Sugar. Cigarettes. Alcohol. Take your pick. None of them have been enough to ease the wounds of the past fortnight. Still, there were moments—and we can learn from them. Come for a walk; see what you can find.
@ Cavs
Giannis prophesies that good teams don’t lose two games in a row, and he’s on a self-fulfilling mission, scoring or assisting on the Bucks’ first 23 points. Milwaukee fires on all cylinders early, but Donavon Mitchell’s wizardry—windmill gathers into contested finishes, stop-on-a-dime pull-up threes, hang-time layups—brings the Cavs right back into it. Then, every Bucks fan’s worst nightmare: Giannis exits the game with an injury. And he doesn’t return after the half. The Bucks put in a gutsy third, sticking with the Cavs right down to the final seconds behind strong play from Myles Turner and Ryan Rollins. Then, score tied, shot clock off, Mitchell slices through several defenders and finishes with the left, giving The Land a two-point lead.
With just 5.2 ticks left, AJ Green inbounds to a charging Cole Anthony—head down, trying to conjure a final basket. But the spacing is terrible, and he ventures straight into the hot gates of a congested sideline: Gary Trent Jr., Jericho Sims, three Cavaliers, and the sideline referee. Bodies everywhere. Like he’s been dropped into 300. Lonzo Ball plays magician, teleports in front of and then beside Anthony, who loses his handle in the confusion, and Ball hunts the loose ball, taps it to Craig Porter Jr. for the lay-in at the buzzer. This is madness, you think. “This is Cleveland!” the crowd roars. And they’ve just cut the Bucks’ throat.
Win probability prior to Mitchell’s layup: 42.7%
Win probability after Ball’s steal and Porter’s layup: 26.1%
vs. 76ers
The 76ers are in town, and Allen Iv—err, Tyrese Maxey is cooking. He moves like a hummingbird, slipping past defenders and finishing over and over at the rim, stepping back for deep threes that hit nothing but net. The Bucks are without their superstar, but they put up a fight, with Rollins, Kuzma, and Portis stepping up. And if it isn’t for a questionable offensive foul call on Trent—and subsequent challenge that is somehow upheld—the game ends in regulation.
In overtime, the 76ers win the tip, and this fan wonders if the Bucks have won any this season? Both sides trade misses to start, and when Quentin Grimes gets a defensive board and finds Justin Edwards behind the line in the corner, the Bucks breathe a sigh of relief—he’s 0-6 from that range on the night. Of course, he splashes it, and then doubles down with a pull-up middy to beat the shot clock just 45 seconds later; 76ers by five, the sting all but gone. Yet, the Bucks stay resilient, a Portis hook and Rollins basket off a Trent steal cutting it to one, and the crowd comes back to life.
It seems Grimes ends things once and for all when he nails an end-of-shut-clock three, but Rollins will not be denied, and it remains a two-point game with just a minute to go. Determined, Grimes tries again, this time getting to the free-throw line. He sinks the first, but it’s on the second shot—a miss—that the game is finally over. Edwards snags the offensive board—Philly’s 11th of the night to just three for the Bucks—and Grimes finds his way back to the line where he won’t miss again.
Win probability after Grimes’ missed free throw: 21.4%
Win probability after Edwards’ offensive rebound: 13%
vs. Pistons
The scores might be 0-0 to start, but the Bucks are already hanging off the edge of the cliff—the Eastern Conference-leading Detroit Pistons have arrived at Fiserv, winners of 11 straight. The Bucks do surprisingly well for much of the first half, mostly behind the shot-making of one Bobby Buckets, and it’s a still-within-reach nine-point game when Rolllins makes a contested driving finish with 1:35 left on the clock. Get a stop and a score and it’s game on in the second half. But Rollins is frustrated at the non-call on his finish and lashes out at the ref. Gets T’d up. The frustration is understandable—the Bucks are bottom three in the league in free throw attempts, and Rollins will get the call next year when he’s an established up-and-coming star—but right now it’s costly. Cade Cunningham hits the technical free throw, and the Pistons go on a 7-0 run to end the half, capped off by an Ausar Thompson transition dunk following a swipe from a still-very-frustrated Rollins. Giannis and Kevin Porter Jr. can’t return soon enough.
