This is kind of a weird question, but hear me out.
As it stands right now, the Braves are on pace for a 94-win season. That’s pretty good! Of course, you all know about how June (especially June 9-30) was a nightmare, and the best the Braves have managed since is .500 ball. So, at the same time, the bar to clear is both reasonable (playing above a 94-win pace for 2.5 months) and perhaps very high up there (a team that is among the worst in MLB for the past six weeks playing above a 94-win pace for 2.5 months).
But, I want to flag something else, which is that despite their record, the Braves’ production has been mediocre. Part of this is a brief story about the edges of production: once your production is high enough, you win more than expected since both your run scoring and run prevention make it hard to lose; at the same time, when any of your production is low enough, it’s hard to win.
- Through June 8, the Braves were fourth in position player fWAR and ninth in pitching fWAR. However, the way in which they layered those got them way more wins than you’d expect from a top-ten team in both. I don’t really mean this is sequencing or a benefit from BABIP or anything, it’s more just that if you’re good at both, you can squeak out wins when one doesn’t fire. Combine that with some aggressive pitching management to make sure that you deploy the pitching when the offense isn’t pulling its weight, and yeah, that team probably shouldn’t have been 45-21, but that’s what happened.
- After June 8, the Braves are 29th in position player fWAR and 23rd in pitching fWAR. That’s really bad. They’re maybe a little lucky to have gone 10-19 (case in point, the game against the Cardinals on Sunday), but that’s also about what you’d expect a bottom ten team in both to do.
So, put that together, and the Braves are still riding a bit of a “our record is way better than our production” from earlier in the season.
Which brings me to my question: do you think that the Braves can get back to their 94-win pace over the 67 games that remain? I tend to think “no” unless they go back to the same type of management they were doing through the first two months… and even that’s a stretch, because the management has to result in the same rate of wins, which isn’t likely. But, that’s why I’m throwing it out there. What do you think?
