Marquette Golden Eagles (5-9, 0-3 Big East) at #4 Connecticut Huskies (13-1, 3-0 Big East)
Date: Sunday, January 4, 2025
Time: 1pm Central
Location: Gampel Pavilion, Storrs, Connecticut
Marquette Stats Leaders
Points: Chase Ross, 16.6 ppg
Rebounds:
Assists: Sean Jones, 3.9 apg
Connecticut Stats Leaders
Points: Solo Ball, 15.5
ppg Rebounds: Tarris Reed, 7.6 rpg Assists: Silas Demary, 5.9 apg, best in the Big East
KenPom.com Rankings
Marquette: #117, their lowest ranking since going into a home game against Butler at #120 on January 30, 2016, in Steve Wojciechowski’s second season in charge
Connecticut: #5
Game Projection: Connecticut has a 98% chance of victory, with a predicted score of 84-62
This Season So Far: I think it’s important to note that UConn head coach Dan Hurley has used four different starting lineups to this point of the season. Only two guys — Silas Demary and Alex Karaban — have started all four games for the Huskies, and only five guys have played in all 14 games. Solo Ball missed a Big East game against DePaul, Jayden Ross missed their last game with a hamstring issue, Tarris Reed was in and out of the lineup five different times in UConn’s first nine games, and highly regarded freshman Braylon Mullins didn’t even debut until Game #7 of the year, but now he’s starting and playing 30 minutes a night.
And the Huskies are 13-1. They are currently KenPom’s #19 offense and #3 defense. They have a 4-1 record in Quadrant 1 games so far, and all five of those games are against top 25 competition, and only one of the five was a true home game for UConn. Their only loss this season was at home against Arizona, the team that’s currently #1 in the Associated Press poll by just four points, and the Huskies were leading with two minutes to play. I think any smart and intelligent person would tell you that UConn would love to play that game again with Tarris Reed and Braylon Mullins in the lineup, as both men were out for that one.
Tempo Free Fun: I don’t think there’s anything instructive to take away from “hey, how did the AP #1 team in the country beat UConn,” so we can just skip past that point entirely.
If Marquette wants to beat Connecticut at Gampel Pavilion, they have to do some combination of the following:
- Counter the #4 effective field goal percentage defense in the country, specifically shoot better than 26% on threes and 44% on twos, which is UConn’s current season averages on defense.
- Avoid getting shots swatted into the fourth row by the combination of Tarris Reed and Eric Reibe, who are both top 60 in the country in block rate (or Reed will be as soon as he gets the minutes to qualify)
- Deal with one of the 50 best defensive rebounding teams in the country.
- Take advantage of UConn sending teams to the free throw line way too much.
- Get incredibly lucky that Solo Ball goes back to shooting 28% on three-pointers like he was for the first 11 games instead of the 42% he’s at in two Big East games…. which is obviously more inline with his 41% shooting for the season last year.
- Find a way to stop Malachi Smith and Alex Karaban from shooting over 45% on three-pointers, something that UConn’s collective opponents can not do this season.
- Provoke UConn’s slightly shaky ball control (#110 in turnover rate on offense) into a bad day.
- Stop giving up second chance opportunities, especially since that’s not a terrific strength of UConn’s, even though both Reed and Reibe are pretty good at getting offensive rebounds.
- Do not let UConn start a parade to the free throw line, as they’re not inclined to find ways to get there on their own.
Doesn’t have to be all of it, just has to be enough of it to end up with a one point advantage when the horn sounds. The problem is, of course, given the nature and trajectory of Marquette’s season, doing enough of those things is probably going to involve playing a perfect 40 minutes of basketball. Either that, or at least a dozen guys doing a combination of cons to pull off an elaborate theft. One or the other.
Marquette Last 10 Games: 2-8 and riding a five game losing streak. Marquette hadn’t lost five games in a row since the last six games of a 1-12 stretch in the 2014-15 season. That’s obviously the last time that MU lost six straight as well.
Connecticut Last 10 Games: 9-1, and riding a nine game winning streak, which is the ninth longest streak in the country.
All-Time Series: Connecticut leads, 13-8
Current Streak: The Huskies have won five straight against the Golden Eagles, including both meetings last year and all three meetings in 2023-24, too. UConn has also won 10 of the last 12.
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