Last week, I wrote about the increase in advanced stats for the WNBA, focusing on Dan Falkenheim’s WNBA RAPM. In the article, I also referenced data from ESPN Analytics, which evaluates players’ impact on winning through net points and wins above replacement (WAR) metrics.
Net points strives to give a player credit for how much they contribute to, or detract from, their team’s overall point differential both offensively and defensively. WAR applies net points to determine how many more wins a player contributes
to their team compared to if they were replaced by an average player.
On Thursday, the WNBA’s leader in WAR takes the court: Brittney Sykes.
Yep, Slim is making a fat impact for the Toronto Tempo, and more than justifying the even fatter contract the team gave her to lure her north of the border. With 1.1 wins above replacement added so far, Sykes is tied with a more expected name, A’ja Wilson, atop the still too early leaderboard.
She’ll aim to possibly exceed A’ja by leading Toronto to a third-straight road win, as the Tempo are in Minneapolis to take on the Minnesota Lynx (8 p.m. ET, WNBA League Pass).
After an ugly opener, Sykes has swiftly found her…Tempo. She’s notched over 25 points in three-straight games, with her field goal percentage increasing game by game. Always prolific at getting to the free throw line, Sykes is unsurprisingly excelling at attracting fouls in this stricter officiating environment. Slim leads the league with 10.4 free throws per game, and she’s making a sparkling 90.4 percent of them. Per ESPN Analytics, she has added +25.8 net points through her foul-drawing exploits, which leads the league by almost eight total points.
Sykes is showing that her stellar Unrivaled season was not just a byproduct of the friendly sight lines in Sephora Arena or the more open 3×3 court. During an Unrivaled broadcast, Chelsea Gray, visiting the play-by-play booth, complimented Sykes’ improved ability to alter her pace on drives. Gray noted that Sykes was not simply trying to use her speed and strength to power her way into the paint, but injecting more craft. That skill boost is translating to the W, and benefitting Toronto.
Precocious driving craft certainly describes the game of the WAR leader for Toronto’s opponent on Thursday: Olivia Miles.
The Lynx rookie is top-20 league wide at 0.5 wins above replacement. She’s also third in the league for net points from drives, with +9.4.
However, she is not the highest-ranked rook, and not even the highest-ranked rookie in action on Thursday. Or, even the second-highest ranked.
The New York Liberty, Golden State Valkyries, Los Angeles Sparks and Phoenix Mercury also play, with the Liberty hosting the Valkyries (8 p.m. ET, Prime Video) and the Mercury welcoming the Sparks (10 p.m. ET, Prime Video).
Here’s a look at the WAR leader for each team. In the comments, let us know if this metric passes the smell test for you.
Do you think it accurately captures the player who is providing the most winning impact above expectation for her team? Or, does the metric insufficiently assign credit, with some players benefitting from playing alongside talented teammates? Alternatively, is the sample size too small to determine anything definitive, categorizing this stat, as well as the other data from ESPN Analytics, as “fun trivia” rather than revelatory information?
Phoenix Mercury: Jovana Nogic (+0.7 WAR)
Along with Miles, Eric Nemchock highlighted Jovana Nogic as one of five WNBA rookies who are proving themselves more than ready for prime time.
At 2-3, the Mercury might be a bit disappointing, but they’d likely be in a worse spot without the 28-year-old Serbian sharpshooter, who has added 0.7 wins above replacement, tied for fourth overall in the WNBA.
Nogic’s value comes from her magnificent markswomanship. Through the Mercury’s five games, she has added +18.2 net points from her 51.7 percent 3-point shooting. Against a thus-far poor Sparks defense that gives up long-range shots, Nogic could be the difference maker for Phoenix on Thursday.
New York Liberty: Pauline Astier (+0.6 WAR)
The stats confirm that another rookie is ready for the brighter lights of the WNBA, with Pauline Astier helping a depleted Liberty begin the season at 3-1. She is tied for ninth in the league, adding 0.6 wins above replacement.
Astier quickly has acclimated to the WNBA, providing efficient point guard play in the injured Sabrina Ionescu’s stead. After fully participating in practices this week, Ionescu, who has been dealing with a foot injury, appears slated to make her season debut on Thursday, as she is listed as a game-time decision. Betinijah Laney-Hamilton (personal) and Satou Sabally (reconditioning) also are listed as questionable.
As Eric noted, the Liberty’s return to full health likely will minimize Astier’s opportunities, even if she should remain a rotational regular. It’s also worth considering that, for all her positive play, Astier’s strong metrics likely are enhanced by her offensive environment. Playing with two stretch bigs in Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones makes life easier for a small guard. And Stewie, the Eastern Conference Player of the Week, just trails Astier with 0.5 wins above replacement contributed through four games.
Los Angeles Sparks: Kelsey Plum (+0.5 WAR)
The break down of Kelsey Plum’s 0.5 WAR, which is tied for 14th best in the league, reflects the early-season issues with the Sparks.
Plum, as Edwin Garcia recently highlighted, is one of the best offensive players in the league, proven by the 0.8 wins above replacement she has added through her offensive talents, a mark that trails only the offensive impact of Sykes and Wilson.
Plum, however, is the only player on this list who, according the ESPN Analytics’ formula, is negative defender, costing her teams 0.3 wins compared to an average defender. Considering that Sparks have a 121.3 defensive rating, the worst mark in the W by six points, it’s not surprising that no Spark, including seven-time WNBA All-Defense selection Nneka Ogwumike, is rated as a positive defender by WAR, with Nneka at an even 0.0.
Barring a miraculous defensive transformation, outscoring Phoenix seems like LA’s only path to a second win.
The fact that Plum can score—whenever and however is needed—will be essential. Per ESPN Analytics, she is in the top five in net points added via bank shots, drives, rim finishing, floaters, layups and midrangers. She’s top 10 in 3-pointers.
KP’s gonna score, but can she and the Sparks stop the Mercury from scoring?
Golden State Valkyries: Veronica Burton (+0.4 WAR)
As WAR is a stat that relies on volume, with players having to actually play games in order to increase their winning impact, members of the Valkyries sit lower on the current WAR leaderboard, having played just three games.
Yet, the small sample size still reveals the benefits of Veronica Burton, whose 0.4 wins above replacement is tied for 23rd in the league. According to ESPN Analytics’ calculation, Burton has contributed 0.2 wins through her offense and 0.2 wins via her defense, an illustration of her status as a true two-way player.
With +11.9 net points added through turnovers created, a top-10 mark, Burton captains a Golden State defense that ranks second in the league in net points from turnovers, meaning the Valkyries succeed at turning teams over while not sacrificing the ball themselves.
Thus far, turnovers have been a bit of an issue for the Liberty, likely a product of the team’s lack of familiarity. Ball security could be determinative in Thursday’s matchup in Brooklyn.
