield pressure and aggressive playmaking, and they rank 13th nationally in both team tackles for loss and takeaways. Memphis limits the run exceptionally well, but the way to gain an edge over the Tigers is throwing over the top, as Arkansas did in a 325-yard passing performance in Week 4.
Florida Atlantic Owls outlook
Florida Atlantic is well-rested after taking its first bye week of the Zach Kittley era. The Owls hope the bye week presents new fortune after struggling mightily in their FBS matchups this year. FAU dropped its season opener at Maryland 39-7, although the magnitude of the defeat primarily dealt with a 6-0 result in the turnover battle. The Owls then snapped their 7-game Shula Bowl win streak over rival FIU as giveaways once again contributed to a double-digit defeat.
No FBS team averages more turnovers per game than FAU’s 3.0. The Owls are also last in the FBS in turnover margin at a -8, and reversing that trend is of utmost importance to Kittley and his staff. Kittley, an air raid disciple with offensive coordinator stops at WKU and Texas Tech, will place his trust in quarterback Caden Veltkamp. Seven interceptions aside, the reigning CUSA Offensive Player of the Year at WKU has invigorated life into the Owls’ passing offense. He averages 293 passing yards per game on a 64.7 completion rate — a significant upgrade from FAU’s aerial attack which averaged 209 yards on a 58.6 completion percentage in 2024.
Even though Veltkamp is brand new to Boca Raton in 2025, he already has perfect rapport with his top receiver. Easton Messer also made the trek from WKU to FAU this offseason, and Messer ranks atop the Owls with 232 receiving yards on 28 receptions. Jayshon Platt and Asaad Waseem are among the other preferred targets in a passing offense which slings it more than anybody else in the country. No other FBS program averages more than FAU’s 52.7 passing attempts per game — and nobody is even within seven attempts.
The passing tendency in the Kittley offense takes a significant load off the run game. Gemari Sands handles most of the duties on the ground with 232 rushing yards on a stellar 7.0 average, but he only averages 11 attempts per outing. Given Memphis’ run defense vs. pass defense numbers, Florida Atlantic likely continues its pass-happy trajectory this week, but Sands is capable when his number is called.
Defensively, the Owls seek improvement with a 76th overall ranking in total defense, but the unit has been placed in compromised positions due to the offense’s barrage of turnovers. With zero interceptions and one fumble recovery on the year, FAU hasn’t exactly been able to return the turnover favor itself. Still, there are redeeming qualities of the unit including backfield penetration, racking up 7.0 tackles for loss per game. A reformed defensive front led by Ohio transfer defensive tackle CJ Doggette (1.0 sack, two tackles for loss) has been sturdy at times. FAU still hopes to develop a stronger pass rush moving forward, and getting to the quarterback in the backfield will be a point of emphasis given Brendon Lewis’ mobility.
Marshall transfer outside linebacker Leon Hart Jr. is another key cog on the defensive side of the ball, but his status remains unknown for Saturday. Hart missed the Week 3 matchup at FIU after suffering a Week 2 injury. A potential return would be monumental as Florida Atlantic looks for formulas to limit Memphis’ high-powered ground attack.
Prediction
This game should fold similarly to Memphis’ other two road games this fall, which were comfortable wins at Georgia State and Troy. Florida Atlantic can move the ball through the air and cause some problems for the Tiger defense, but the Owls have been susceptible to mistakes and poor second halves this year.
Memphis’ offense gained loads of confidence in last week’s comeback and the Tigers should be able to establish a working run game in Boca Raton. With Brendon Lewis, Sutton Smith, and Greg Desrosiers Jr. operating as an effective three-headed monster, the Tigers improve to 5-0 for the first time since 2019 — starting conference play on a perfect footing.
Prediction: Memphis 31, Florida Atlantic 16
