Before the Kansas City Chiefs’ Week 8 game against the Washington Commanders, every one of our Arrowhead Pride panelists picked Kansas City to win. Our aggregate prediction of a 34-16 win was among the closest
of the season, carrying 18 points of error from the 28-7 final. Three-quarters of our contributors thought the Chiefs were on the way to a blowout — while just 36% of our readers thought so.
In Week 9, the Chiefs are on the road to face the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Kansas City is favored by 1.5 points.
Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.
Nate Christensen (@natech32)
I have zero doubts that the Chiefs’ offense is going to score this game. The Bills’ defense is bad at all levels, and the Kansas City offense is humming. Whether it’s in the run game, downfield shots or quarterback Patrick Mahomes methodically finding soft spots underneath, the Chiefs will put up yards and points.
But I expect the Bills to do the same. They don’t have the same passing game as Kansas City, but it’s fairly close — and they have a superior running game. They will sustain long drives based on how good their offensive line and running back James Cook are.
I expect a relatively low-scoring version of this game, but both teams will sustain long, efficient drives that limit the number of possessions. Ultimately, Kansas City has the better units on both sides of the ball, so I think they win.
Chiefs 27, Bills 24
John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)
Only one of the last six games between these two teams has been decided by more than one score. The Bills are at home — and have won all four of the most recent regular-season matchups. So I’d be a fool to call for the Chiefs to win this one going away, right?
But that’s what I’m going to do. I think what we’ve been seeing in recent weeks is a Kansas City team that is sick and tired of hearing about how it’s past its prime — and that all of its 2024 success came from a combination of luck and NFL favoritism. Petty Patrick Mahomes and his teammates have had enough of this garbage. On Sunday afternoon, they intend to show the whole world — or at least all of it that’s watching CBS — that none of this has been a fluke.
Chiefs 31, Bills 13
Maurice Elston (@MrMauriceElston)
The Chiefs enter this matchup riding a three-game winning streak — and have won five of their last six. They’ve dominated on both sides of the ball during this stretch, showing the balance and confidence expected of a contender. Last week against Washington, the Chiefs started slow, but made key halftime adjustments. In the second half, they shut Washington out — while the offense erupted once again.
Buffalo, meanwhile, has traditionally had Kansas City’s number in the regular season, which makes this game tricky to call. But this year’s Bills don’t resemble the powerhouse of recent seasons. Quarterback Josh Allen has been forced to play nearly flawless football to give Buffalo a chance, largely because the receiving corps lacks a true difference-maker. Running back James Cook has become the team’s focal point, but he’ll face a disciplined Kansas City defense that’s been stout against the run.
With the linebackers flowing well, safeties attacking downhill — and defensive tackle Mike Pennel returning to bolster the interior — the Chiefs should be able to slow Cook down. They won’t stop him altogether — but if they can hold him under 100 rushing yards, it’s hard to see Buffalo pulling out a win.
Expect Kansas City’s offense to remain efficient — and the defense to control the tempo — against a Bills team still searching for its old identity.
Chiefs 30, Bills 21
Mark Gunnels (@MarkAGunnels)
Before the season began, I had this game as a loss because Buffalo always beats Kansas City in the regular season. But I think this time, it will be different.
Unlike other years, the Chiefs don’t have much room for error. Despite the three-game winning streak, they’re still in third place in the AFC West. And when you couple that with the Bills looking very lackluster on both sides of the ball, I think it’s a recipe for the Chiefs to go get this game. Buffalo’s offense has regressed a lot this year. They don’t have any separators at receiver — so if you can contain James Cook, you pretty much have them where you want them.
On the flip side, I just don’t see how Buffalo will be able to defend all the pass-catchers Patrick Mahomes has at his disposal.
Chiefs 34, Bills 27
Caleb James (@CJScoobs)
The NFL’s premier rivalry is set for its next chapter. In seasons past, the regular-season version of Chiefs vs. Bills has meant much less to Kansas City, but at third place in the AFC West and seventh in the AFC, this game is teetering on must-win status.
Fortunately, the Chiefs’ offense has hit its stride, scoring at least 28 points in four consecutive games — and Patrick Mahomes is the front-runner for MVP. This week, they’ll face a Bills defense that’s a shell of its former self — and it could lead to a big-time shootout.
The Bills’ defense has been gashed against the run, and while their pass defense is statistically good, it has been aided by poor quarterback play. That won’t be the case this week.
Mahomes is having an MVP-caliber season, wide receiver Rashee Rice is fully back and tight end Travis Kelce is playing with renewed energy. Running back Isiah Pacheco will be out for the game, but this opens the door for rookie Brashard Smith and veteran Kareem Hunt to play extended reps.
Defensively, the name of the game will be to contain Josh Allen and slow down James Cook. The Bills’ offense is elite, and the first team to collect a few stops should win the game.
