“The 2026 AL is a mess” has basically been an evergreen statement from the time the season started. Looking at the standings right now, the Yankees and Red Sox have fine enough, playoff team-worthy records. And then, you have five teams separated by 2.5 games for the last AL playoff spot… with the 60-60 Rangers leading the pack. Woof.
Projections-wise, it might seem fairly close. The Rangers are projected to be the sixth-best team in the AL in terms of finishing record, with 82ish wins. But, even
with about seven weeks of regular season play remaining, the actual playoff entrant isn’t going to be the team that rolls their expected value, but probably the team that hits a higher-percentile outcome. There’s gotta be at least one of those in this quintet, right? (Also, this quintet doesn’t involve the Mariners, who have the roster talent to make a charge, even if they’re further back than 2.5 games.)
On the flip side, you also have to consider that the Astros lead the AL West at just 61-60. So, if, say, the Rangers are the team that “roll high” for the rest of the year, it’s possible that they take not the last Wild Card spot, but the AL West — and if none of the other teams do, maybe that sixth spot really does go to an 81-win team.
It’s kind of sad that this is what it’s come down to, but welcome to the expanded playoff field and the roster malaise era. One hopes that it’s not here to stay, but…
