The New England Patriots are back in the playoff picture following their upset win over the Buffalo Bills. In order to not just stay there but solidify its position, the team of head coach Mike Vrabel will need to make it back-to-back wins on Sunday: a victory over the Las Vegas Raiders would allow the Patriots to keep building some momentum after some early-season issues.
How can the Patriots do so? Here are three things that will be important if they want to defend their home turf and improve to 3-2
on the year.
Don’t play into the Raiders’ hands
Through four games, no team in the NFL has had more takeaways than the Raiders, whose nine combined interceptions (4) and fumble recoveries (5) top the league and are a big reason behind their 3-1 record. Likewise, the Patriots giving the ball away 10 times — tied for worst in the league — is why they are only 2-2 so far this year.
Needless to say that ball security is of the utmost importance every week and something the Patriots need continue to do more successfully than they have this season. However, against an opportunistic opponent that has proven itself capable of taking advantage of short fields or momentum swings, it will be under the microscope even more: New England simply cannot afford to give the Raiders any extra chances this week.
Luckily for the Patriots, there have been some encouraging signs. Even though Drake Maye turned the ball over twice in last week’s win over the Bills, both of those giveaways were more excusable than the abysmal and frankly game-losing decisions the young QB had made over the first three games of the year.
Ideally, neither of those plays — a strip sack and interception off an unlucky bounce — happens. But as far as error repetition from the quarterback is concerned, there is not much he could do differently. That won’t make much of a difference against the Raiders, but on the grand scale of things shows that Maye and company might be trending in a positive direction after all.
Neutralize the pressure
It is no surprise that the Baltimore Ravens were willing to pay two first-round draft picks for him this offseason, before a trade fell through due to a failed physical: Maxx Crosby remains one of the most disruptive players in the NFL and as good an edge rusher as the Patriots will go up against all season.
He is not the only problem up front, though. Malcolm Koonce and Kwity Paye are also skilled enough to throw an offense off its tracks if given an opportunity to do so; the entire edge group is more than capable of helping decide the game in Las Vegas’ favor — especially as part of what is an aggressive pressure scheme — and the Patriots need to find a way to account for that. Helping offensive tackles Will Campbell and Morgan Moses through chips or double teams is one way, but offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels could also try to do something else.
Go where Crosby and company are not by stressing the interior of the line.
Tonka Hemingway, Folorunso Fatukasi and Adam Butler are not bad players, but there is a clear drop-off in quality from the edge to the interior. New England needs to find a way to use this to its advantage, and stress the group particularly on the ground.
While the Raiders are ranked sixth in EPA given up per rush (-0.183), they are 31st in the league in rush yards per attempt (5.2). That disconnect stems mostly from the team’s ability to force turnovers, which naturally has a significant impact on expected points. If the Patriots can hold onto the football, though, they should be able to put pressure on a run defense that is not as good as its advanced statistical rankings might suggest.
Force Kirk Cousins out of his comfort zone
He only ranks third in catches (16) and second in both yards (202) and touchdowns (2) on the team, but tight end Brock Bowers very much is the motor that powers the Raiders offense.
“What he does at his size, the speed, the route craft, and being able to catch at the catch point — he’s like a big slot receiver,” Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel said about Bowers this week. “He has downfield speed, he runs outward breaking routes, he runs routes like a receiver, but then also he’s got the ability to double guys up inside.”
From a Patriots’ defensive perspective, the goal very much is clear: find a way to make Bowers less effective, and by extension force quarterback Kirk Cousins out of his comfort zone. How do you do that, though? By focusing on what both of them do best.
In Cousins’ case it is operating in rhythm and throwing timing routes; the 38-year-old is not necessarily capable of making extended plays or adjusting on the fly at this stage in his career. His biggest weapon is not his physical skill but rather his ability to solve problems with his mind, and take what a defense is giving him. Without Las Vegas having a wide receiver capable of stressing defenses deep, that is taking the underneath play rather than forcing throws that are not there to be made (as is reflected by Las Vegas’ 18th-ranked 7.1 yards per pass play).
This means a heavy dosage of Bowers and fellow tight end Michael Mayer, the latter being more of a traditional in-line option compared to the receiver-first TE that is Bowers. No team in. the NFL is playing more 12-personnel than the Raiders. From a New England perspective, it’s all about being sound in their zone coverage and not putting their personnel in exposed situations.
They did a mighty fine job against Buffalo’s capable tight end duo of Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox last week, and a repeat performance on Sunday would go a long way toward securing a win.