Chiefs 42, Bills 38
Rocky Magaña (@RockyMagana)
Listen, I’ve been bullish on the Chiefs all year — even when things were looking rough. I’m not backing down on my prediction that this team wins the Super Bowl — especially now that the offense looks utterly unstoppable. I think the early-season losses were the kick in the pants this team needed to lock in.
They find themselves in the unusual position of being the hunter instead of the hunted. And I don’t know about you, but if I’m the rest of the AFC, I wouldn’t want Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid stalking me in the tall grass. I don’t see the loss of Isiah Pacheco slowing this team down very much.
The Bills have Josh Allen, James Cook and a good coaching staff, but their wide receivers are far from elite — and their defense is hot garbage. This game is going to be a close one, like it always is between these two teams, but the difference this year is that the Chiefs are going to beat the Bills in the regular season and the playoffs.
Chiefs 35, Bills 31
Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief)
I’m not going to predict a shootout between the league’s best quarterbacks because I expect both teams to lean on the run game and on short passes. I’ll be surprised if there are enough drives — or enough clock stoppages — for either team to exceed 30 points.
The Chiefs’ defense has played well the last few weeks, but Josh Allen and the Bills know defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s schemes intimately at this point. I expect Kansas City’s defenders to have some trouble with Allen and running back James Cook — but I expect Buffalo’s defense to have a bit more trouble with Kansas City’s offense.
The Chiefs have been able to afford a somewhat nonchalant attitude about the regular-season version of this rivalry in the last couple of years, but they enter this contest with minimal margin for error. Also, Patrick Mahomes is the clear MVP frontrunner midway through the season. Much of Mahomes’ candidacy, however, will depend on how he performs against his biggest rival. I expect a very focused and efficient performance from the offense against Buffalo’s depleted defense.
Ultimately, I think the Chiefs have significant advantages over the Bills on defense and among pass-catchers. I expect that overall advantage to deliver a Chiefs victory — albeit by the type of narrow score that has defined this rivalry.
Chiefs 28, Bills 24
Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)
In what is always the game of the year — whether it happens in the regular season or the postseason — I anticipate this being a fun, competitive game down to the wire. Whoever has the ball last generally wins these matchups, so why should this one be any different? Patrick Mahomes is playing at an entirely different level from everyone else in the league. He finally has a full complement of receivers — and while the offensive line is banged up, it has the depth to make it through the season. Add in a defense that’s held its last two opponents to a combined seven points, and everything points to the Chiefs being the better, stronger team — and the one with momentum coming into this contest.
They also might be the hungrier team, coming off a tough Super Bowl loss and a slow start that drew plenty of doubts. These Chiefs were written off by many before the last few weeks, and now they’re starting to show the league what this was supposed to look like. They’re motivated to position themselves for the No. 1 seed — which won’t be easy this season — and taking down the Bills in Buffalo would help.
I expect this to be another Mahomes game, with big plays from wide receivers Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice — and maybe a little less from tight end Travis Kelce than we’ve seen the last couple of weeks. The matchups in Buffalo don’t really matter. It may come down to this: can the Chiefs play to their ability and keep the ball away from Josh Allen in a game-winning or game-tying situation? I think that this time, they will.
Chiefs 35, Bills 27
With their predictions aggregated, our panelists expect the Chiefs to win 33—26.
What do you think?
2025 Standings
| TW | LW | Staffer | W | L | Pct | Err |
| 1 | 1 | Maurice Elston | 6 | 2 | 0.7500 | 22.8 |
| 2 | 2 | Jared Sapp | 6 | 2 | 0.7500 | 25.5 |
| 3 | 3 | Rocky Magaña | 5 | 3 | 0.6250 | 22.3 |
| 4 | 4 | Caleb James | 5 | 3 | 0.6250 | 22.8 |
| 5 | 5 | John Dixon | 5 | 3 | 0.6250 | 23.8 |
| 6 | 6 | Mark Gunnels | 5 | 3 | 0.6250 | 25.8 |
| 7 | 7 | Matt Stagner | 5 | 3 | 0.6250 | 29.5 |
| 8 | 8 | Nate Christensen | 4 | 4 | 0.5000 | 25.8 |
In Week 8, John Dixon and Caleb James led our panelists. Their 30-12 and 33-7 predictions each had 10 points of error. Rocky Magaña’s prediction for 35-13 Kansas City win missed by a total of 14 points.
To calculate a prediction’s points of error, the differences between the prediction and the actual score in point spread, home team score and away team score are added together. For example, a prediction calls for a 17-10 Chiefs win. They end up winning 16-10, so there were two points of error: the point spread was off by one point, the Kansas City score missed by one point and the opponent’s score was predicted correctly. But if the Chiefs lose the game 17-10, there were 28 points of error in the prediction: the point spread was off by 14 (the difference between +7 and -7) and both scores missed by 7.
