I love writing these gameday columns, and in them, one of my goals is to provide a unique perspective on the state of the Buffalo Bills and the game ahead of them.
This perspective here is probably not too unique.
But it felt unavoidable.
There are colossal games down the stretch for the Bills against the Chiefs, Patriots, Packers, and Bears. But I’m going to call these next two games just as critical.
Starting today, the Bills have consecutive divisional contests against 2-7 teams in the Jets and Dolphins.
And during the Sean McDermott era, occasionally, these games have kept the Bills from the coveted No. 1 seed in the playoffs.
In 2021, it was a 9-6 loss to the hapless Jaguars then a bizarre 14-10 loss at home against the Patriots in which Mac Jones went 2-of-3 for 19 yards in a windstorm.
The Bills went 11-6, and the Titans earned the AFC’s top seed at just 12-5.
The next season, a hard-fought 20-17 loss on the road against the eventual 7-10 Jets immediately preceded that Vikings loss in overtime.
Buffalo went 13-3 and, in the Damar Hamlin year, weren’t awarded the No. 1 seed because the Chiefs won 14 games before the playoffs began.
The 2023 season started with that bizarre, four-turnover Josh Allen game, an outing in which Aaron Rodgers played three snaps, that culminated in a walk-off punt-return touchdown in overtime for the Jets.
Months later, the Bills lost 24-22 at home in primetime against the Russell Wilson-led Broncos when they had too many men on the field on a last-second miss by Denver’s kicker who ultimately made good on his second chance.
The Bills went 11-6, finished as the No. 2 seed. The Ravens went 13-4 and secured the top spot in the AFC playoffs at 13-4.
The 2024 campaign was cleaner of course — but clear clock-management mishaps late in Houston and Los Angeles were integral to losses to the Texans and Rams. The Bills went 13-4 but missed the No. 1 seed with the Chiefs going 15-2.
Last year, there was an incredibly uncharacteristic blowout loss on November 9 in Miami to the eventual 7-10 Dolphins. Allen missing that throw on the two-point conversion against the Eagles hurt too. Buffalo lost that game 13-12. The Bills went 12-5, didn’t even win the AFC East, and had to go on the road in the wild-card round. The Broncos earned the No. 1 seed at 14-3.
This is not to suggest a team has to be absolutely perfect to earn the No. 1 seed in their respective conference’s playoffs.
But most of the time, those teams that win anywhere from 13 to 15 games in the regular season don’t have many (or any) losses against bad teams or lose games that feature insane occurrences that lead to the club snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
These Bills aren’t the most dominant 7-1 team in NFL history. But they’re damn good. No. 1 seed good. Divisional games are seemingly always tighter, because of the history. The teams are familiar with each other.
But this will be Joe Brady’s first foray against the Jets on the road. The same for defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard.
For as spooked as some Bills fans might be given some of Buffalo’s past struggles inside MetLife Stadium, to paraphrase Brady, the Jets have to play the Bills too.
And if the Bills are going to stay the course that leads to a bye week in the playoffs and home-field advantage throughout, they must emphasize the underrated importance of these next two games — starting at 1pm today.
