There’s still a lot of season left and a lot of things could happen between now and April. However, it seems like a good time to look back on the previews posted back in October and evaluate where we are
now in relation.
First there’s the standard preview I do every year where I look at who left, who was added, and some strengths and weaknesses and make some vague predictions. Then, because I like to have fun with it, I always do some SWAGs as a secondary preview. I’ll quote from both liberally and critique myself.
What are the goals for this team?
The team needs to be hyper-focused on the horizon — a growth mentality, encouraging learning through mistakes has to be preached from the top down. It’s process over results, continual progress, and growth at every level. Whatever it takes to set this team up for success when Tatum returns.
Specifically, that means high end performers gain more comfort and experience in larger roles, which should in theory help take some of the load off Tatum once he returns.
Support and role players need to continue refining their craft, providing reliable production in their best skills without taking too much off the table with their limitations.
I’ll stop there and say that this team has far exceeded everyone’s (except maybe their own) expectations by doing exactly what I said above. Well done to everyone involved.
The front office needs to identify who is going to be here long term, and maximize their returns for anyone that isn’t.
Through it all, I do think it is important to continue a culture of focus on winning and developing good, lasting habits. I’m not in favor of full-on tanking or coasting unless legitimate injuries force the team to focus on development in the last month or two.
On one hand, Brad Stevens should probably look to duck completely out of the tax if only to reset the clock on the repeater penalties. On the other hand, he should also keep an eye out for adding talent as it becomes available, even if it means increasing the payroll and taxes.
See, there’s proof that I was never officially in favor of tanking (Though if pumped with truth serum I’d have to admit that I contemplated supporting it for a bit, but you didn’t read that here. I deny everything. Everything in parenthesis is not admissible in court.)
So I’m predicting that they make a trade around the deadline that probably sheds some salary but also brings back a decent center option (don’t ask me who that is, my crystal ball is hazy at best on this).
Still TBD on this one and I stand by it.
If you forced me to predict the number of wins for this season, I’d guess 40 with an exaggerated shrug. I could see 35, and I could see 47.
Oh so wishy washy! Have a take and stand by it already!
Like I said, still a lot of season left, but they’ve already won 23 games and are on a 53 win pace. So even the optimistic side of my prediction was short of where they are currently trending. Better luck next time. And a mental note to have a stronger take, even if it is wildly wrong.
Let’s move on to the SWAGs where I focused on how fans would approach this season.
Nothing is more predictable than this. At first, fans will largely be looking to trade him for whatever we can get. He’ll be greeted and treated like a short timer with mild interest, mostly for what his trade value will end up being. Then, he’ll start scoring, like a lot. People will see his box scores and raw scoring stats and wonder just how he landed in Boston in a salary dump trade.
I know the Celtics pretty well (though results may vary), but I know Celtics fans very well. I think I nailed this.
So eventually, he’s going to win over fans and people are going to flip from trying to trade him to trying to see how the team can re-sign him to a “reasonable” (i.e. team-friendly) contract going forward. I’ve stopped trying to predict what Brad Stevens will do (mostly because he keeps exceeding my expectations) but if I had to guess, I’d say that Simons will be traded at the deadline, just after a two-week stretch of averaging 25 points per game.
Like I said, still TBD on the trade predictions, but again, not a bad prediction that I would make again.
I talked about the center options without giving much of a take or prediction but it was all in fun so I’ll skip that part. Next I went to the wing options.
I think the wings will be cycled in and out of the rotation all year. It will be less a Myers-Briggs test and more of a Rorschach test. They will each see something different, and it might change as we get multiple looks at the same players over time. Sometimes Jordan Walsh will look like Herb Jones and sometimes he’ll look like Average Joe. Sometimes fans will be saying “why not Minott?” and other times they’ll be saying “sorry, but it’s not Minott.” I think people want to believe in Baylor Scheierman, but if he can’t hit shots from deep, he’s going to find it hard to win people over. Hugo Gonzalez is a rookie, so of course he’s going to have his peaks and valleys and get a lot of rope.
So far so good on this one. Joe Mazzulla has rotated wings in and out of the lineup for matchup reasons, recent play reasons, and who knows, maybe even vibes (or whatever it is that makes Joe tick). For the most part, every button he’s pressed has worked out great, so nobody is going to argue with it.
Of course we’ll talk ourselves into Jayson Tatum coming back and leading us in the playoffs
I mean, this was probably true back in the Fall, but it is especially true today. I’ll write more about this soon, but so much of this season boils down to how Tatum looks and how fast he can re-integrate into the system. Can’t wait for it to happen (but of course I want to be super cautious about it too).
I don’t know where the team will be in the standings at that point. I don’t know what kind of team is going to be around him at that point. But I know if he’s on the court, we will believe. And honestly, I wouldn’t change that for anything. Go Tatum, go Celtics!
I couldn’t have said it better myself, …I guess because I did say it.
Go Tatum, go Celtics!
