LOUISVILLE MUST AVOID NEGATIVE PLAYS
Wake Forest comes into this game with 17 tackles for loss on the season, while UofL has given up 8 tackles for loss in each of their games against FBS competition. A strength for the Wake defense is a clear weakness for the Cards, but they will need to find a way to fix their issues with their run blocking this weekend.
Wake has a very clear goal with their front seven. They want to move their defensive line around to blow up your blocking schemes, and they want their linebackers
to shoot gaps to make plays in the backfield. It sounds overly simplistic, but it is key to how they tighten the talent deficit they see against most opponents.
This isn’t a knock on Wake or me taking a shot at their talent. This is how they’ve done things on defense for years now. Even Dave Clawson had an aggressive defensive scheme that looked to get you into long yardage situations by creating havoc up front. The Cards blocked much better last weekend with Anwar O’Neal back in the lineup. They will need to build on that this weekend.
THIS COULD BE THE GAME WHERE WE SEE THE PASSING GAME OPEN UP
Wake Forest has not allowed an explosive pass this season. They’ve only allowed one explosive in the run game as well, as they look to keep everything in front of them as a defensive identity. The goal of limiting explosives has worked very well for the Deacs, but it has also led to teams having a field day with intermediate passes. Wake is allowing teams to complete 86% of their passes because they are fine with teams taking the short options on passing plays.
Darien Mensah set an ACC record for consecutive completions last week, but Akron was able to hit nearly all of their passes in their week one matchup with a true freshman quarterback and a backup who had barely seen the field. The Wake game plan is intentional, and it has worked at times. They want to shorten the game by limiting possessions, and the Miami game saw some success in a way. Miami was able to move the ball like they wanted, but their first drive took up half of the first quarter, and they only put up 21 points until the fourth quarter. Wake was able to keep things fairly close against a much more talented team.
Louisville has been extremely explosive on offense with an explosive play rate of 19%. In this game, they will have an opportunity to work the intermediate passing game in a way that we haven’t seen yet. Lincoln Kienholz has shown flashes of being a strong pocket passer, but he hasn’t had to do so consistently. What we have been able to see from this offense is the ability to spread the ball around to different areas of the field. This is something that Miami was able to do well last weekend. I think the Cards could do the same with multiple options in the passing game.
WAKE FOREST WILL HAVE TO FIND OPTIONS IN THEIR RUNNING GAME
The Deacs offense has had some struggles running the football this year, and they will enter this game with a quarterback who isn’t fully healthy and a starting running back who may have been concussed in their last game. Wake’s running backs have combined for 14 more carries than Issac Brown on the season, which tells you how much of an impact they have had. The Deacs are coming into this game a little banged up, so there are genuine questions about who they will rely on in the backfield.
This will be the second straight week that the Cards will face a rushing attack that has been underwhelming. They allowed SMU to break off multiple long runs last week even with this being the case, so they will have to have a better plan this weekend. My somewhat educated guess is that they put a focus on taking away big plays in the passing game last week, which left them open to the big runs. I don’t know that they will have the same approach this week, so things could look much better for the run defense.
PENALTIES COULD DECIDE WHO WINS THIS GAME
Only a handful of teams in the country love penalties more than Louisville, and Wake Forest is one of them. The Deacs have picked up double-digit penalties in two of their games this year, and they are averaging more penalty yardage per game than the Cards, who have picked up a lot of personal fouls and other 15-yard penalties this season.
There is a talent discrepancy in this game, but I think it’s genuinely impressive that Wake has played as well as they have with the penalties they’ve racked up. The Deacs had 122 yards in penalties last weekend, and they were within striking distance of Miami in the fourth quarter.
Louisville might be 3-0 if they were more disciplined. The Ole Miss performance was marred by personal fouls that led to touchdowns. The lack of discipline for the Cards is also showing up in their overall play. Busted coverages and broken plays have happened too often, and an opportunistic team like Wake will take advantage of those mistakes.
NOTES
- Carlos Hernandez is going to talk a lot of trash. Louisville players have to avoid taking the bait.
- Wake has a two-quarterback package where they will run trick plays with one guy throwing to the other.
- Mark Ivey might be much more aggressive this week. Wake has not been consistently explosive, though they have had some big plays this year.
- Gio Lopez is not likely to be 100%. I’d imagine that will impact his play in some way.
- Jeff Brohm may set a record for misdirection runs and RPOs as he looks to take advantage of Wake’s aggressive defense.
