Staff Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

SB Nation

Florida State (3-4, 0-4 ACC) will celebrate Homecoming Weekend by hosting the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-2, 2-2 ACC) on Saturday night in Doak Campbell Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. and

the game will be broadcast on the ACC Network.

Since 2012, FSU has won 11 consecutive homecoming games and is 62-12-1 all-time on Homecoming. FSU is 31-9-1 all-time against the Demon Deacons, including a 20-4 mark in Doak.

This game is also FSU Football’s Seminole Heritage game. FSU is 2-0 in Seminole Heritage games, beating No. 16 Duke in 2023 and Charleston Southern in 2024.

Beleaguered FSU Coach Mike Norvell, who 59% of TN readers surveyed felt should NOT have been retained by fellow beleaguered Florida State Athletic Director Mike Alford following yet another embarrassing and inexplicable loss as a 17.5-point favorite to Stanford, has exhausted any goodwill earned and will likely not survive another loss, at home, on Homecoming weekend, as a 9.5-point favorite.

Consider:

A loss against Wake Forest Saturday night will result in the 2nd consecutive year the FSU football program has had a 5-game losing streak (minimum to date) under Head Coach Mike Norvell.
A loss to Wake would be the Seminoles’ 10th straight ACC game loss, a streak extending over 13 months (406 days), while giving FSU a 1-11 record in their last 12 ACC conference games played.
An FSU loss on Saturday will guarantee Wake Forest postseason bowl eligibility after just 8 games in. The Demon Deacons were projected pre-season to finish with a 4.5-win season final record.

Regardless, the game still needs to be played, so let’s take a quick look at the stats:

Here are FSU’s stats leaders to date:

Wake Forest YTD stats and rankings:

As we await the kickoff, enjoy some highlights from FSU and Wake’s last meeting in 2023.

According to FanDuel, FSU is a 9.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 51.5 points.

Read what your TOMAHAWK NATION PROGNOSTICATORS think about this Saturday’s showdown.
Then look over and digest all the FREE PRE-GAME CONTENT we’ve posted leading up to this game.
We would love to hear your thoughts about how you feel about this game and your final score prediction in the comments.

Curt Weiler (season record: 2-5)

I said last time that I was done giving them the benefit of the doubt if they lost to Stanford. I’m sticking to that, but uncertainty about Tommy Castellanos’ health and the fact that Wake Forest is coming off a win over SMU last week only make me more skeptical about the Seminoles in this one.

Wake Forest 27, Florida State 24

NoleThruandThru (season record: 2-5)

I remember what it felt like as the clock ran down to 0:00 on November 6, 2006. I was one of the few Seminoles faithful left in the stadium, freezing and drenched, as the team trudged back into the locker room after getting dismantled 30-0 by Wake Forest. That day brought swift change, as Jeff Bowden was soon out, setting in motion plans for FSU to hire Jimbo Fisher.

While a similar score this season wouldn’t surprise me, I’m not holding out any hope for similar wheels to be set in motion in the aftermath. Not under this administration.

Wake Forest 31, FSU 27

Matt Minnick (season record: 2-5; 4-3 ATS)

As of 2 pm on Thursday, the spread for this game is FSU -9.5 (meaning FSU would have to win by 10+ points to cover the spread), and I, for one, am just baffled. Either Vegas knows something about Wake’s lineup that others don’t, or the public is just wildly off base about the current state of the team and locker room in Tallahassee.

Down to down, Florida State is surely the better team. But this team (and really this program under Mike Norvell, 2023 aside) has mastered the art of winning the stats while losing the game. Will FSU hit some explosive plays on offense? Probably, they are one of the better teams in the country and doing that. Will FSU force Wake into a decent amount of 3rd and longs? Probably.

Honestly, FSU might even win the turnover battle. But special teams will likely again be a disaster, game management will be poor (aka, attempting a FG from 57 when you just watched your freshman kicker miss from 52 while getting a delay of game), and ultimately, Florida State will do enough to allow Wake Forest to hang around, so that officiating and luck become a factor. And it feels like those two factors haven’t been on FSU’s side since the 2003 UF game, aka Rix to Sam, aka Swindle in the Swamp.

Wake 23, FSU 21

Jordan Silversmith (season record: 3-4)

Well, I went back to the Seminoles and got burned. Florida State laid an egg against Stanford two weeks ago, and even though FSU is coming off a bye, nothing inspires confidence that Mike Norvell’s team will turn it around on Saturday. From the outside, it seems like the head coach has lost the locker room, and once that happens, a season quickly reaches the point of no return.

Not only do I not trust Florida State, but Wake Forest is also a decent team that punches above its weight. First-year head coach Jake Dickert has the Demon Deacons rolling after a win over SMU, and RB Demond Claiborne will be the highest-drafted player on the field. The losing streak extends to five games as Doak Campbell Stadium turns toxic on Saturday night.

Wake Forest 31, FSU 27

Tim Scribble (season record: 3—4)

Hopefully, after a bye week, the FSU offense has it’s full arsenal of weapons. Tommy C’s health is the one to keep an eye on. If it’s Sperry at the helm, I do think he can run the offense. But can FSU’s defense step up? I may regret this, but I think they do. FSU stops the bleeding and wins.

FSU 27, Wake 24

Jacob Smith (season record: (3-1)

There’s no love lost between these two ACC teams. It’s not an FSU-Miami level of hatred, but I certainly don’t like… whatever the hell a Demon Deacon is. Wake on paper this year is perhaps rivaling their 2021 ACC Championship caliber of team, not the doormat that they were from the 90s to the 2000s. The defense will still give up 30 points because, to have the No. 2 offense in the country, you must simply be bad at something. It should genuinely be a good, evenly matched game. FSU is looking for something to go right after four straight losses. It will FINALLY happen this week.

Either that, or we all fall into despair yet again.

FSU 42, What Even Are Demon Deacons 35

Frank D’Nolë (season record: 3-4)

This is the point in the season when everything gets turned around. The talent has been there all along, but the stupidity of the coaches, AND the players, has caused FSU to lose games that could have been won.

This team should have easily been at least 5-2 at this point and playing for a bowl berth at minimum, but instead, they all made stupid mistakes at the worst times. All of them. Every one.

FSU Seminoles 45, I’ll call them Deacon Blues 17

Perry Kostidakis (season record: 2-5, 3-4 ATS)

I don’t know if it’s delusion, wishcasting or just expecting a dead cat bounce but, despite all evidence put on display in previous weeks, I think that Florida State manages to actually win a game it’s favored in.

Florida State has been on the losing end of four one-score games (if we’re gonna count Miami as one even though it was a bit of a fugazi final score), and finally, something is gonna give.

Wake’s biggest challenge for FSU is the Demon Deacons defense, which is especially capable in defending the pass and preventing explosive plays. On offense, Wake’s susceptible to turnovers and still is playing quarterback musical chairs — something that sssists the Seminoles’ pass defense struggles of their own.

Florida State actually manages to convert yards to points in this one and that makes the difference.

FSU 27, Wake Forest 14