Win probability after Rollins’ layup: 13.9%
Win probability after Thompson’s dunk: 4.4%
vs. Trail Blazers
In an alternate reality, Kyle Kuzma’s drawn charge with 18.5 seconds left in the first quarter results in a Bucks’ score on the other end that makes it a one-possession game. More than that, it shifts the Bucks’ defensive focus, and they open the second with a renewed ferocity and attention to detail that spurs a run based on stops and scores. Turner gets in on the action, finding his defensive mojo, and the team moves like marionettes under the control of a master puppeteer. Ends the half with a double-digit lead. In our reality, Kuzma’s effort is in vain, and the Bucks go down by 12 at the half. 19 at three-quarter time. 31 at the 8:41 mark of the fourth. They cut it back to 12 to end, making the history books appear more respectable, but this was all garbahj time, and this game—this collective effort—was just that. Trash.
Win probability after Kuzma draws the charge in an alternate reality: 92%
Win probability after Kuzma draws the charge in our reality: 41%
@ Heat
NBA Cup, the Bucks live for this. “Undefeated. Never lost!” they scream as if LaVar. Fast forward to the fourth, it’s winning time. The scene is set and the reflectional symmetry is the stuff of gods (or at least screenwriters): the Heat have won five straight, the Bucks have lost five straight. Trent, back in the starting lineup after six games off the pine, hits a three to reduce the Miami lead to six. No Giannis, no Porter, no Taurean Prince, fans turning on them, but they’re in this, stifling the best offence in the league. A minute goes by, and the scores remain the same until Tyler Herro decides to do something about it, making a decelerating floater from nine feet. In the blink of an eye, Rollins slithers baseline to get it right back, and a Heat turnover gives the Bucks the ball.
Trent misses a tough look from the left corner, and the possession gets chaotic—the rebound turns into a pinball, Kuzma becomes the flipper, and tries to fire the ball through Green’s chest. Somehow, it gets to Trent, who’s relocated from the left to the right corner, and he splashes it home. The bench rises, the stakes too. So does your pulse. You don’t know why, but the moment feels perfect. And then it hits you—left corner miss, right corner make. Reflectional symmetry.
Bam Adebayo and Rollins trade big buckets, and soon enough, the Bucks have possession, down three, shot clock turned off, Trent already back in the right corner. Watching. Waiting. Hands ready. The action is high—Rollins finds Green finds Turner—and he’s as decisive as he’s been all night, fires away from three, six ticks on the clock. But it’s iron, and after Davion Mitchell comes down with the rebound, Trent—still all alone in the corner, hands still ready—eventually concedes he’s not getting the shot. And the Bucks aren’t getting that elusive win.
Win probability after Trent’s relocation three: 15.1%
Win probability after Turner’s miss: 6.5%
@ Knicks
Bucks, Knicks. It’s Friday night at MSG, NBA Cup dreams on the line. Giannis returns—praise the gods—and the Bucks get off to a hot start, with string music in the first so good it’d make Hans Zimmer proud. The scoreboard reads like a game of tag: 37-33 after one, 62-61 at the half, 92-88 after three. It’s a game of runs, but neither side can break away. In the fourth, the home crowd is relentless, the pressure building, but the Bucks’ dam holds. Then a crack—Miles McBride hits a 27-footer. He follows it up with a defensive rebound and splashes another from deep. The water starts gushing through. A possession later, Josh Hart gets the board and finds Marquette alum Tyler Kolek, who hits another triple, and the geyser is too much, the dam collapsing. Time out, Bucks; Knicks up 13.
Somehow, the Bucks stay the course, do their best Phil Swift, and spam the dam with Flex Tape. It almost holds too. But a costly foul by Giannis sends Jalen Brunson to the line for three free throws, and the Bucks run out of tape. Game, Knicks. The Bucks head to the locker room losers of seven straight—their longest losing streak since the franchise-worst 15-win season of 2013–14. Yikes.
