For the third season out of four, the Diamondbacks playoff hopes hinge on the final weekend of the series. Of the two other final weekends, one worked out, one didn’t. Tiebreaker time, I guess. This season, like in 2024, they come in without any control over their own destiny, this time needing the Phillies to lose at least twice, while they need to win two.
Neither side has it easy this weekend. The Phillies are going home to face the AL West winning Tampa Bay Rays, while the Diamondbacks have to go on the road
to face the hottest team in baseball, the San Diego Padres. No pressure boys. On the other hand, the Padres locked up their Wild Card spot last night with a win against the Dodgers and now only have positioning left to play for.
Because of that, you’ll find that the Padres have not announced any of their pitchers yet. They get the luxury of moving their pitchers around and putting their best foot forward going into the playoffs. The Diamondbacks get no such luxury. They’ll play the cards they’ve been given and hope for the best.
Game 1 — 9/25, 6:40 PM: Brandon Pfaadt (1.7 bWAR, 7-3, 3.72 ERA/112 ERA+, 1.16 WHIP) vs TBD
Pfaadt is coming off a 4 1/3 inning outing against the Yankees where he only gave up one run. It was his shortest outing since returning to the rotation, but also his most successful since he went four starts and only gave up one run between them. You’ll see a similarly short leash in this outing, as Lovullo will be more than willing to get into the bullpen to avoid the One Big Inning.
Game 2 — 9/26, 5:40 PM: Corbin Burnes (-0.3 bWAR, 0-0, 7.84 ERA/55 ERA+, 9.00) vs TBD
Expect Corbin Burnes to be on the same short leash, if not even shorter. He hasn’t been stellar since returning from the injured list, nor does he seem to be getting stretched out. After throwing three scoreless in his initial return, he gave up five in 4 2/3 and then 4 in 2 2/3. The most startling number out of that is the five home runs he gave up in those two starts. It all comes down to him not having the feel for the control of his pitches. Evey analyst and former pitcher says that’s the last thing to come back after Tommy John Surgery and Burnes’ recovery is making that very clear.
Game 3 — 9/27, 12:10 PM: Michael Soroka (2.2 bWAR, 9-5, 3.31 ERA/126 ERA+, 1.08 WHIP) vs TBD
If you had told me at the start of the season that it would all rest on the final series of the season, and the final game of that final series would be started by Michael Soroka and I’d be okay with that, I don’t think I would have believed you. It’s almost like the people that are paid to put together baseball teams know more than me… No that can’t be it. Anyway, Soroka has had a great season, one of the very best in his career, and if it comes down to the final game, the starting pitcher will not be my concern.
Conclusion
Well, sorry, I spoiled the conclusion at the start of the article. It all comes down to this. Not a whole lot more to add, other than a reminder. After Sunday, we don’t know when the next Diamondbacks game will be. Make sure to take some time this weekend to enjoy it, even if it doesn’t go the way we’re all hoping it does. It’s going to be an especially long, cold offseason.
I think they’ve got a chance to win this series. We won’t face the top of the Padres rotation, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see hitters and relievers get days off that they wouldn’t normally get. But the team has to execute. They’ve been playing solid baseball this week, and it’s paid off in the form of a five game winning streak. To have the very best chance of success, they have to see that winning streak go to eight games. It’s going to be a tall order, but… I think they can do it. Give ‘em hell, men. Go Dbacks!