Win probability to start the third: 26%
Win probability after the Kolek’s three: 4.1%
vs. Nets
Once more into the fray. Into the last good fight they’ll ever know… Kevin Porter Jr. is back, and the Bucks look like a different team from the jump; the rotation is just so much more balanced. Porter goes to brush the dust off, but there is none, and he connects on his first triple, goes on to finish the half a perfect 4/4 from the field (including three from downtown). Brooklyn is without its, um, stars? But their rookies step up, Danny Wolf showing he’s got some teeth—four threes, an off-the-bounce flush, a notice-me 17 points by the major break. The Bucks have had enough, though. Giannis turns into Liam Neeson, gets the and-one to go on Wolf, pulls out a tooth. Bucks up 18. Then, sick of hearing about Noah Clowney’s shooting against the Bucks—KABOOM!—Turner detonates one on his head. And the Bucks never look back… live and die on fly from this day.
Win probability after Wolf’s fourth three: 79.9%
Win probability after Giannis’ and-one: 96.9%
@ Wizards
Directions for viewing:
- Check the schedule. See they’re playing the lowly Wizards, who have won just 2 games all season long and are without Alex Sarr—their leading scorer and arguably best player.
- Note that the Bucks are finally healthy, fresh off a tune-up game against the Danny Wolf-led Nets.
- Convince yourself they’re ready to remind the world of the optimism of the season’s opening week and a half.
- Relax as KPJ lives up to your expectations and the hype. Revel in his dominance. Enjoy the swag of his back-to-back threes that force a timeout, Bucks up 16. Think that this is done—game over. Know it’s probably not.
- Furrow your brows at all the Marvin Bagley III second-chance points, the CJ McCollum layups going right, the Cam Whitmore dunks.
- Shake your head at Portis, at how he’s blind to the Justin Champagnie layup to beat the third-quarter horn.
- Feel it when KPJ grabs his back, heads to the sidelines.
- Curse when Giannis falls victim to his ego again, chucks a fall-away middy with the game on the line, then flops on the miss and doesn’t get back on defence.
- Hold your breath as it leads to a clutch Khris Middleton three. Wince at the poetic irony.
- Expect Giannis to split the free throws and McCollum to hit the running, contested three against the pressure of the shot-clock. Hand him the heart that’s been ripped out of your chest.
- Stare, numb—the rage festering away inside—when the final siren blows. When you’re at a loss for words. When you bleed green and cream, but can’t take much more of this.
- Bang your head on the bricks. Then get ready to do it all again.
Win probability after KPJ’s back-to-back threes: 95.9%
Win probability after Portis concedes the layup to Champagnie: 71.6%
vs. Pistons
The Bucks are down, and big media is up and about, Giannis trade request rumours riding wavelengths across the globe. And just when it seems things can’t get any worse, Giannis leaves the game in the first three minutes with an ominous lower leg injury. Lillard, Tatum, Halliburton. The images flash through the forefront of Bucks fans’ minds, uninvited. Somewhere in the back, Durant and Kobe do too.
But there’s a game to be played and the Bucks are hanging in it—somehow, after being down 18—against the Eastern Conference leading Detroit Pistons. It’s 7:18 in the fourth, Pistons up four, and Porter has just tracked down a defensive board. He lopes the ball across half-court on the right side, eyes up like any good guard does. Then he spots Green on the opposite wing and skips the ball ahead. Somewhere, Andre Miller smiles. Green catches it in stride and rises for three. Bucket. 19 seconds later, Kuzma finds Green again and it’s never in doubt. Same spot, same result. Bucks up two.
The game ebbs and flows for the next five or so minutes, looking for a hero. Enter Jericho Sims. Down two, Rollins misses on a tough drive, but in a twist of poetic justice, it’s the Bucks who get the offensive rebound, Sims laying in the put-back. He converts the and-one, nabs himself a career high 15 points—to go along with a career high 14 boards—and the bi-polar Bucks pull it out. What in the world is going on?
Win probability prior to Green’s back-to-back threes: 27.3%
Win probability after Sims’ and-one: 55.4%
Volume 3 speaks to the Bucks’ volatility. When things click, they can hang with the best of them, but they’ve got absolutely zero margin for error, and compound this with a lack of self-awareness, carrying themselves like an All-Star squad, too cool to do the dirty stuff. The lessons are there, the moments highlighted. But is anyone listening?
